Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is Rishard Matthews a diamond in the rough (or fool's gold)? Are overseas games lower scoring? Adjusting Pittsburgh's offense with no Big Ben. And when do we pull the plug on comatose Roddy White?
Question 1
I'll admit I haven't been following him that close, but Rishard Matthews is clearly one of the hot waiver adds this week and this week's redrafter even mentioned him as one who's moved up, yet he's still only ranked #68? That's well below even Jordan Cameron. Also, do you still feel Tevin Coleman (#21) is the better RB in Atlanta over Freeman (#26) and his big Week 3 performance? Finally, (I don't have any of those guys but those were just observations). I'm weak at TE with Jared Cook as my only option in our 12 team standard TD/yardage league. I'm 0-3 despite having Lacy, Ingram, L. Murray, B. Cooks, and Tate/Williams as my primary starters with Eli, Tyrod or Tannehill at QB. Is it worth trading Matt Jones for Jordan Reed or Eifert? (the guy who has Reed also has Morris). My concern is that Jones' stock is going to continue to rise to where he may be worth more than a mid-tier TE on the trade market.
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
I think I’ve gotten a half-dozen emails from guys asking about Rishard Matthews, so it’s apparent I have him lower than a lot of others. I’m fine with that. I noticed in the preseason that he was playing well, and now he’s played well in all three games. He scored in Week 1, and he’s gone over 100 yards in his last two games. But they’ve got a lot of guys. Jarvis Landry is definitely the No. 1 receiver there. Jordan Cameron sometimes looks very good as a pass-catching tight end. Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills I have slotted below Matthews, but they’re playing just as much. And now the Dolphins are going to be working in DeVante Parker. Parker, recall, is the first-rounder who missed most of the offseason. But Parker is a big, talented guy, and he needs to play more. With all of these guys, keep in mind that Miami might have a new head coach and a tweaked offense a week from now. If they don’t play well in London against the Jets, this could be the week that they fire Joe Philbin. So Matthews isn’t a guy that I’m excited about holding in fantasy leagues right now. As for Coleman/Freeman, I think they’ll be sharing time once they’re both healthy. Coleman is the faster and more dynamic runner, I think, while Freeman is better in the passing game. Matt Jones could be a hell of a back, so if you decide to move him, you should be getting a really good tight end in return.
Question 2
You’re the master of analyzing the data and finding the angles, so I'm wondering if you have any data on London games yet, or if the sample size is still too small? Any trends that would affect fantasy games that you've noticed? I ask because I have Ivory scheduled to play this week, but also just because I'm curious.
L.B. Graham (Maryland Heights, MO)
I wouldn’t shy away from anyone because of the overseas factor. The game over there was a clunker, with the Giants beating the Dolphins 13-10, but since then the scores have been healthy enough.
| GAMES IN ENGLAND | |
|---|---|
| 2007 | NY Giants 13, Miami 10 |
| 2008 | New Orleans 37, San Diego 32 |
| 2009 | New England 35, Tampa Bay 7 |
| 2010 | San Francisco 24, Denver 16 |
| 2011 | Chicago 24, Tampa Bay 18 |
| 2012 | New England 45, St. Louis 7 |
| 2013 | Minnesota 34, Pittsburgh 27 |
| 2013 | San Francisco 42, Jacksonville 10 |
| 2014 | Dallas 31, Jacksonville 17 |
| 2014 | Detroit 22, Atlanta 21 |
| 2014 | Miami 38, Oakland 14 |
Question 3
Can you clear up some confusion regarding the Fantasy Index Redrafter. With Romo hurt and Weeden filling in, one would assume that you could add up both of their estimated points to come up with the total of the Dallas Cowboys QB for the rest of the year. However, when you add the two point values, you get a number that far exceeds the #1 QB. So, it is easy to assume that I am missing something. Could you please explain?
