Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Making sense of the Jordy Nelson injury. Projected team touchdowns for each offense. Identifying the best kick returners. What's a fair price tag for a first-round pick? And more.
Question 1
I'm drafting in a league where they award 1 point for every 10 RETURN yards. I'm not happy about this, but want to take advantage because not many teams will catch that in the settings. Do you have any information on who will be the best returners this year? In this format, Jarvis Landry was the #9 WR and Benny Cunningham was #10 RB last year.
Jeff Noordhoff (Indialantic, FL)
I have a couple of thoughts on this topic. Most notably, even though touchbacks are far more prevalent nowadays then in the past, kickoffs are still way more valuable than than punts. NFL teams averaged 910 yards on kickoff returns last year. They averaged only 288 yards on punt returns. So as you look for players who’ll both play in the field and return kicks, it’s better if you can find guys who are returning kickoffs. Also note that if a team is bad, it’s fielding more kickoffs (because it’s allowing more scores). That is, I don’t care so much whether the guy is averaging 24 or 26 yards on his kickoffs; it doesn’t matter. If he’s returning kicks for a team that’s allowing a bunch of field goals and touchdowns, he’ll finish with more return yards. Last year eight teams that lost 10-plus games finished with at least 1,000 yards on kickoff returns (I’ve got them in bold on this chart). But only three teams with 10-plus wins went over 1,000 yards on returns (those teams are tagged with black dots).
| KICKOFF RETURNS IN 2014 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | No | Yards | TD |
| Kansas City | 9-7 | 51 | 1,430 | 1 |
| NY Jets | 4-12 | 58 | 1,342 | 0 |
| Chicago | 5-11 | 55 | 1,290 | 1 |
| • Cincinnati | 10-5-1 | 45 | 1,241 | 0 |
| Atlanta | 6-10 | 50 | 1,174 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 7-9 | 54 | 1,173 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 2-14 | 48 | 1,121 | 0 |
| San Francisco | 8-8 | 45 | 1,104 | 0 |
| St. Louis | 6-10 | 45 | 1,099 | 0 |
| Miami | 8-8 | 41 | 1,082 | 0 |
| • Baltimore | 10-6 | 38 | 1,077 | 1 |
| • Indianapolis | 11-5 | 38 | 1,065 | 0 |
| Jacksonville | 3-13 | 43 | 1,033 | 0 |
| Oakland | 3-13 | 47 | 1,027 | 0 |
| NY Giants | 6-10 | 44 | 1,025 | 0 |
| • Philadelphia | 10-6 | 32 | 874 | 2 |
| • Seattle | 12-4 | 39 | 820 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay | 2-14 | 36 | 819 | 0 |
| Carolina | 7-8-1 | 37 | 805 | 0 |
| • Denver | 12-4 | 32 | 802 | 0 |
| Cleveland | 7-9 | 37 | 801 | 0 |
| • Dallas | 12-4 | 33 | 790 | 0 |
| Washington | 4-12 | 36 | 783 | 0 |
| Buffalo | 9-7 | 33 | 770 | 1 |
| • Pittsburgh | 11-5 | 35 | 758 | 0 |
| • New England | 12-4 | 31 | 693 | 0 |
| • Detroit | 11-5 | 25 | 612 | 0 |
| San Diego | 9-7 | 26 | 577 | 0 |
| • Green Bay | 12-4 | 29 | 555 | 0 |
| New Orleans | 7-9 | 21 | 543 | 0 |
| Houston | 9-7 | 20 | 422 | 0 |
| • Arizona | 11-5 | 22 | 417 | 0 |
So ideally we’re looking guys who return kickoffs and also play regularly in the field, and it will be even better if said player is on a bad NFL team (or at least one that gives up a lot of points). With that in mind, we can kick around a few names. Andre Roberts might return both kickoffs and punts for Washington, and he’s also their No. 3 receiver. If they pull Roberts off the kickoff return team, he would probably be replaced by Chris Thompson, and Thompson should play on some third downs as a scatback. For two of the lesser teams in the AFC South, I have seen notable running backs returning kickoffs in the preseason – Denard Robinson and Bishop Sankey. I can’t promise that will carry into the real games, but maybe. Knile Davis gets a lot of touches as the No. 2 running back in Kansas City, and he’s also really good on kickoff returns – has scored touchdowns two years in a row. Ty Montgomery most likely will return both kickoffs and punts for the Packers, and he’s also probably going to be their No. 3 receiver. Definitely should be drafted in your format. Devin Hester will return both for Atlanta, and he’ll also see plenty of playing time at wide receiver; he