Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. If Tom Brady is missing four games, how do we calculate his fantasy value? Why handcuff running backs are worth more than they're actually worth. Doubling up on sacks with defenses. And the sneaky value of Brandon LaFell.
Question 1
My main league drafts a team as QB. I'm trying to determine Tom Brady's worth since I will automatically get Garoppolo when Brady is out if I draft the NE QB. When I run the customized scoring gizmo, and add the two QBs together, NE QB ranks as 3rd best, ahead of Peyton Manning. That just doesn't seem right. How to I determine the NE QB's worth? Love the product and thanks for your help.
Dave (MOJO) Smith (Avon Park, FL)
There’s some behind-the-curtain stats in there. That’s what’s fouling things up. Brady is suspended for four games, but if we give him only 12 games, he’s not even in the top 20, and that ain’t right. Nobody is selecting Alex Smith or Andy Dalton before Brady, even though those guys would finish with more numbers in 16 games than Brady would manage in 12. So even though Brady may play only 12-13 games, there are some hidden numbers behind the curtain to make him appear higher. So let’s do this. Let’s assume all quarterbacks will play 16 games. Even guys like Sam Bradford, Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler (even though it might be a surprise if any of those guys actually plays 16 games). But we’ll put just about all of the guys down for 16 games. For New England, we’ll go with Brady playing 14 games and Garoppolo playing two (to reflect the possibility that Brady might have his suspension reduced or even eliminated entirely). And a few other teams I will go with an 8-8 split in games between their top 2 passers (Jets, Browns and Texans). Anyway, if we follow that route, I end up with New England ranking #10 at quarterback.
| TEAM QUARTERBACK PROJECTIONS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Tm | Player | Pass | Run | TDP | TDR | Points |
| 1. | IND | Andrew Luck | 4,704 | 266 | 35.4 | 2.6 | 419 |
| 2. | GB | Aaron Rodgers | 4,514 | 240 | 38.4 | 1.4 | 412 |
| 3. | NO | Drew Brees | 4,673 | 39 | 32.2 | .6 | 366 |
| 4. | DEN | Peyton Manning | 4,435 | 0 | 33.3 | .1 | 355 |
| 5. | ATL | Matt Ryan | 4,483 | 68 | 30.0 | .4 | 349 |
| 6. | PIT | Ben Roethlisberger | 4,530 | 53 | 29.1 | .3 | 348 |
| 7. | NYG | Eli Manning | 4,451 | 32 | 29.9 | .2 | 346 |
| 8. | DAL | Tony Romo | 4,198 | 42 | 32.2 | .3 | 343 |
| 9. | CAR | Cam Newton | 3,643 | 641 | 23.3 | 4.6 | 340 |
| 10. | NE | Brady / Garoppolo | 4,222 | 41 | 30.3 | .7 | 336 |
| 11. | SD | Philip Rivers | 4,245 | 74 | 28.7 | .2 | 334 |
| 12. | SEA | Russell Wilson | 3,612 | 534 | 24.7 | 3.4 | 333 |
| 13. | PHI | Sam Bradford | 4,245 | 67 | 27.6 | 1.0 | 329 |
| 14. | DET | Matthew Stafford | 4,324 | 80 | 25.7 | 1.6 | 327 |
| 15. | BAL | Joe Flacco | 4,118 | 84 | 27.7 | 1.5 | 325 |
| 16. | MIA | Ryan Tannehill | 3,960 | 264 | 25.0 | 1.3 | 325 |
| 17. | ARI | Carson Palmer | 4,277 | 29 | 25.3 | .2 | 318 |
| 18. | SF | Colin Kaepernick | 3,485 | 520 | 19.8 | 1.9 | 306 |
| 19. | NYJ | Fitzpatrick / G.Smith | 3,680 | 253 | 23.0 | 1.6 | 302 |
| 20. | TEN | Marcus Mariota | 3,406 | 595 | 17.7 | 3.6 | 301 |
| 21. | WAS | Robert Griffin III | 3,771 | 370 | 18.8 | 2.2 | 301 |
| 22. | CHI | Jay Cutler | 3,722 | 151 | 22.8 | .8 | 293 |
| 23. | MIN | Teddy Bridgewater | 3,722 | 192 | 20.6 | 1.1 | 288 |
| 24. | JAC | Blake Bortles | 3,532 | 302 | 19.2 | 1.3 | 284 |
| 25. | CIN | Andy Dalton | 3,647 | 151 | 21.2 | 2.7 | 283 |
| 26. | KC | Alex Smith | 3,485 | 268 | 20.0 | 1.2 | 281 |
| 27. | TB | Jameis Winston | 3,722 | 61 | 20.6 | .4 | 275 |
