Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Whatever happened to Chip Kelly, offensive genius? Why is Pierre Garcon ranked so low? Who the heck is Charcandrick West? And what should we make of the Colts kicking the tires on Ahmad Bradshaw?
Question 1
Love the magazine and newsletter, by far the reason my teams always compete and I'm ahead of the competition when picking up diamonds in the rough. Keep up the great work. As you're always on the cutting edge of a trend setter in fantasy football world, I have question that I haven't seen posed either to you or in any other forum. With the advent of the "Targets" category (something that didn't exist when I started playing in 1992) how about we further divide that category a little bit for all those stat-hungry fantasy football fans and add the following: 1) Red Zone Targets, 2) Red Zone Runs, 3) Targets between the 20s, 4) Runs between the 20s. I'm not sure if you believe these sub-categories would be "useful" so to speak but they're certainly food for thought. Your thoughts, our leader?
STEVEN SALAMI (Hazlet, NJ)
We used to do some stuff with red zone stats. Every year we would have the STATS Inc. company put together a red zone report for us, with team totals and all the individual stats for that part of the field. But then we started all tabulating our own numbers for inside the 10, and I decided I liked those better. What is it, after all, that’s so special about a play from the 17-yard line? It’s when the ball is down their the end zone that they’re throwing to score. So nowadays, Andy Richardson carefully logs all plays inside the 10. Then I can go in and parse those numbers in meaningful ways. Running plays from the 1-2 yard line. Passing inside the 5. Receiving targets inside the 10. I find these numbers to be the ones that are truly meaningful for fantasy purposes. So after a few years of trying to sort through an impossibly large pile of papers, I decided I we could do without the red zone stuff.
Question 2
DeMarco Murray seems like the bust of the year, but could we have seen this coming? He was allergic to the end zone his first years in Dallas, then had one big year. I bought the Chip Kelly hype though, and (sorry) FFI rated the Eagles line the 3rd best in the league going into this year. Is it a matter of talent, or another goofy coach granted genius rating, based on a new idea, that got old in a hurry?
JOHN MACHO (Elko New Mrkt, MN)
I believe defensive coordinators have adjusted to that scheme. They’re doing a better job of having their teams ready to play at a fast tempo, and they’ve studied how those running plays work. It’s not a complex scheme. The Eagles run a small number of plays, relying not on Xs and Os but on the tempo they play. But it’s not novel anymore, so I think there’s going to be a large increase in the number of games it simply doesn’t work.
Question 3
I am a little confused on your ranking for Pierre Garcon. Leading into Week 1, you had him ranked in the Upper-30's for receivers (PPR format) and now you have him ranked in the Lower-80's. His ranking in the 30's was before D-Jax went down in Week 1, so it was not influenced by the D-Jax injury. But instead of improving his grade when D-Jax went down, his ranking has consistently gone down, which does not make sense since his production has been very consistent and above average. It would have made sense to either leave his ranking near where it was in Week 1 and start decreasing it when D-Jax comes back and shows he is healthy. Did you underestimate the projected contributions of the other skilled players in the passing game in Washington prior to the season starting, and now that you have a better sense of what Washington is doing on offense, you feel that when D-Jax comes back Garcon's production will go way down? Just trying to figure this out and get a sense of whether I should trade him now because his production is going to drop like a rock (since I drafted him based on a Top-40 ranking for receivers in PPR format). Thank you.