needs to be drafted. And Ted Ginn Jr. in Carolina should be the same kind of guy. Finally, Tyler Lockett probably will be the fourth receiver for Seattle, and he’s returning both. A few important situations that need to be looked into. The Steelers have been using Dri Archer on kickoffs and punts, but that might change in the real games. At the team website, they still list Markus Wheaton (kickoffs) and Antonio Brown (punts) as their first-string guys. Similarly, it is logical that Miami would pull Jarvis Landry off special teams. LaMichael James (I think) will handle kickoffs and punts. But Landry is still first-string at the team website. Same deal in Philadelphia. If they use Darren Sproles on punts again, that enhances his value in your league, but I think they’ll instead go with Kenjon Barner returning both kickoffs and punts.
Question 2
I currently have the 8th pick in a 10 team snake draft. I have been offered the 23rd (3rd round) 43rd (5th round) and 63rd (7th round), all for #8. Should I consider, or have him sweeten the pot a little more?
Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)
My gut tells me it’s not enough. And my hunch is that if you squeeze him to throw in a little more, he would probably do so. But if you work strictly off the numbers, they indicate that it’s a fair trade. Suppose, that is, that a 12th-round pick is worth nothing. At that point in the draft, you’re getting late enough that there’s a good chance the guy you pick will be waived before Week 3. Or that the guy you pick might not even be picked by anyone else. That guy, for our purposes, worth nothing. If we then use that player #120 as our starting point and look at how much better the guys are who are selected before him, that can serve as our trade chart. And in this case, player #8 is worth 96 points. Players 23, 43 and 63 are worth 64, 40 and 27 points. So they’re worth 131 combined points, and you’re 35 points ahead with the deal. Trouble is, by keeping that 8th pick overall, you get to keep all 96 of those points in one position in your lineup. And with it being a 10-team league, there’s a good chance you’ll find guys in the late rounds (and off the waiver wire) who’ll dramatically outperform what I’ve calculated their “value” to be.
Question 3
I haven't see you post the number of total offensive touchdowns and total points you project for each team. Could you please do that?
ANDREW THURMAN (Lake Forest Park, WA)
We should really work that into the product somewhere. I was working through the player rankings again last night, polishing everything up for the revised version that went out today. On the weekend, changes are made on the fly. That is, I see a player (or team) do something I like or wasn’t expecting, and I go in and change the projection. Mark Ingram, for example, caught passes on both of the Saints’ first two plays, so I went in and changed his allocation for receiving. Whether that results in Ingram moving up 2, 4 or 6 spots, I really have no idea at the time. It’s quick-hitting changes, as Andy and I work our way through the games, making the alterations as we go. On Wednesday and Thursday morning, it’s different. With that version, I get the order of 1 thru 100 at each position in front of me and slowly work my way down the list. I’m checking to make sure the ordering of the players is what I want. If I like Player X more than Player Y, I bend their projections a little to make them fit. See the difference? But another part of that is the teams themselves. I look at passing yards, rushing yards, passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns, and examine how the teams rank 1 thru 32 in each category. I make changes there, and those are the feeder numbers that affect all of the players on those teams. If I change Dallas from 260 to 265 passing yards, for example, it’s going to cause Dez Bryant to rise by 1 receiving yard per game. That’s the process, but we don’t usually reveal the team numbers that are tied to the individual player numbers. But you ask, and I am happy to share them. Here are expected offensive touchdowns for each team (does not include touchdowns scored on defense or special teams).