JIM MCCANN (Carmel, IN)
The same issue exists with Ben Roethlisberger. When a quarterback is going to miss six games, it definitely reduces their value. However, if we grade them simply by their expected overall production for the remainder of the year, Romo and Roethlisberger would come in behind guys like Jameis Winston, Ryan Mallett, Alex and Teddy Bridgewater. But that’s clearly not right. In the vast majority of fantasy leagues, you would prefer to have Romo as your No. 2 quarterback, figuring you might have a top-10 guy for the second half of the season. Winston and Mallett might be more productive overall, but you know they’re not going to be top-20 quarterbacks. So when I’m auditing the rankings, I tuck in a few extra stats for injured/suspended players, to move them up to where I believe they should be ranked. For guys who are 100 percent healthy, their rankings are driven strictly by how I feel they’ll perform.
Question 4
Where's the weekly podcast been? I subscribed during the preseason and loved it. I didn't get a week 3 or 4 episode yet.
Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)
We missed last week. Sorry. But we’ll get one put together later today.
Question 5
Is it time to drop Roddy White? Zero points for two games in a row now. His only catch that I saw in the game this last week was called back on a penalty. Matt Ryan did give him an end zone look, but it as a poor throw to an open White...
Steven John (Milwaukee, WI)
It seems like it, doesn’t it? I’m in a league where you can start four wide receivers, so I have started White and taken zeros two weeks in a row. That hurts. We’ve got this big boat and everybody’s rowing and doing their part. Except for White. He’s sitting there, holding his paddle. I haven’t cut him yet, but I am getting near the end of my rope. In both of those leagues, I looked at the available free agents and considered plugging in another option. In one league, I was able to get Marvin Jones, and he’ll start in that spot. Easy call. In the other, the fill-in possibility is Cole Beasley (PPR) and I’m not sure which way I’ll go. Remember back to the first game? White caught 4 passes for 84 yards against the Eagles, and he was slightly underthrown on what would have been a touchdown (that was the play, recall, where the guy leapt up and made the nice interception). Atlanta is at home this week in a favorable situation, so White maybe (might) turn things around. In each of the last two games, he’s been on the field in his usual role. He’s healthy. It’s not as if he’s been benched or is standing on the sidelines hurt. They just haven’t been using him.
Question 6
I have Big Ben in my league who is potentially out for 6 weeks. Therefore, he most likely will be back for the last 3 games of our regular season and the playoffs. Would you trade him for C. Palmer with a team stacked at QBs, or should I just weather the storm with Flacco until Big Ben returns?
ANDREW DAMIANI (WESTFIELD, IN)
In Weeks 12-16, four of Roethlisberger’s five games are at Seattle, at Cincinnati, Denver and at Baltimore. I will take Palmer.
Question 7
What is the deal with Andrew Luck? He is killing me.
GEORGE HORSTMANN (Folsom, LA)
Their offensive line isn’t good enough, and Luck tends to hold the ball too long, trying to make things happen. That can be an ugly combination. He’s getting hit too often, and he’s not going to stay healthy for long if he keeps playing that way. He’s been out of practice this week, and it’s looking more likely that he’ll probably sit out on Sunday. But I expect they’ll right the ship. They’ve got too many good players, and the schedule gets a lot easier. So far they’ve played the Bills and Jets, who both have great defenses. Of their remaining 13 games, nine are against teams from the AFC South and NFC South, and lots of soft defenses in those division. I expect he’ll be a top-5 quarterback.
Question 8
We do supplemental drafts after weeks 4, 8 and 12 in lieu of waivers. In our dynasty league, there are three undrafted RBs who have emerged as prospects. They will undoubtedly get snapped up at our first supplemental: Thomas Rawls (Sea); David Williams (Az); and Karlos Williams (Buff). How would you rank them from a dynasty perspective?
ROBERT JOHNSON (Pearland, TX)
Right now, I’d go Williams-Rawls-Johnson, but I don’t see a ton of difference between the three. They’re all pretty good. Rawls might be in the best position. He’s on a good team, and Marshawn Lynch is getting up there in years. Williams is big and fast, and he keeps scoring touchdowns.