| 28. | BUF | EJ Manuel | 3,324 | 277 | 19.1 | 2.0 | 271 |
| 29. | OAK | Derek Carr | 3,516 | 48 | 20.6 | .4 | 263 |
| 30. | STL | Nick Foles | 3,390 | 106 | 19.2 | .9 | 257 |
| 31. | CLE | Manziel / McCown | 3,320 | 258 | 14.8 | 2.3 | 251 |
| 32. | HOU | Hoyer / Mallett | 3,326 | 29 | 19.0 | .3 | 245 |
Question 2
If I remember correctly, the last time the Patriots got spanked by the NFL for transgressions, they took out their aggressions on their opponents. Do you expect the Pats to run up the score again this year?
Scott Kopischke (Menomonee Falls, WI)
I’m sure they’d like to. But they don’t have the same kind of talent that the 2007 Patriots did. They’ve got all kinds of problems on defense, with their top three cornerbacks all gone. Their offensive line isn’t as good, and I don’t think their skill guys are great. They’ve got Brady and Gronkowski, of course, but their other guys are castoffs. Edelman is a steady slot guy, but he’s not a difference makere. LaFell didn’t do much of anything in Carolina; he’s pretty ordinary. (I’m not saying Edelman and LaFell can’t put up good numbers, but they’re not receivers that other teams fear.) And LeGarrette Blount is a former undrafted free agent who’s been dumped by three other teams. The Titans and Steelers both cut him, and the Bucs traded him away. When the Steelers gave up on Blount halfway through last year, no other team was even interested in him. To me, Patriots don’t look like a Super Bowl contender (though I guess they, since no AFC team looks dominant).
Question 3
12-team 0.5 PPR, each franchise can keep a max of 3 players, you cannot keep any player selected in rounds 1 and 2 from the previous fantasy season. I plan on keeping Mark Ingram in the 6th and Davante Adams in the 13th. I thought Carlos Hyde in the 4th round was an option, until I ran the projections curtailed to my league, resulting in 133.6 points (27th for all RBs). I think I can trade Hyde to an owner who has Brandon LaFell, Charles Johnson, and Martavis Bryant, all who can be kept in the 12th round. According to the projections, I should target LaFell in the trade. Can you elaborate on why you have LaFell projected for approximately 20+ more catches than Johnson/Bryant? All seem like the number 2 receiving options in their respective passing offenses.
William D'allesandro (Huntington, NY)
Adams, Johnson, Bryant. Those are all neat, emerging young players. I like them all. But LaFell probably will outperform all of them. I can’t guarantee that. Maybe Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb gets hurt, clearing the way for Adams to become a top-10 receiver. Johnson I believe is Minnesota’s No. 1 receiver. And I read something the other day about Bryant (in the eyes of a newspaper reporter standing watching the practice) looking really good. But LaFell is a veteran who knows what he’s doing, and he’s working with a good quarterback and in a good offense. LaFell, recall, was hardly even active at the start of last season. The Patriots opened last season with Kenbrell Thompkins as their starting receiver. It was after two games that they ditched Thompkins and instead went with LaFell. And in the ensuing 17 games (just more than a season), LaFell caught 87 passes for 1,072 yards and 9 TDs. I think that’s kind of what he is, and I think that makes him a notch better than those other receivers you mention. I don’t expect any of them will catch 70 passes.
Question 4
I've often wondered about the handcuff theory with RBs. Is there any data that shows that handcuffs typically out preform the other rb2 typically on the roster that would otherwise be used?