| PROJECTED TOUCHDOWNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Green Bay | 35.5 | 15.0 | 50.6 |
| Denver | 33.6 | 15.2 | 48.8 |
| Indianapolis | 36.6 | 11.8 | 48.5 |
| New Orleans | 33.9 | 14.4 | 48.3 |
| Philadelphia | 28.3 | 19.2 | 47.5 |
| New England | 31.2 | 15.7 | 46.9 |
| Dallas | 32.5 | 12.8 | 45.3 |
| NY Giants | 30.6 | 12.8 | 43.4 |
| Pittsburgh | 29.6 | 12.5 | 42.1 |
| Atlanta | 31.2 | 10.2 | 41.4 |
| Seattle | 25.4 | 15.5 | 41.0 |
| Baltimore | 27.7 | 11.8 | 39.5 |
| Cincinnati | 22.1 | 17.4 | 39.5 |
| San Diego | 28.6 | 10.4 | 39.0 |
| Detroit | 24.8 | 12.8 | 37.6 |
| Kansas City | 20.2 | 16.8 | 37.0 |
| Miami | 25.4 | 11.5 | 37.0 |
| Minnesota | 20.6 | 16.3 | 37.0 |
| Arizona | 25.6 | 10.1 | 35.7 |
| Carolina | 22.2 | 12.6 | 34.9 |
| NY Jets | 22.7 | 11.2 | 33.9 |
| Buffalo | 18.4 | 13.3 | 31.7 |
| Chicago | 22.1 | 9.6 | 31.7 |
| San Francisco | 19.8 | 11.8 | 31.7 |
| Washington | 18.9 | 12.8 | 31.7 |
| St. Louis | 20.0 | 11.2 | 31.2 |
| Oakland | 20.6 | 10.4 | 31.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 21.0 | 9.6 | 30.6 |
| Cleveland | 16.0 | 13.8 | 29.8 |
| Houston | 18.6 | 10.7 | 29.3 |
| Tennessee | 18.4 | 10.9 | 29.3 |
| Jacksonville | 19.7 | 8.5 | 28.2 |
Question 4
With Jordy Nelson out for the season, will TE Richard Rodgers' value likely be affected much?
DANIEL GOODLETT (Bonita, CA)
I kind of think so. He’s been around for a year now, so he has a better idea of what’s going on. I think he’s ready to do a lot more, and I think they’re going to give him that chance. I think he’s a lot better than Andrew Quarless. Over the last three years, Quarless has been about the worst tight end in the league around the goal line, catching only 5 of 16 passes inside the 10. That’s with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. So I like the idea of drafting Rodgers as a second tight end, with the optimism he might end up delivering top-10 numbers at the position.
Question 5
I'm wondering how players normally do coming back from ACL tears. I'm in a 10-team keeper league with no limit on # of players protected and you lose your top draft picks for every player kept. (i.e. keep 4 = lose first 4 picks.) The top 10-12 WRs are normally protected. Is it worth picking up Nelson or Benjamin with a late round pick?
Sarah Clark (Sherman Oaks, CA)
I would expect those guys will come back and be productive. But you’ve got to park them for a year, and roster spots are valuable. The cost of carrying a player like that, I think, is not having somebody like James Starks or Jerick McKinnon sitting on your bench. Running backs get hurt, and if Eddie Lacy or Adrian Peterson suffers an injury, Starks or McKinnon would become a top-10 type fill in. In weighing Nelson versus Benjamin, Benjamin is a lot younger. Nelson is 30, and his game is based more on speed. With Nelson, I would also be worried about the potential that Davante Adams would play really well this year, creating a crowded receiving corps.
Question 6
Our league has voted in the third round reversal rule. It is an 8 team league. I recall in the past, you posting the "bang for your buck" chart, for lack of a better term. It showed the advantage the 1st overall pick had over the rest of the teams on what seemed like a sliding scale, if you picked with the same info for everyone drafting, in your example. We get to select the position from where we draft from, and would be helpful in knowing if one spot is better than another with the 3RR. This is a PPR league with 6-point TD passes. If you can, can you please show what the 3RR would look like for an 8 team league?