Question 9
Some years you’re the bug, some years you’re the windshield. No matter how hard we prepare, we all have those years where everything goes right, and then we have those years where we are the bug. This year I am the bug. If you had told me on draft night that on Week 3 I’d be sitting with a roster of Roethlisberger, Jeremy Hill, Matt Forte, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Martavis Bryant and Davante Adams (16-team league mind you) I’d have been super psyched. Instead, in Hill, Cooks, Matthews and Adams I have arguably four of the top uber-hyped under-performers of the season. What are the odds that so many of this years busts are all on my roster? To top it all off, I traded away Larry Fitzergald before week 1 to net me Matthews (a move everyone would agree made sense at the time). So Ian, this isn’t so much a question as a statement. Yes, it sucks that I have four terribly underperforming guys. Yes, it sucks that now Big Ben is on the shelf for 4-6 weeks. Yes, it sucks that trades that looked so good on paper at the time have failed miserably. But, I owe it to my league mates to keep playing and keep trying. If I fold up shop, it ruins the integrity of the league. I can’t give easy lay-ups to my upcoming opponents when we face off head-to-head. I’ve been on top plenty of years, so yeah, this year I’ll take my lumps, I’ll be the bug. But I’ll keep scouring waivers, looking to trade, and if I go down, I'll go down swinging.
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
I’m not giving up on that team. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Cooks and Matthews are both top-15 receivers this year (and I’m not saying they can’t be in the top 10). Those are go-to guys. Hill should turn things around. He’s a better fit than Giovani Bernard for that Hue Jackson power-running system. You will be able to cobble together quarterbacking while Roethlisberger is out; that’s the way that position works. Adams is hurt and Forte plays for the worst team in the league. No getting around those realities. But you definitely keep slugging away.
Question 10
With Big Ben out and Michael Vick in, do we trust Antonio Brown? I have Fitz, Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks along with Brown. Week 4 I have penciled in Cooks and Fitz!
PAUL GRIMMER (SHELTON, CT)
I would have started Brown over all of those guys. I just think he’s a special talent. But now that we saw him working with Vick last night, you can see the difference in the quarterbacks. A couple of throws here and there, and Brown finished with only 4 catches in the four regulation quarters, the first time that has happened to him since the 2012 season. Pittsburgh’s hopes ended when Brown was wide open and Vick missed him on the fourth down. Had Big Ben been under center, Brown would have caught about 10 passes in that game. Best I can offer is that on a night where so much went wrong, Brown still almost had a very good night. In the middle of the second quarter, recall, Brown could have caught a 36-yard touchdown. Not sure if we call that a drop, since he was diving and sliding out the side of the end zone. But that’s a ball Brown usually catches. I would tend to continue starting Brown over those other guys in the coming weeks.
Question 11
I just noticed that this weeks Eagles Skins game may be changed to a different week due too weather. I'm not sure what the best way to deal with this is. Any ideas? Thanks. Darrell.
DARRELL PRESTELLA (Carson City, NV)
They’re definitely going to play it. That’s certain. I saw a blurb where there’s a need to move the game, Detroit would be a possibility, but I’m not sure how likely that is. If the winds are ripping, that might force teams to rely more on the run, but that’s what these teams want to do anyway, with Matt Jones, Alfred Morris, DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews.
Question 12
Do you believe Ahmad Bradshaw will be signed by the Colts?
James Costello (Biddeford, ME)
He’s probably a contingency plan for them. If either Frank Gore or Josh Robinson gets a serious injury, Bradshaw is a guy they would then probably call.
Question 13
Great call on Devonta Freeman Week 3! Wanted to get your thoughts on some TEs. I have Heath Miller, but am looking to dump him real soon with Big Ben hurt and the return of M. Bryant. 2 available TEs are J. Reed and Julius Thomas. What are your thoughts on Reed going forward and Thomas if, and when, he returns.
Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)
Kirk Cousins definitely looks for Jordan Reed. Reed has caught 19 passes and a touchdown in the first three games. He could have caught 2 more touchdowns in the Giants game, but the balls were underthrown (in part because Cousins got hit on both of those throws). In the three games Reed started last year that Washington didn’t start RG3 at quarterback, he caught 20 passes. Julius Thomas is out until at least Week 5 (but I expect he’ll return for that game).
Question 14
I have been offered a trade T.Gurley for D.Adams.. Should I take the trade or stand pat?
