SAN FRANCISCO (vs Arizona):
San Francisco won't win this game, but there appears to be some underbelly fantasy value. The 49ers tend to play better at home, and they've played a little better since they benched Colin Kaepernick. Arizona may look like a Super Bowl contender, but it's giving up plenty of points. Since beating San Francisco 47-7 back in Week 3, the Cardinals have allowed at least 2 TDs in seven straight games. San Francisco is averaging only 14 points per game, with 13 TDs in 10 contests, but we're thinking the offense has a good chance to creep up to 2 TDs in this game. ... Anquan Boldin is still playing hard. He's got a bad hamstring but played against Seattle anyway and played well, catching 5 passes for 93 yards. Now he plays against an Arizona defense that might be without ...
This report is taken from today's Week 12 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... its key cover guy, Patrick Peterson. He left the Cincinnati game in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury. With this game being a lesser priority for the Cardinals, they may hold him out. Assuming Peterson is out (which we'll confirm on Friday in the supplement) we like the potential of Boldin to pile up some stats in this game. In the past, he has seemed to get up for games against his former team.
| Boldin against Arizona | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Site | Rec | Yds | TD |
| 2011 | Balt. | 7 | 145 | 0 |
| 2013 | S.F. | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| 2013 | Ariz. | 9 | 149 | 1 |
| 2014 | S.F. | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| 2014 | Ariz. | 2 | 81 | 1 |
| 2015 | Ariz. | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Blaine Gabbert has been an upgrade over Colin Kaepernick. He has a better command of the offense and is more decisive getting the ball out of his hands. Gabbert tossed 2 TDs against Atlanta and finished with 264 yards and a touchdown at Seattle -- not bad, considering the level of competition. He's also more mobile than you might expect, running for 32 and 22 yards in his two starts. The Cardinals have a great offense, but that probably means they'll take a big lead early, maybe helping Gabbert to a pretty busy game -- especially in the second half. In the earlier game, Kaepernick passed for only 67 yards; no getting around that. But Gabbert is a better fit in this system, and it's not a great secondary he'll face (especially if Patrick Peterson is out). The Rams and Steelers both passed for under 175 yards against Arizona, but that was with both teams getting really good production from their running backs (and winning). In Arizona's other seven games, it's allowed an average of 286 passing yards, with 11 TDs. We're not trying to put Gabbert up there with the likes of Joe Montana and Steve Young, but he might pass for 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns in this game. We're putting him down for 230 and 1-2 TDs on our board. If they played this game twice, he'd probably throw 3 TDs. ... Gabbert has some ability to connect with his tight ends, but he's not using just one. In the two games he's started, Vance McDonald has caught 6 passes and a touchdown, while Garrett Celek has caught 4 passes and 2 TDs. Interesting, but we don't see quite enough to recommend either guy. Arizona has allowed only 3 TDs to tight ends this year, and all were to guys having great years -- Tyler Eifert and Gary Barnidge. ... Carlos Hyde has been out for a month with a foot injury -- probably a stress fracture in his foot. The 49ers presumably feel Hyde will return at some point; otherwise they would place him on injured reserve. But Hyde didn't practice at all last week, so chances are it will be Shaun Draughn at tailback again. Draughn is a journeyman-type runner, but with the way this game should go, he would have nice value in a PPR format. He's caught 12 passes for 78 yards in his last two games, and in PPR scoring that production alone is worth 19.8 points -- more than 3 TDs. The 49ers some other lesser backs but used Draughn full-time at Seattle. ... We're not crazy about Torrey Smith. He's a one-trick pony. Too much of his game is dependent on hitting on a long reception, and those kind of plays are difficult to execute. He's caught 3 passes for 60 yards in the two games Gabbert has started. ... Phil Dawson is a lesser kicker. Right now it looks like he'll fall short of 100 points for the season. Best we can offer is that the 49ers play better at home, but even in those games Dawson hasn't been much of a scorer, with 8, 3, 13, 3 and 5 points. ... We have no interest in the 49ers Defense. It's really been struggling, while Arizona has one of the best offenses in the league. Carson Palmer has been sacked only 16 times, with 9 interceptions, while the 49ers are sitting at 18 sacks and 7 picks, so those kind of numbers indicate San Francisco at least has a chance to sneak up to 2 sacks and an interception. The 49ers at least have played better at home, where they haven't allowed more than 20 points in any of their five games.