Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. How early to pull the trigger in a draft on injured or suspended players? How auctions have changed over the years. And what the rankings look like in a Team Quarterback league.
Question 1
What round do you recommend drafting injured/suspended players A. Foster, M. Bryant, T. Gurley and T. Brady since they will miss several games? What about replacement players D. Adams, A. Blue, T. Mason and M. Wheaton?
KEVIN ANGEL (Katy, TX)
For both groups, I like the first two the best. Arian Foster was going to be out for half the season, but that kind of talk has died down. Now it’s looking more likely that he could be out for only September. So he’s a guy, I think, who needs to be one of the first 20 running backs selected. Same deal with Martavis Bryant. He’ll miss the first four games, but what a playmaker. He’s getting downfield and making a lot of huge plays in the preseason. With Davante Adams, I see huge breakout potential, but you’re not going to sneak him into the late rounds. He’ll be a top-20 wide receiver on everyone’s board, and a lot of people will have him in their top 15. With Alfred Blue, I’m warming up to him. Go back and watch his first or second run against the Saints – an 8-yard power grinder right up the gut. I believe he’ll be OK.
Question 2
Can you talk about how to screw the guys in an auction who you know didn't do their homework, know you did YOUR homework, and save money to linger and outbid you late in the auction?
Theodore Gaskell (Jacksonville, FL)
I think the idea that you can hang back in an auction and pick up a bunch of deals is going out of date. That’s something that was done 5-15 years ago, but I don’t see it being successfully implemented nowadays. Other owners have grown immune to that strategy. As more owners have completed more auctions, they’re smarter with their money. In both my personal league and the Mock Auction League in the magazine, for example, the price of running backs has steadily declined over the years. In my league with my college friends, the top running backs in the past always went in the mid-40s -- $45, $48, whatever. Now the auction starts, names like Adrian Peterson and Eddie Lacy get tossed out, and everyone sits on their wallets. No player went for $30 in this year’s DFL Player Selection Meeting. In such an auction, if you go in with the strategy of not bidding on anyone for the first hour, you’ll miss out on most of the really good players, and the great bargains you were hoping for will never show up. A danger with this kind of strategy is to be left holding money at the end, which is the biggest sin of all. In my opinion, you need to go in with a player price list, and then be prepared to react to what the other owners are doing. If they’re spending early, then you hang back. If the pricing is sluggish at the start, you may need to buy some guys on the front end.
Question 3
Long-time subscriber, absolutely love your product. I had a question regarding team QB. The custom scoring profile doesn't allow a team QB feature, so I was wondering if you could help me out (standard scoring). If I add up the backups you have on the projections I come up with PHI QB being about 30 points clear of the no. 2 which is NE QB, thought those numbers were a little off, what am I missing?
Chris Durham (Yuma, AZ)
There are some fudge numbers in there. Sam Bradford, for example, will probably get hurt. But I don’t want him down around 27th out of fear he’ll get hurt. He should be very good when he’s in there, so I’ve added some extras behind the curtain to get him up in the rankings. So you can just add the guys up, as you tried to do. But I can supply those numbers. I did a little prep work on the stats, cutting out the fluff. For the vast majority of teams, these numbers come from the starter going 14 or 15 games, and the backup playing 1-2 games. I’ve ranked them using standard scoring.