RICHARD PAPPALARDO (Bonita Springs, FL)
This letter came in prior to the game on Sunday, and you’re a step ahead of me. Congrats. Garcon is on pace to finish the year with 96 catches, and he’s been a solid producer the last two weeks if you’ve used him. Working back through it, I wasn’t so much concerned with DeSean Jackson. He’ll was going to return in Week 4-5, so I didn’t think he was going to have a big impact on Garcon’s value for the season. Washington for 161 and 182 yards in their first two games, and I was of the school of thought that the team would make a much bigger effort to run the ball this year. They have that nice one-two punch of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones, and running the ball would protect their defense and quarterback (who’s prone to way too many interceptions). So that was one driving factor. I changed Washington from being a team that would average maybe 240-250 passing yards down to a team that might average about 210 yards. I don’t have the exact number numbers. I was also of the opinion that Garcon might not be much better than the other lesser receivers on that roster – Ryan Grant and Andre Roberts. That didn’t pan out, but that’s what I was thinking. And finally, there was the steady production of tight end Jordan Reed, who was catching a bunch of balls. I had to move Reed’s production up, and that came at the expense of the other guys, including Garcon. Reed and Garcon are really the same kind of players in this offense; they’re both running the short routes. Anyway, that was my thinking, but it looks like your ideas were better. Washington has passed for 316 and 290 yards in its last two games, Reed is hurt now, and Garcon looks pretty good.
Question 4
What's up with the Chief's use of RBs Charles, West, and Davis? I didn't watch all the game, but I think in key red zone opportunities in the 4th quarter, when the Chiefs needed TDs, West was playing instead of Charles (seems ridiculous to me, as Charles is one of the great TD scorers), and Davis was M.I.A. Something up with Jamaal? Is Davis injured? Should I drop Davis and pick up West? (I have Charles, obviously.).
Craig Rinne (Delray Beach, FL)
Charcandrick West looked good in the preseason. I remember seeing him and concluding he was one of the very best No. 3 tailbacks in the league. It appears that he has no passed Knile Davis on the depth chart. Davis left the Packers game with an injury, but he appears to be healthy. He wasn’t on the injury report and returned kickoffs at Cincinnati. Davis hasn’t been that effective this year. Andy Reid is either trying to light a fire under him (possible) or simply likes West better. I think it’s the latter.
Question 5
I see that the Colts are taking a look at Ahmad Bradshaw. He was sensational last year until he got hurt, but that's just it: he gets hurt. How do you assess his value if they pick him up?
Dave (MOJO) Smith (Avon Park, FL)
Frank Gore is an older guy and Josh Robinson is just a rookie. They could just be looking to add another body to the mix. It’s unlikely both Gore and Robinson will be available for all 16 games, so they’ll probably need another back at some point. Bradshaw might be better in passing situations than either of those guys.
Question 6
Who are the active QBs with the most pick-six interceptions, total, and the most per 100 attempts?
peter chen (Stanford, CA)
Chase Stuart of FootballPerspective.com did a really nice study on this two years ago. According to his research, Brett Favre (35), Dan Marino (30) and Peyton Manning (29) have the most. Joe Namath probably has 26. Drew Brees is at 22. He notes that Aaron Rodgers has by far the fewest such plays in NFL history. I believe he’s at 2 right now. Tom Brady has been in the NFL for a similar number of years as Manning and has had 20 fewer interceptions returned for touchdowns, which is pretty remarkable.
Question 7
14 team 4-keeper league (no restrictions), td-only scoring... was wondering if you thought it worth rostering Kelvin Benjamin or Jordy Nelson with the last bench spot for a potential keeper next season? Do you have a preference between the two? When does this move start to make sense?
Timothy Lynch (New York, NY)
They both need to be on rosters at the end of the year. that’s for sure. I’m not sure which one I prefer more. Probably Benjamin, since he’s a lot younger. But Nelson is also good. Cost of these guys is that you lost some of the definite value of having that roster spot to play with throughout the year. If both are available, I would probably let them sit for now. As soon as somebody picks up one of them, that could be the signal that it’s about time to pick up the other.
Question 8
Dying at Running Back! Should I trade McCoy to get Arian Foster?