BRAULIO SANCHEZ (Norwalk, CT)
Answer depends in part on whether you need running backs or wide receivers. Both guys have speculative value. That is, you can’t count on either of them right now. You wouldn’t want to start either in Week 4. (Adams isn’t even playing.) But both potentially could develop into top-20 players at their position for a good chunk of the remainder of the season. Adams is in the great offense. Trouble is, they’ve also go Randall Cobb and James Jones. I would lean towards Gurley, I think, getting things rolling in November-December. Rams have a bottom-10 running game right now, but things change. The offensive may jell or Gurley might get more confident in the offense or whatever. Two years ago, recall, the Rams couldn’t run the ball a lick early in the year, then Zac Stacy emerged and put up top-10 numbers in the second half of the year. The Ravens had a bottom-5 running game after three weeks, but they put things together last night, with Forsett going for 150. Gurley could be one of those guys.
Question 15
I have to admit, not a fan right now. Yes, the successes of the last 15 years mean nothing right now. My first round pick was C.J. Anderson. My second round pick was DeMarco Murray. Can you talk me off the ledge?
Jane Gayamat (Bellingham, WA)
You’re in a tight spot. No doubt about it. Your roster serves as a case study for the danger of selecting running backs in the first two rounds. That’s the hardest position to fill, so we tend to want to force picks on that position. Many of us would have much better teams if we instead selected wide receivers in the first two rounds, knowing that other running backs would shake free in the middle and later rounds. We all kind of agreed that Antonio Brown and Julio Jones were the best wide receiver candidates, yet many of us passed on those guys to force picks on running backs. Now the mess needs to be cleaned up. In this case, I suppose the best course of action is to hope Gary Kubiak and Chip Kelly can put things together. Both of those teams are trying to get those running games fixed, and don’t underestimate the chances of things getting turned around. The Ravens running game was a pile of garbage at this time 24 hours ago. Now they’ve got things flipped around a little, with Justin Forsett running for 150 at Pittsburgh. You have to relax and hope the same kind of flip-around can occur with Anderson and Murray.
Question 16
Thanks for another great job this year. I have Jeremy Hill in a league that offers .5 per catch and more points for long distance TDs. I see that you have Dion Lewis higher than him in the re-drafter. Would you pick him up for Hill? I also have Ellington, Ivory and Ingram in that league. Is it time to bail on Hill?
KEN LASKER (Jamestown, NY)
All of those guys are worthy of being on rosters. Hill jumps out as a player who’s way too good to place on waivers. Ivory and Ellington have had injury issues. Can you trust Ellington to stay healthy? Working against Ivory and Hill is the reality that they don’t catch many passes, which works against them in that format. With Hill, we must keep in mind that the Bengals likely will get that running game cranked up, and he should be their main guy. He fits that scheme a lot better than Gio Bernard does. So while Hill’s value is low right now, it should get higher. Maybe you can trade him? But if I were walking into a PPR draft today, I would select each of those backs ahead of Hill.
Question 17
Yardage league (not PPR), my backs are M. Ingram, K. Williams, Ellington, D. Johnson, and Hillman. I have Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton. What would you think of trading Ingram and Dalton for Jeremy Hill?
Theodore Gaskell (Jacksonville, FL)
How confident are you that Hill is an upgrade? Maybe he gets back on track. But Ingram is definitely a lot better in the passing game. I have Ingram higher on my board right now than Hill.
Question 18
I received a trade offer in a PPR league: I give Tannehill and get Moncrief. My other QBs are Palmer and Taylor, and my WRs are A.J. Green, Cooks, Adams & Coleman ... should I make this move?
TOM KAUFFMAN (Bexley, OH)
Definitely. I am ready to pull the plug on Tannehill. With you having both Palmer and Taylor, he’s never going to start for you. So I would jump at the chance to swap him out for the clear No. 2 receiver in Indianapolis. Moncrief might end up being your 2nd-best wide receiver.
Question 19
In baseball it is common for teams who have no chance at the playoffs to unload unwanted/contract players. In football it is rare to ever make an in-season trade. Teams just wait for a release rather than trade a coveted future draft pick. Chicago is making two and talking about making more. I have been doing fantasy football (like you) for 30+ yrs. I cannot remember ANY team openly discussing dismantling a team midseason? If fact, can you remember when the last time a NFL made even TWO trades in a season?