| TEAM QUARTERBACK RANKINGS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Pass Y | TDP | Int | Run Y | TDR | Pts |
| 1. | Indianapolis | 4,650 | 36.1 | 15.2 | 265 | 2.7 | 419.8 |
| 2. | Green Bay | 4,412 | 34.8 | 9.0 | 241 | 1.3 | 391.7 |
| 3. | New Orleans | 4,780 | 33.1 | 15.5 | 42 | .5 | 378.5 |
| 4. | Atlanta | 4,575 | 31.0 | 13.9 | 64 | .4 | 361.6 |
| 5. | Pittsburgh | 4,540 | 29.5 | 11.5 | 63 | .4 | 353.6 |
| 6. | Denver | 4,410 | 32.2 | 12.9 | 10 | .2 | 351.7 |
| 7. | Carolina | 3,609 | 21.6 | 14.4 | 574 | 4.0 | 348.3 |
| 8. | Seattle | 3,534 | 24.7 | 12.4 | 522 | 3.4 | 348.1 |
| 9. | NY Giants | 4,402 | 29.8 | 15.5 | 34 | .3 | 344.3 |
| 10. | Philadelphia | 4,340 | 27.8 | 14.6 | 95 | 1.0 | 343.2 |
| 11. | Dallas | 4,229 | 30.7 | 12.7 | 38 | .2 | 339.6 |
| 12. | New England | 4,222 | 30.1 | 11.3 | 41 | .6 | 339.5 |
| 13. | Miami | 4,002 | 25.6 | 14.0 | 250 | 1.1 | 334.4 |
| 14. | Detroit | 4,262 | 25.5 | 15.0 | 91 | 1.6 | 334.1 |
| 15. | San Diego | 4,225 | 28.0 | 15.4 | 66 | .2 | 331.2 |
| 16. | Baltimore | 3,955 | 27.2 | 13.6 | 96 | 1.5 | 325.0 |
| 17. | Buffalo | 3,172 | 18.1 | 15.1 | 631 | 3.9 | 317.4 |
| 18. | Arizona | 4,181 | 25.2 | 14.3 | 34 | .2 | 314.4 |
| 19. | Jacksonville | 3,485 | 20.3 | 17.1 | 415 | 1.5 | 305.6 |
| 20. | NY Jets | 3,584 | 22.4 | 17.4 | 246 | 1.7 | 303.7 |
| 21. | Tennessee | 3,430 | 19.0 | 16.4 | 405 | 2.4 | 302.1 |
| 22. | Kansas City | 3,542 | 20.6 | 8.5 | 291 | 1.5 | 297.7 |
| 23. | Minnesota | 3,722 | 21.4 | 14.3 | 175 | 1.2 | 296.3 |
| 24. | Washington | 3,994 | 19.2 | 17.3 | 110 | .8 | 292.5 |
| 25. | Cincinnati | 3,558 | 21.1 | 16.9 | 143 | 2.5 | 292.0 |
| 26. | Chicago | 3,718 | 21.8 | 17.1 | 138 | .7 | 291.5 |
| 27. | San Francisco | 3,160 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 486 | 1.7 | 289.7 |
| 28. | Cleveland | 3,328 | 17.3 | 18.1 | 250 | 2.3 | 274.4 |
| 29. | Tampa Bay | 3,562 | 19.8 | 20.6 | 90 | 1.2 | 273.6 |
| 30. | Oakland | 3,556 | 20.5 | 15.1 | 54 | .4 | 267.9 |
| 31. | St. Louis | 3,483 | 19.8 | 16.6 | 102 | .7 | 267.6 |
| 32. | Houston | 3,318 | 18.7 | 14.5 | 31 | .3 | 245.6 |
Question 4
Really appreciate all the work you do each season. I value your opinions highly--you're the best in the business in my opinion. There are, however, a couple players I feel you might be a too down on, and just wanted to hear your rationale. I'm curious how you have Calvin Johnson valued so low. I understand that you feel that Golden Tate is another #1-type receiver who will absorb some of Megatron's targets. Even if that is the case, I still find it hard to believe that he will score 15.6 points per game in a PPR format as you have projected. Consider that he scored 17.5 PPG last season in the games that he played, also alongside Golden Tate, battling injury the whole year (and basically used as a decoy for several of those starts). In his last few healthy seasons he was historically great--with five 200 yard games in 3 years and an all-time receiving yard record if I recall correctly. He is one of the greatest WR talents ever. I don't understand how we can be downgrading him 2 full points per game further than his worst (and injury-marred) season in the last five. The other player is Jordan Matthews. I don't really have an air-tight argument for him, especially because he is more of an unknown, but all reports I've read are gushing about his talent. This is still an Eagles offense that will be fast-paced and high scoring, and he will be the leading target in a system that made Mark Sanchez fantasy relevant. Remember, you had concerns last year with Maclin not being talented enough to produce like a true WR1. I'm just concerned the same mistake is being made again this year. I feel like even with average talent (and Matthews might be above-average), players in these Chip Kelly offenses are simply going to produce.
john stolzmann (Las Vegas, NV)
I agree on Matthews. For much of the summer, I have been wrestling with whether he’ll even be the best receiver in that offense. Nelson Agholor has made a couple of athletic plays, and long-term he’ll be really good. But I see it now, and Matthews moved well up my board on the weekend. He’s going to catch a bunch of passes and touchdowns. As for Calvin, you’re running into the issue of whether he’s even the best receiver on his own team. Golden Tate was a good receiver last year, and now he looks even a lot better. Johnson is on the old side, and he’s had problems staying healthy. Plus they might run more now that they’ve reworked their offensive line and added Ameer Abdullah. And can Matthew Stafford start closing some drives with touchdowns? He’s thrown only 20 and 22 TDs in two of his last three seasons. No way do I put Johnson up with the likes of Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks this year. He’s in the second tier.