RANDY MOCK (Annapolis, MD)
A straight-up swap of underachieving backs with durability issues? They’ve played in a combined five games, and in only one of those guys did they average over 2.5 yards per carry. McCoy at least has the one productive game. He carried 15 times for 89 yards against the Patriots. He’s also on the better team. That hamstring should get healthy before too much longer, and at that point I think he’s the guy you’ll want to be holding.
Question 9
I use your rankings religiously for drafting (currently 4-0, thank you!) however I'm facing an issue I think people following your draft board might need to consider, they probably have some similar names. With Marshall on bye and Smith injured I need to fill the WR void. I have Tate (who's been garbage) and Terrance Williams (who can't seem to score before the end of the fourth quarter and has the propensity to get completely blanked). Should I cut bait with either or both? Should I target anyone on the waiver wire? I missed out on Hurns today (because despite the hype on him this week I have a hard time evaluating the number two JAC receiver versus the guys already on my team) but Hankerson is still available, as well as others, as it's a smaller league (10 team non-ppr). what do you recommend?
Al Washburn (Greenfield, WI)
I don’t think you need to show any loyalty to guys just because you drafted them. Tate is OK. The Lions are at home, and maybe they turn things around. You could live with him. Or maybe Terrance Williams hits a big play. But if you were drafting today, you would select Hankerson before either of those guys, and he’s at home against a Washington secondary that had a lot of blown coverages last week. I would go with Hankerson.
Question 10
I have been offered Melvin Gordon, Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson for Brandon Marshall and Chris Ivory. What do you think? I'm a little thin at RB with Lacy, Ivory, Abdullah, Christine and Starks. So this will bolster my RB stable. My WRs are Marshall, Hankerson, Hurns, Landry and Martavis so I'm pretty deep there. Do I need to make this trade? Or should I stand pat?
John Calvo (Miami, FL)
What is it that you’re trying to achieve? Marshall is a lot better than Jackson. Ivory is a lot better than Gordon or Martin. You’ve got Starks behind Lacy, so that’s definitely one spot that’s locked up every week. I’m not giving up on Ameed Abdullah. I saw him back three really nice plays in the opener and a couple more in the preseason. Give him a little blocking, and I think he’ll make an impact. So I think you’re fine with Abdullah as your third back. No reason to weaken two starting spots to bring in a couple of candidates who aren’t necessarily even updates.
Question 11
Would you recommend releasing Isaiah Crowell for either Chris Johnson or Ronnie Hillman in a TD-only league?
Wayne Ellis (St. Petersburg, FL)
I think I’d go with Hillman. I believe he’ll be Denver’s best running back, and that ground game could come together at some point.
Question 12
What are your thoughts on this trade? 12-team PPR league, start 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 Flex. 16 roster spots per team and RB is very difficult to come by. Best available right now is probably Theo Riddick or Alfred Blue. It's thin. I've got Forsett, Gurley, D. Martin, McFadden, and Taliaferro at RB; Julio, A. Jeffery, Jordan Matthews, D. Moncrief, K. Wright, and D. Adams at WR. Trade is Jeffery for Dion Lewis. I'm reluctant to give up my 2nd round pick who has yet to really play, but I think it's a good move so I have a third or fourth solid RB starter. And I'd rather have the starting RB on the best team in the NFL (even if it is a fickle Belichick-coached team) rather than the number 1WR are one of the league's three or four worst teams.
James Smith (Traverse City, MI)
Sounds good. Looks like you could use the help more at running back. If you were to add Lewis, I believe he would start a lot more games for you than Jeffery.
Question 13
Tough RB decision in a TD-based league that awards only 5 points for 100 yards rushing and 6 points for a TD. Hill's good for this format and is coming off a big TD game, but he's going against a Seahawks D that has not allowed a rushing TD all year. Do I bench him for Chris Johnson, Lewis or Martin? I plan on starting Foster at RB1.
Richard Weber (Fort Myers, FL)
None of those guys are running for 100 yards, so that’s not a factor. It’s a touchdown-only league. I’ve got Lewis the highest on my board.