Jim Backstrom (Henderson, NV)
I don’t understand it. The Bears are saying that Jared Allen and Jon Bostic don’t fit their system. Allen has always been a 4-3, and they were trying to play him as a rush linebacker in a 3-4. But why, then, did they pay him an $11 million bonus in the spring? As part of the deal with Carolina, Chicago is still on the hook for all that money. The Panthers get him for only $800,000. And Bostic was a second-round pick two years ago. You hate to see him go. Horrible team management (and like you, I can’t remember seeing anything like it).
Question 20
In week 4 I am confronted with my biggest WR decision so far this season. Which 3 should I play between E Sanders, T Williams, S Smith Sr., and G Tate? 1-3 and looking to get to .500!
CRAIG APANA (Ewa Beach, HI)
I would have started Steve Smith Sr. for sure. He’s 36, but he’s the go-to guy there, and he’s gone over 150 yards two weeks in a row. I figured he would have ripped up that secondary. Sanders definitely starts, and I would be left mulling between Golden Tate and Terrance Williams. With Tate, you have the payback angle. He’s facing his old team for the first time. I just wish his old team was the Buccaneers or the Bears, rather than the Seahawks. With Williams, he’s more of a big-play guy than go-to option. He didn’t even catch a pass last week. But he’s working against maybe the weakest secondary in the league. I’d probably go with Williams.
Question 21
I have both QBs – Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. I am thinking of trading to boost my weak rb/wr core. Which one would you keep and would you think I could get an even swap trade with a top tier rb or wr (Peterson, Bell, J.Jones)?
Russ Neis (Eagan, MN)
If you were re-drafting today, where would those guys be picked? Quarterbacks tend to be undervalued in most formats, so I would think that Peterson, Bell and Jones would be selected before Brady and Rodgers. So a one-for-one deal might be tough. You might have more luck with a package-type deal. But you might have the top 2 quarterbacks in the league, so I would guess that you’ll be able to get something done at some point.
Question 22
I am currently leading in my 10 man redraft league. Start 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR's, TE, K, D,D,D,D, DB,DB, DL, DL. Points Per Completion, PPR, 6 point all TD's, IDP scoring (standard). I want to keep ahead of the crowd so I have some Waiver Options I'd like to get your take on. Question is would you take "waiver player" over "current player"? Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick over Russell Wilson? Matt Ryan is starter. Marvin Jones, Allen Hurns, Leonard Hankerson over John Brown? Starters are Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Donte Moncrief, with Jeremy Maclin, Michael Crabtree and holding Dez Bryant on bench. Lance Dunbar, Karlos Williams, Theo Riddick over Todd Gurley? Starters are Jamaal Charles, Frank Gore, with Danny Woodhead on bench. Charles Clay over Jordan Cameron? Jimmy Graham is starter. Jordan Hicks, Justin Durant, Malcolm Smith, Hau'oli Kikaha over Danny Trevathan? I have Preston Brown, Kwon Alexander, Ryan Shazier, and Khalil Mack as well. I just found I can move Mack to DL too so Suh is an optional drop as well. Thanks for any input.
Nathan Kline (Topton, PA)
I don’t care who I drafted. I just want the best available players. Here and now. I have no loyalty to decisions that were made 3-4 weeks ago. We know more about everything now. If a guy can help my team, I’m interested. I think Karlos Williams will be a top-5 running back this week, so I’d love to squeeze him onto any roster I can.
Question 23
Picks 1-24-25: Lacy/Forsett/Cooks. I’m 0-3. Any ideas on how to fix?
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
I’ve got Lacy and Cooks in a few leagues. I think you wait on those guys. Cooks is definitely a talent and definitely the No. 1 wide receiver in New Orleans. We’ve seen the YAC talent. Two weeks in a row he’s been underthrown on touchdowns. He should be OK. Same with Lacy. (Although is it just me or does he look a little heavy?). Forsett started getting things turned around last night.
Question 24
If I have Lacy do I trade Danny Woodhead for Starks in a ppr or is Woodhead the more valuable guy to have and plug in?
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
I would think so (assuming you have some other running backs). I would like to have the insurance policy behind Lacy.