Question 5
In the custom scoring systems, there is an option for awarding points when a defense holds an opponent's score under a certain threshold, but there is no option for holding opponents under rushing or passing thresholds. Can that be considered as a future option for the custom scoring systems? Thanks.
Roy Sherman (Columbia, TN)
That would make sense. It’s one of those things on the to-do list that we need to get around to. But the programming for such a thing starts to get very complicated, considering so many leagues are run in so many different ways. And then we have to balance that against the reality that the vast majority of fantasy players don’t care much about defenses anyway. For now, all I can do is point you to the Excel file with the projected stats for each defense. There you will find how many passing yards, rushing yards and total points we expect each defense will allow.
Question 6
Dynasty league. I have the second pick. Gurley goes first. I have no running backs. Ridley, Richardson, Tate, Taliafarro, and J. Bell. Trent Richardson burn. I'm worried Gordon will be average. Would you take Cooper over Gordon? I have A. Brown, J. Jones, M. Evans, J. Gordon, Benjamin. Can't win with Foles and Stafford. Do I pick the best player Cooper or go with need. Basically how close do you think these two are?
Tom Pasquini (Redding, CA)
Ameer Abdullah is in the mix, I think. He looks like he’ll be a really good running back for the Lions. Quick as hell. Cooper is a money choice, but he’s kind of a logjam deal on your team, unless you can swing a trade. Unless you’re starting three wide receivers per week, Cooper won’t get on the field for you this year. In the second round, will Jameis Winston or Mariota be there? Would be nice to dump Foles and stick a quality youngster in that slot to develop for 2016. Then again, Tyrod Taylor is probably available, and he’d be a better No. 2 for this season.
Question 7
I’m asking a variation of a question I asked earlier in the offseason. Now that we’ve seen the Eagles play three preseason games, it looks like Chip Kelly will be mixing in both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews more than we first thought. As you pointed out in the weekly update, Mathews has more value than as a traditional handcuff. In my 10-team, standard scoring league, I think I’d like to have both Murray and Mathews and start both. What do you think of that strategy and under that scenario, what round would I take Mathews?
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
If you draft Murray, you have to have Mathews. Pretty much whatever it takes, you have to do it. Murray has had problems staying healthy, and Mathews looks like he’ll be just as good (maybe better) when he’s in there. Watching these last two preseason games, it occurs to me that Mathews might score 8 touchdowns even if he doesn’t start a game all year. I believe he should be selected before the first running back on a lot of teams.
Question 8
I have put Jordy on IR in my deep (14-team) dynasty league that already drafted. I slid John Brown into my projected starting lineup, and I have 3 insurance guys who play: Hartline, Wright, & Aiken. I am thinking of filling Jordy's roster spot with a guy who might break out or have some value over the first five weeks of the season. My options are Hankerson, Montgomery, or Janis. I'm leaning Hankerson because Roddy is getting there, but I wonder if Montgomery's big-play ability might warrant stashing him for late season or next year. Your thoughts?
Shaun Hawkins (Albany, GA)
I don’t think Montgomery or Janis has much value. I would much rather carry Leonard Hankerson. If Roddy White (or Julio Jones) were to break down, they’d plug Hankerson in and he’d be a viable player. With the two Packers guys, you can’t say that. That is, if Randall Cobb or Davante Adams misses games, those guys still might not put up decent numbers.
Question 9
In your Aug 31 update, you dropped Alshon Jeffery 9 spots to WR 18..what changed in one week to make you drop him so drastically? Don't point to his calf injury, because you have not dropped Julian Edelman one spot and he hasn't seen the field all summer with an ankle, and by all accounts, will miss opening day and perhaps more time.
Rob Dammers (Ringwood, NJ)
The Bears, I think, are going to be terrible. Definitely a last-place team. As for Jeffery, I have no concerns about him being ready for their first game. He fell when I shifted him down from 29 to 28 percent of their receiving production. (I think it’s 28 percent for both yards and for touchdowns). I did this because I shifted it over to Martellus Bennett. I had kind of written off Bennett early in the offseason, when he was staying away and looking for a new contract. Now I am of the school of thought that Bennett is fully committed and will be a big part of that passing offense. So I shifted the numbers around some. This was not a deal where I looked at Jeffery and said, “He’s 9 spots too high; I need to move him down.” This occurred when I was working on the Chicago group and shuffled some numbers around, not knowing exactly what effect it would have on the rankings in all the various scoring formats. I may have overcorrected some. I’ll be re-examining all of those numbers tomorrow as part of the weekly audit (and skimming down the lists carefully). Maybe I’ll tweak that up to 28.5 percent and move Jeffery up a few spots. Big picture, he’s definitely not in the top tier of receivers with Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. I don’t think he’s in the second tier, either. I think he’s in the third tier – one of those guys who looks like a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 20 at his position.