STEVE WEBER (Paso Robles, CA)
The idea of drafting a handcuff isn’t that they’re going finish with better overall numbers. What you’re shooting for is something special. Roy Helu Jr., for example, might catch 40 passes and run for 300 yards. Maybe he scores 3 TDs. So he will outperform many of the league’s handcuff-style backup running backs. Helu might finish with better overall numbers than backs like James Starks, Ryan Mathews, DeAngelo Williams and David Johnson (of Arizona). But with those other backs, when the starters ahead of them get hurt (if they get hurt) they then become full-time players who are top-10 fantasy backs in given weeks if the matchup is right. So even with less overall production than Helu, they’re way more valuable in fantasy leagues.
Question 5
Last year, the 12-team league I have been in for 8 years decided to change the amount of points received for a sack from 1 point, to 2 points. I think this is a terrible decision as it now rewards teams that sack the quarterback the same amount as teams that create more possessions and scoring opportunities by taking the ball away via an interception or fumble recovery. The commish refuses to revert back to our old rules. What is your opinion? Should a sack be equal in points to an interception or fumble recovery?
Riley May (Denver, CO)
I wouldn’t worry about it too much. In your league, there are three stats driving the value of defenses – sacks, takeaways and touchdowns (scored on returns). Of those three, sacks is the easiest to forecast. Under this scoring system, we’re making sacks more important. So that’s a good thing (or at least an OK thing) isn’t it? All you need to do come up with a defense that sacks the quarterback, and you should be fine at this position. And it’s not as if this scoring change is radically altering the values of the defense. Look at the chart below, which shows how defensive production changed. The “old” numbers show 6 points for TDs, 1 for sacks and 2 for takeaways. The “new” stats include an extra point for each sack. This results in four defenses moving up more than 4 spots (headlined by the Ravens and Giants moving up 9-10 spots). I’ve got those four defenses in bold. Five defenses fell by more than 4 spots, and I’ve got them tagged with the scientifically proven black dot. All of the moving defenses had notable pass rushes (45-plus sacks for the upwardly mobile defenses, and 36 and under for the decliners. The scoring system is what it is. At this point, probably best to start researching which teams will have the best and worst pass rushes (and which will allow the most and fewest sacks).
| CHANGING DEFENSES IN RILEY MAY LEAGUE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Old | Rk | New | Rk | Diff |
| Philadelphia | 171 | 1 | 220 | 1 | -- |
| Buffalo | 140 | 3 | 194 | 2 | +1 |
| Houston | 144 | 2 | 182 | 3 | -1 |
| Green Bay | 133 | 4 | 174 | 4 | -- |
| New England | 120 | 5t | 160 | 5t | -- |
| St. Louis | 120 | 5t | 160 | 5t | -- |
| Baltimore | 107 | 17 | 156 | 7 | +10 |
| Pittsburgh | 119 | 7 | 152 | 10t | -3 |
| Denver | 111 | 11 | 152 | 10t | +1 |
| Detroit | 110 | 12t | 152 | 10t | +2 |
| NY Giants | 105 | 19t | 152 | 10t | +9 |
| Miami | 113 | 9 | 152 | 10t | -- |
| • Arizona | 115 | 8 | 150 | 14t | -6 |
| Carolina | 110 | 12t | 150 | 14t | -2 |
| Jacksonville | 105 | 19t | 150 | 14t | +5 |
| Minnesota | 109 | 14t | 150 | 14t | -- |
| • San Francisco | 112 | 10 | 148 | 17 | -7 |
| Indianapolis | 105 | 19t | 146 | 18 | 1 |
| Seattle | 105 | 19t | 142 | 19 | -- |
| • Cleveland | 109 | 14t | 140 | 20 | -6 |
| Chicago | 99 | 22 | 138 | 21t | +1 |
| Kansas City | 92 | 25 | 138 | 21t | +4 |
| • Dallas | 108 | 16 | 136 | 23 | -7 |
| Tampa Bay | 98 | 23 | 134 | 24 | -1 |
| Tennessee | 83 | 27 | 122 | 25 | +2 |
| Atlanta | 96 | 24 | 118 | 27t | -3 |
| NY Jets | 73 | 30 | 118 | 27t | +3 |
| Washington | 75 | 29 | 112 | 28 | +1 |
| San Diego | 82 | 28 | 108 | 29 | -1 |
