KANSAS CITY (vs. Chicago):
Kansas City has lost three in a row, but let’s not panic just yet. All of those teams are 4-0, and two of those games were on the road. There’s still time to right the ship, and the process could begin on Sunday with a home game against the lesser Bears. Kansas City should score in the mid-to-high 20s in this game, winning comfortably. ... Alex Smith is a frustrating quarterback. He won’t take any chances -- won’t throw deep, and won’t try to fit any balls into tight windows. But here’s a week where he’s got a decent chance of finishing with above-average numbers. The Bears are really struggling defensively right now. Opposing passers are completing 68 percent against them, with 10 TDs versus only 2 interceptions. So Smith has a decent chance of throwing a couple of touchdowns, and he’s been putting up a healthy number of yards, including 290 and 386 in his last two games. We don’t think he’ll come anywhere close to those kind of totals this week, however, because of the nature of the game. In both of those high-volume games, Kansas City fell way behind, forcing Smith to pass a lot more than usual. This week, the team is far more likely to ...
This report is taken from today's Week 5 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... win by about 10 points, so Smith will have the luxury of sliding back into more of a game manager role. That’s how it usually plays out for him in these kind of games. Since he showed up in Kansas City, the team has won 13 games by at least 10 points, and Smith has finished with under 230 passing yards in over half of those games. In none of those games, oddly, did he throw 1 TD pass -- eight games with multiple touchdowns, and five with none.
| Smith, winning by 10 points | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opponent | Yards | TD | Int |
| 2013 | at Jac. | 173 | 2 | 0 |
| 2013 | at Phil. | 273 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | NYG | 288 | 3 | 2 |
| 2013 | at Ten. | 245 | 0 | 1 |
| 2013 | Oak. | 128 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | at Buff. | 124 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | at Wash. | 137 | 2 | 1 |
| 2013 | at Oak. | 287 | 5 | 0 |
| 2014 | at Mia. | 186 | 3 | 0 |
| 2014 | N.E. | 248 | 3 | 0 |
| 2014 | St.L. | 223 | 0 | 0 |
| 2014 | NYJ | 199 | 2 | 0 |
| 2014 | Oak. | 297 | 2 | 0 |
You get the idea. While Smith has a decent chance to throw 2 TDs, he’s probably going to finish south of 230 yards in this game. Notice that while the Bears don’t have a great pass defense, only one quarterback all year has reached 200 passing yards against them. ... This looks like a really good situation for Jamaal Charles. He’s healthy and on top of his game (averaging 5.2 yards per attempt), and he’ll be running against a lesser defense. Thomas Rawls ran for 104 yards against this group a week ago. Charles is averaging 77 rushing yards this year, and he’s also averaging 38 yards as a pass catcher. Since Andy Reid showed up Charles has run for 25 TDs in 34 games, and he’s also caught 13 touchdowns. ... Jeremy Maclin has gone over 140 yards in back-to-back games. He’s the receiver they’re trying to feature, and he’s working against a defense that’s given up a touchdown to the No. 1 option in every passing game it’s faced. So he’s a reasonable enough option. But when Maclin caught 19 passes for 289 yards in his last two games, that was with Kansas City falling miles behind and throwing a lot more than they would like to. That won’t be the case this week. When Kansas City won easily down in Houston in Week 1, Maclin caught 5 passes for 52 yards, and this could be more like that game. ... Travis Kelce is the other big piece in this passing game, currently on pace to finish the season with 84 catches for 1,172 yards and 8 TDs. He’s might be the best non-Gronkowski tight end in the game. He’s playing against a defense that doesn’t seem to be very good against tight ends. The Bears have played only one upper-level tight end so far (Jimmy Graham), and he caught 7 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. Kelce looks very good. ... Cairo Santos knocked in 21 points at Cincinnati, but let’s not get too excited about his value. He was an average kicker last year, with 113 points, and he was a below-average scorer in the first three weeks of this season, with 17 points. It is unlikely that something magical happened with the team or play-calling in the last week that he’s now moved to the top of profession. More likely, this is just an outlier week. In the last 25 years, four other kickers have kicked 7 field goals in a game, and of that group, only one scored double-digit points in any of his next three games. But it’s a favorable situation for Kansas City (at home against a team it will beat), so we’ll stick Santos up in the top 5 at his position for this week. (He’ll be back down next week, when they’re playing at Minnesota.)
| Kickers with 7-plus field goals - points scored in following three games | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G1 | G2 | G3 |
| 1996 | Boniol, Dall. | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 2003 | Cundiff, Dall. | 5 | 8 | 11 |
| 2007 | Graham, Cin. | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| 2007 | Bironas, Ten. | 7 | 8 | 7 |
None of Kansas City’s other pass catchers have any fantasy value. Jason Avant, Chris Conley, Albert Wilson, DeAnthony Thomas. None are getting enough opportunities to compile noteworthy stats. ... The Kansas City Defense isn’t even rostered in a lot of fantasy leagues, and that’s a mistake. It’s flying under the radar right now, giving up too many yards and points and averaging just over 2 sacks. But look at who it’s been playing -- undefeated teams three weeks in a row. This group will get back on track. It still might end up ranking in the top 5 in sacks. This is a more favorable matchup, at home against lesser opposition. The Bears have allowed 9 sacks so far, with 4 interceptions. Kansas City probably is a top-5 team in kick returns, and here it gets to face a team that’s already allowed 2 TDs via that route.