Question 10
What's a better value in a 12 team ppr keeper league? LeVeon Bell with the tenth pick of the 2nd round or Justin Forsett with the third pick in the 5th? Thanks.
Jeff Rose (Weston, FL)
Forsett is an undersized running back who will be 30 in October. His career could head south at any time. Bell, on the other hand, is probably the first running back you would select in a dynasty format – a 23-year-old who went over 2,000 yards last year. So if you’re looking long-term, Bell is way better than Forsett. That said, this seems to be one of those leagues where there’s a cost to keeping a player each year. And when you factor in Bell’s two-game suspension, and the likelihood that you probably won’t be keeping either of these guys in 2016, it gets a lot closer. In a start-from-scratch draft, Bell would go in the middle of the first round – 3rd, 4th, 6th. So you’re getting him a little over a round early by keeping him. You are turning your first- and second-round picks into two first-round picks, which is nice. With Forsett, he should catch a ton of passes in that offense (with Marc Trestman as the offensive coordinator). So to me, he looks like a guy who should go in the middle of the second round in a PPR format. So you’re getting a solid second-round pick in exchange for an early fifth-rounder. So you can make a solid case for him as well. If you want to go big-picture, than my sense is the correct play is to protect Bell. He should be really solid once he gets back, you should be able to secure DeAngelo Williams cheaply as a fill-in, and if he’s as good as you’re hoping he’ll be, maybe you even keep him again next year as perhaps the No. 1 overall player in your league. Looking purely at the numbers for 2015, Forsett is 39 points better (according to my projections) than the player I think should be selected at 5.03. Bell is 38 points better than the player who should be chosen at 2.10.
Question 11
I am in a keeper league that allows you to keep two players, but you lose the draft pick from the round where you picked that player the previous year. I am picking 7th in a ten team league, and the top ten running backs are pretty much going to be gone by the time I am ready to pick. I have Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Matt Forte to choose two from, and lose my first two draft picks. We are in a half PPR league with pretty much traditional scoring. Would you keep Jones and Brown, to have two of the top 5 WR's with where I am picking, or would you keep one of those two and Forte. If the latter, which WR would you keep?
JAMES DIERSING (Okeana, OH)
I’d keep the two franchise receivers. Those guys are going to be really good. If you keep Forte, not only do you lose one of those stars, but you could be taking on a running back who could turn sour in a hurry. Bears will be a bad team, and they’re running a completely different offense this year.
Question 12
If your rankings are correct, my first money-league team will kick some serious butt. I started out my team with your #1 RB (Lacy) and #5 and #6 WRs (Cobb, Cooks). I also have your #7 QB (Eli) and your #10 QB in per-game points (Brady), your #20 and #24 RBs (Martin, Stewart), your #6 TE (Allen) and your #6 TE in per-game points (Gates), and your #6 D (Chiefs). And we haven't even mentioned a bench that includes your #24 WR (DeSean Jackson). How confident are you in your rankings? And do you like this team in standard scoring?
Richard Weber (Fort Myers, FL)
Looks like you’re off to a great start. Teams have to be managed along the way. In your case, you will in particular need to keep an eye on that second running back spot. If things head south for Doug Martin or Jonathan Stewart at some point, you will need to find another running back to plug in there. But that’s fantasy football. No doubt there will be some notable players that emerge in September, October and November. Happens every year.
Question 13
OK I've relied on your magazine for years and it has proven quite successful. My team name is on the trophy more that any others - so THANK YOU!!! Ok, my draft pick is #4 (from a blind draw). If for some reason Eddy Lacy is there I, of course, take him, but more likely I'm looking at Peterson or Lynch, maybe Charles in our league. But, I love C.J. Anderson vs the other three. Your write up on Anderson - not that positive! How foolish would this pick be at #4. Then coming back up I like Justin Forsett. Any thoughts?
PAUL HOUSE (Lafayette, IN)
Lynch, Anderson, Forsett. You didn’t go to Cal, did you? I’m a little nervous with Anderson myself, just out of respect for how well Ronnie Hillman is playing. When one guy is averaging over 7 yards per carry, the logical progression is to give him more work. With that dynamic in mind, I don’t think Anderson is in the mix for that No. 4 spot.