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
I’ve got the No. 1 spot as the most valuable in both formats. (This surprises me, considering I’m not even sure who I would select with the first pick.) Note, however, that it’s closer with the 3RR. The first pick is still the most valuable, but it drops by 10 points.
| BEST DRAFT SLOT? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Slot | Snake | 3RR | Diff |
| Pick 1 | 364 | 354 | -10 |
| Pick 2 | 349 | 351 | +2 |
| Pick 3 | 347 | 349 | +2 |
| Pick 4 | 353 | 348 | -5 |
| Pick 5 | 338 | 343 | +5 |
| Pick 6 | 333 | 343 | +10 |
| Pick 7 | 343 | 341 | -2 |
| Pick 8 | 339 | 337 | -2 |
Question 7
Last year I found the starting line-ups for preseason games on the NFL.com website, not there this year. Where can I find the starting lineups for 3rd week preseason games? Keep up the great work.
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
I noticed the same thing. Last year, there were “Gamebooks” available for every preseason game. All 65. This time around, the same pdf documents are only available for about half of the games. Not a killer, but it’s a downgrade in information. In the past, it was easier to tell if a player sat out. He’d be listed in the “Did not play” section. The starting lineups, at least for me, aren’t as big, since I’m carefully watching the first quarter of all of those games anyway. I’m watching to see how teams are using skill position guys. The league also appears to have discontinued its “NFL Record & Fact Book”, which I miss. I’ve got all of those dating back to 1987. For the 2015 version, I have it only in pdf form. That’s not terrible, but I prefer having the on-paper version sitting near the computer for reference.
Question 8
I have been following your advice since 1994. Love the service. In a 12 team, snake draft, standard scoring league. 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 2 Flex, 1TE, 1K, 1 DST. I have the 10th pick and am trying to decide whether I keep Russell Wilson or not. I can keep him for a 5th round pick (58th overall). There is value in that pick but I may end up having to pick one of the top 2 QB’s in order to get value at #10 pick. Jeremy Hill (5th Rd) and OBJ (14th Rd) are keepers so they are off the board. I expect the top 8 backs (including Hill) and the top 2 WR’s to be off the board. I cannot see myself selecting Ingram in the first round. This league does not do any trades so moving up is out of the question.
RODNEY NESBIT (Redondo Beach, CA)
I don’t consider Wilson to be a great value in the fifth round. I’ve got him as the 43rd player on my board, which is only 15 spots ahead of where you would be getting him. If you don’t protect Wilson, you can probably get Wilson or a similar quarterback with that pick.
Question 9
joining a 12 team league where you start 2 qbs and 3 rbs and 3 wr and 1 te. i know that usually a 2 qb system puts qbs at the top of the board, but the 3 rb also makes them seem more important. td passes are worth 7, rushing tds 8, and recieving tds 6 and its ppr. my guess is qb round 1, rb round 2, wr round 3, rb round 4 and qb again in 5 if any are left otherwise another rb?
Tavis Medrano (San Gabriel, CA)
Odd that the league would beef up at QB, RB and WR but leave tight ends out of the mix. There are plenty of tight ends out there. Why not two starters at that position? As for setting this up in the custom scoring, click on “My Stuff” and then on “Scoring Profiles”. Once in there, click on “Create Scoring Profile”. You will create a “blank” scoring profile, which I believe is the first option that comes up. Fill out the boxes describing the scoring system (7 points for rushing TDs, and whatnot). There is a box for “Does your league use an auction?” Click on this box (even if your league doesn’t us an auction). In there, you’ll find about a dozen questions about rosters that will help in determining the overall value of the significant players (relative to guys at other positions). At each position, you are asked how many players will be drafted. If you’re in a 12-team league with 20 players each, then we’re looking for a total of 240 – 85 running backs, 85 wide receivers, 40 quarterbacks and 30 tight ends, for example, would equal 240 players total. Then, as a subset of those numbers, you are asked how many players you actually care about. I think the actual wording is, “How many of these players will go for more than $1.00 (in auction)?” You can see, of course, that if you were drafting 85 running backs, you would definitely not care much about running backs past 70. At that point, you’re down to guys who might not even be selected at all (given that everyone’s draft list is different). The starters (36 running backs) and the first backup (12 more) you care about; then you’re getting into the gray area. Not knowing the parameters of your league, I would start with 36 quarterbacks (24 worth more than $1), 75 running backs (45 worth more than $1), 75 wide receivers (48 worth more than $1) and 24 tight ends (13 worth more than $1).