| New Orleans | 72 | 31 | 106 | 30 | +1 |
| • Cincinnati | 84 | 26 | 104 | 31 | -5 |
| Oakland | 62 | 32 | 84 | 32 | -- |
Question 6
I am in a slow draft, 12 team, 2-pt PPR no-transaction league. QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, K, D. 16 man rosters. My draft so far went Gronk-Nelson-Gordon-Edelman-Spiller-Ryan-E.Manning-R.White. I have 2 of the next 8 picks, and in my queue are Blount, Ivory, R. Randle, John Brown, Da. Johnson, R. Mathews, Colston, Ajayi, K.Davis, Bills D. I am also strongly considering 3 QBs just to improve my odds of a monster performance each week. Top remaining QBs are Flacco, Palmer, Bradford, plus the bottom 10. I'd be curious to hear what your approach would be for these next 3-4 rounds.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
You’ve got only two running backs, so you’ll need to add another body there before long. Blount and Ivory don’t really fit the format. At all. I wonder if Devonta Freeman is available. He’s a good pass catcher. I think he’ll be the best back in Atlanta, and maybe a really nice starter-caliber guy in that format. I also don’t see any sign of James White. With his pass-catch ability, he might be the best New England running back in that format. Flacco might be a top-10 quarterback, so he’d be a nice addition, but you’re already probably set with that Ryan-Manning one-two punch.
Question 7
8 Team PPR Keeper League. Starters = 2 QB, 2RB, 4 WR/TE, 1 D, 1 K. Scoring - QB 6 points for passing TDs, everything else at other positions are pretty standard. Owners may keep 0-3 eligible players. Undrafted pickups become 10th Round Keepers; Players drafted rounds 4-15 are Kept 2 rounds earlier than when they were drafted the previous year. I can designate up to 3 of the following players. Which ones do you recommend I keep? Hyde - Round 13; Forsett - Round 10; Latavius Murray - Round 10; Gostkowski Round 10; Tannehill - Round 8; Jeffery - Round 8; Benjamin - Round 6; Graham - Round 2. My instinct is to Keep Forsett, Tannehill and Jeffery. I'm open to criticism and better ideas. What hurts is that I carried Hyde all of last year in the hope that he'd be amazing value as a 13th Round pick this year. Oh well ... I can still keep him if I so choose!
Steven Schipper (Winnipeg, MB)
You’re starting twice as many wide receivers as running backs, and it’s a PPR league. Keep that in mind. So I think you’re on the right track with select wide receivers with those first two picks. Alshon Jeffery is a good value, I believe. I have him as the No. 15 wide receiver on your board, so he would represent a good value at the cost of a sixth-round pick. I don’t see Tannehill in the mix at all. He’s only my 14th quarterback, making him a weak No. 2 in your league (only eight teams). Forsett might catch 70-80 balls, so he’s a shoo-in for one of your spots. The last remaining keeper spot would go to either Murray or Hyde, depending on how they show in the preseason.
Question 8
I am having a few issues this year with selecting my last few keepers. We keep eight guys a year, that simple. We start 3 WR and no flex in a ppr. Julio, E.Sanders, Maclin, Hyde, C.J. Anderson. They seem like a given. The hard part is the next 3 guys. I have a mixed bag for the rest. Stafford, C.J. Spiller, Ivory, Sankey, V.Cruz. Any wisdom is greatly appreciated.
Joe Tristano (Winona, MN)
It’s PPR scoring, so running backs who catch passes are golden. With the way the Saints use their running backs in the passing game, I’m thinking Spiller might be a top-10 running back in that format. I think he’ll catch 70-plus passes. On my board, he’s way higher than Maclin or Hyde. Stafford makes some sense; he’s a good No. 2 quarterback who can be your starter if you don’t get around to selecting somebody better. Hyde, Sankey, Cruz and Ivory are all in contention to be protected, but let’s see them do something in the preseason before making that kind of commitment.