Question 14
Im in a standard 12 team league. I drafted Andy Dalton as my backup. Is Tyrod Taylor a better backup and worth a waiver claim? And what is your take on Pittsburgh’s new kicker? Is he worth more than Miami's kicker?
huy le (oxnard , CA)
I would take Taylor over Dalton. I like the running ability. With the way fantasy football is biased in favor of running quarterbacks, I think Taylor could be really good. As for Josh Scobee, I think he’ll probably wind up somewhere between 12th and 15th on my board.
Question 15
I entered the index open this year and was wondering when all the experts picks be available to view. Thanks
Paul Staas ()
I posted the composite results for each position. But I’m not posting all of the individual entries for people to examine online. Sorry.
Question 16
PPR. I am picking 5th and looking at Lacy, Charles, Jones, Rodgers or Luck. Any thoughts? QBs get 6 per td and 1 or for every 20 yards passing. Thanks mike
Mike Conway (Nanuet, NY)
I haven’t competed in a 16-team league, so I’m not aware of any extra wrinkles that would create. It seems like there’s still good depth at quarterback. Thinking out loud, but I would want to be sure to get a second quarterback in the top 25 as well. As for the overall board, I would think it would be pretty similar to what you would use in a more traditional 12-team league.
Question 17
Hi, Ian. I’m in a PPR league where IDPs score nearly as much as players on offense. (At the end of a season, J.J. Watt and a few LBs are mixed in with QBs and top RBs as our highest scorers.) Each team fields 18 players… 1 each of QB, RB, WR, TE, K, LB, DL, S, CB, with 2 RB/WR flex, 3 D flex, and 4 bench spots. My early draft choices are generally RB-LB-WR-LB or RB-WR-LB-LB, as I try to balance scarcity with the potential for big points from top defenders. The league usually has 14 teams but we’re down to 12 this year, so I’m wondering to what extent I alter my draft strategy. How much does removing 2 teams from the mix affect the abundance/scarcity of quality players at various positions, and therefore when I should target them?
Doug Alger (Allen, TX)
With players, I don’t care how many points they score. I want to know how many MORE points they will score than the guys you can select late in the draft. That is, if J.J. Watt is worth 500 points, how many points can I expect out of my defensive lineman if I don’t select one until the 15th round? (And of those scorers last year, how many weren’t even drafted at all?). If there are a bunch of 400-point defensive linemen sitting there on the waiver wire, Watt’s value isn’t really 500 points. It’s 100 points. Relative value, that’s the key. And as you move from 14 teams to 12 teams, those relative values shift a little. It means there are a few more viable players at each position who are available on the waiver wire. If there were 400-point players sitting there before, now there are a few guys who are even better than those guys. So maybe that baseline shifts up to 405 points. As far an individual defensive players themselves, the guy who most caught my eye on the weekend was NaVorro Bowman. He missed all of last year, after that nasty goal-line injury in the NFC Championship game at Seattle. But he seems to be very much back now. He had close to 150 tackles in each of his last three seasons, and it looks he’s back to being that kind of a guy. He’s got 12 tackles and 2 sacks in the preseason while not playing that much. He’s in the mix, I think, to potentially lead the league in tackles.
Question 18
I need help! Got a trade offer and I'm undecided. Here's the situation: PPR, 12 teams, 2 RB, 2 WR, and one flex start. I have Bradford and Stafford, Lev Bell, Latavius Murray, Ivory, Randle, Blue and Knile Davis at RB. I also have Jordan Matthews, Maclin, Edelman and Wheaton at WR. I'm being offered R Cobb and DeAngelo Williams for Matthews and L. Murray. Cobb would be great, but I love Matthews-Bradford combo. I'm deep enough at RB that I could probably do this without hurting my RB situation much. Thoughts? Need help now!!! Jerry E. Denver, Co
JERRY ENGER (Glenmoore, PA)
I don't think you're deep enough to do the trade. I think you'll need Murray in your backfield. And Jordan Matthews is a really nice receiver anyway.
Question 19
PPR draft question. 14 round draft and we can start 1-3 RB's or 1-3 WR's. I tend to definitely take WR's with the first two picks and am not afraid to even take WR's with the first three picks. And like you I'm looking for guys that are going to catch 100+ passes. Last year it was Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown and the grabbed Edelman with my third pick. And won the league. If things fall out that way again what group of RB's would you be targeting in this scoring format?
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
If you can find running backs who catch passes, those guys are really good in that kind of format. Would be nice to mix a running back into the first three rounds somewhere if you can.