Question 10
My league holds an Auction. I get to throw out the first name. Typically, in years past, the first player that gets thrown out does not get bid on. No one seems willing to spend money on that first player. I see an opportunity here to get a player I really want at a pretty decent price. Any thoughts/suggestions as to the position I should throw out with the first pick? My strategy going into this year is to have a more well rounded team rather than a team of 3-4 studs and the other guys all being $1.00. Thoughts?
Rick Cwik (Lemont, IL)
Typically early in auctions, I like to fill the kicker and defense positions. If 80 percent of those players are going for $1, it makes sense to get in early – could be the difference between getting the No. 5 kicker on your board and the No. 12 kicker if you wait until the end. If you’re looking for a high-priced field player, then maybe Brandin Cooks or Julio Jones.
Question 11
Dynasty league. We keep 2 players for the next two years, then three for two years. I can keep 2. I have AP, Jeremy Hill and Juio Jones. 1/2 point per reception for WRs and RBs. I have the second overall pick this year. The person ahead of me will keep a QB and a WR. So I figure he will take a RB, possibly Demarco Murray. I feel I am huge AP fan and think he will have a monster year. So I will keep him. I also love me some Julio. But I think J Hill is an up and coming RB. My thinking is to keep the two RBs and hope for Julio to make it to me with only one guy ahead of me. What is your thought? Thanks. Love your columns and I've been using your mag for so long I cant remember.
STEVEN TURNER (Tacoma, WA)
Sounds logical. But if you lose Julio Jones, don’t come crying to me about it. I’m already kicking myself for selecting Odell Beckham Jr. late in a first round (I had Jones higher on my board but figured he had a better chance of sneaking into the early second round).
Question 12
I have the 1st pick in a 12 team snake draft. Its a PPR league. Your custom rankings have Julio Jones or Antonio Brown as the #1 pick. But I am worried that I won't be able to get a tier 1 RB when the draft snakes back to me in the 2nd round. I do, however think, there will be many top tier-ish WRs left in the late 2nd/early 3rd. Am I wrong to not "go by the book" and take a RB instead of Julio? Thoughts?
John Carter (Dallas, TX)
I think the “by the book” strategy is to select a running back. If you were to poll a bunch of guys, I think 90-plus percent would select a running back first. That’s fine. But after analyzing the numbers, I think those wide receivers are better. Maybe you can trade down? If you had the #7 pick, you could probably still get Jones or Brown, and then get a better running back in the second round.
Question 13
I am coming up on the keeper deadline for my league (Sept 3rd) and I am torn between two players for my keeper slot in a full point PPR league with pretty standard scoring otherwise. I have the option to keep Jordan Matthews in the 9th round or Brandin Cooks in the 6th round. What are your thoughts? I see you have Brandin Cooks very high, but he'll cost me a pick 3 rounds earlier. Who has the most value in your eyes?
Kyle Wells (Arlington, WA)
Two really good deals. I will go with Cooks. I think he has a chance to be a top-5 receiver, especially with it being a PPR format. Matthews is tempting as well, but I think he’s more of a top-20 receiver.
Question 14
I don't have a question, but I wanted you to know I have been using your service for over 10 years and love it. I won BOTH my leagues last year and have had many winning seasons over the years. Hoping for another one this year! Have a great day and thanks for providing high quality fantasy advice on a daily basis.
Walker Fenci (Frisco, TX)
Thanks for the kind words. Let’s see if you can grab a couple more titles this year.