Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. Special Black Friday edition. What does it mean, if anything, when a defense ranks in the top 10 against the run or pass? Can two Jacksons replace one Julio at wide receiver? And is it time to give Brandon McManus the boot?

Question 1

Long time subscriber and thank you for the extensive research you put into your weekly reports. With the advent of DFS I have become more aware of defensive ratings and the more I look into them, the more confused I become. In addition to your report I follow what I think are three of the more "reputable" sites as well as the stats from the NFL website . The team defensive stats are all over the board and can change dramatically from week to week. For instance the Raiders defense vs. the run moved from 8th to 23rd in one week in your current weekly! Whatever metric is being used there seems to not be a true reflection of the actual strength of that defense. The Index has the Eagles ranked 19th vs. the run in spite of allowing only 1 rushing TD at home outside of Carolina. Most other services have the Eagles anywhere from 3rd to 8th. That is a wide range. One service supposedly adjusts for the strength of schedule (good luck with that). The Index happened to be closer to reality this week as Doug Martin ran wild. Another is based on FFP allowed by position. There are so many injuries etc. from week 1 to now, that the older stats should not carry the same weight as a current stat. Does anyone use the last 3-4 weeks only? Also allowing 200 yards to AP should not have the same weight as 200 yards to Alfred Blue. Stats from teams with key injuries (ie Romo etc) should be adjusted in some way to reflect the before and after of such key injuries. I agree it's subjective but the finished rating should be more in line with the team's actual rating. Any suggestions on what metric seems most reliable? Thanks.

Norm Foisy (Lafayette, CA)

A good topic for discussion, and let me clarify some of the language we use. When we write that a team has a top-10 run defense or ranks 8th in run defense, we’re referring to how many rushing yards it has allowed. That’s the league standard. When Minnesota allowed 230 rushing yards at San Francisco in that first Monday night game, it then for the next week ranked last in run defense. That doesn’t necessarily mean Andy or I believe it’s the worst run defense in the league or will even finish the year below average. It’s a statement of fact. In typical NFL speak, defenses are measured by how many yards and points they are allowing. That’s not necessarily fair. If you want a more complete measure of a defense, you can look at other indicators. Yards per carry, for example, for a run defense. Completion percentage or passer rating for pass defenses. And you can look at the number of rushing touchdowns and passing touchdowns allowed. In my writing, I stay away from fantasy numbers. That is, you’ll never here me say, “Ben Roethlisberger has generated over 20 fantasy points four games in a row.” Because anytime you start getting into those kind of numbers, you alienate most of your readers (who are all using different formats). And I don’t think it’s the language we as football fans speak. Readers are more comfortable with hearing Antonio Brown caught 13 passes for 157 yards, rather than hearing that he had 28.7 fantasy points. I do veer away from the league standards in one area. In the NFL, offenses and defenses are ranked in terms of net passing yards. That is, you take the passing yards gained (305, perhaps), subtract the 20 yards lost on sacks, and say that an offense finished with 285 passing yards. For fantasy purposes, we are just interested in the 305 gained. So when I mention that a defense has allowed over 300 passing yards four weeks in a row, that’s outside of sacks. When I say a defense is allowing 277 passing yards per game, that’s not including sacks. When I’m looking at a game, I have the week-by-week totals in front of me, and I always reference those, rather than simply relying only on the total. With the Vikings, for example, they’re allowing 110 rushing yards per game, which is a middle-of-the-pack number, but they got cooked for 230 yards in that first game. Set that one aside and they’re allowing only 97 rushing yards per game, which is a top-10 run defense. When looking at these week-by-week numbers, I always have one eye on the opposition. If a defense allows 120 rushing yards against Carolina, for example, that’s a very good day. If it allows 120 rushing yards against Detroit or Cleveland, that’s terrible. I don’t believe there is a magic “metric”. I don’t think you can write a complex algorithm that ranks the defenses 1 thru 32. You’ve got to go through and work the numbers, attaching meaning to what is happening. That’s what Andy and I are trying to do each with in the team capsules.

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Question 2

I have been a subscriber since 1995. I'm in a three-way tie for first place and I'm trading Julio & Lamar Miller for DeAngelo Williams & Mark Ingram this week. So I need to fill Julio's shoes. I'm interested in DeSean Jackson, Devin Funchess, Vincent Jackson (in that order). What do you say ?

JON S (Coon Rapids, MN)

I double-checked the trade. Williams/Ingram grade out slightly higher for total projected, relative to Jones/Miller. So the trade is reasonable. As for the receivers, Funchess has been coming on some, but I would be looking at the two Jacksons. DeSean Jackson is healthy now, and he’s a big-play guy. He hit on his first long touchdown of the season last week. I think he’s got more of them left in him. If you’re interested in Week 16, keep in mind that Washington that week is playing at Philadelphia. I’m just Jackson would like nothing more than to rub salt in the wounds in what likely will be the last home game in the Chip Kelly Era. I also like Vincent Jackson, with the Bucs coming on. His matchup in Week 14 couldn’t be better – at home against the Saints. I wouldn’t count on much from Vincent Jackson in Week 15 (at St. Louis).

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Question 3

Looking for kickers and defenses for weeks 13-16. I'm locked in with the #1 seed and currently have McManus along with Denver and New England defenses.

JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)

I think you’ll be able to mix and match with the defenses you have. I would be looking to add a kicker. McManus should be fine for Weeks 13-14 against the Chargers and Raiders, but I think you can do better in Weeks 15-16

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