Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. What will the Seahawks do with their running backs in 2016? And an early look at Duke Johnson Jr., Kirk Cousins, Donte Moncrief and Dion Lewis.
Question 1
Would like to hear your opinion of Seattle's running back situation. The media seems to think Lynch will retire or get released and end up with someone like Oakland. Rawls is coming off a serious injury and his bruising style may always make him an injury risk. Christian Michael is the wildcard - lots of promise and flashes of talent, but may not have the work ethic and smarts to succeed. Is there another guy waiting in the wings we haven't heard about? Will the Hawks resort to a committee situation and use someone like Jackson as a 3rd down pass-catching back?
Andrew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
Very unlikely that Marshawn Lynch returns. Certainly there’s no way he’s coming back under his current contract, which calls for him to make $9 million in 2016. I suppose it’s technically possible that he takes a pay cut and returns. Stranger things have happened. But doesn’t look particularly likely. I think he’s been a tough guy to deal with for the coaching staff, and he’ll also be 30 in April. Far more likely that he’ll either retire or wind up with another team. If he plays anywhere, I would say the Raiders make the most sense. He’s from Oakland, and they would like to add another running back. I don’t see Lynch being much of a fantasy option at this point. He’s starting to break down. With his off-field antics, he doesn’t look like a good fit with the other Bay Area team (with Chip Kelly coaching in San Francisco). For the Seahawks, I imagine they’ll probably add another running back in the draft; maybe a third- or fourth-round pick. But right now my leaning is that they’ll use Thomas Rawls as their starter, with Christine Michael as the No. 2. Rawls was very effective when he played last year. My main concern is whether he can hold up physically. He weighs 215 pounds, and he’s one of those punishing, high-contact runners like Chris Ivory who’s always trying to run over people. Those kind of backs tend to get beat up, missing games or at least slowing down later in the year. If I were drafting today, Michael would be one of the first second-string running backs I would select. I thought he looked pretty good late last year. The offensive line got overrun in the loss to the Rams, but he ran for 84 yards against Cleveland and 102 yards at Arizona. He went for 70 yards on 21 carries at Minnesota, and that was another game where I didn’t think he had a lot of room. Michael has had problems with ball security in the past, but he didn’t fumble on any of his 79 touches last year. Rawls-Michael; I think that those will be their main two backs. Fred Jackson will be 35 in a few weeks. I think his NFL career is over.
Question 2
Way too early 2016 keeper/dynasty question: in a PPR league, please help me choose 3 of these 4 players where the number in parentheses represents the round of the draft forfeited by keeping that player. The choices are Duke Johnson (9), Kirk Cousins (10), Dion Lewis (11) and Donte Moncrief (15). Thanks in advance!
Jason Schuetz (Fort Collins, CO)
They all look like solid enough choices to me. Suppose nobody in your league protected anybody; where would these players be chosen. Moncrief is a starting wide receiver for the Colts, who probably will have one of the top half-dozen passing attacks. I would expect he’ll be selected maybe around the 7th round. He’s probably your best overall value. Too early to say for sure, but I expect Lewis will come back from his torn ACL and be the starting tailback for the Patriots, and he’s very PPR friendly in that offense – averaged over 5 catches per game last year, with 4 TDs in the seven games he played. If he’s clearly 100 percent and they don’t add some other big-time back in the offseason, Lewis potentially could be a 4th-round pick. Another guy who looks like pretty much a shoo-in. With Kirk Cousins, I think you’re looking at a depth quarterback. I haven’t yet stacked a board for 2016, but I would guess he’ll come in around somewhere from 10th-15th among quarterbacks. He should be picked a round or two before the 10th round. At least. So he’s definitely in the mix. Without knowing the full lay of the land in your league, Cousins would be my third guy. But Duke Johnson Jr. isn’t far behind. They’ve got two backs in Cleveland – Johnson and Isaiah Crowell. That’s the one-two punch, at least for now. And with the Browns having lots of needs, I think those will be their two backs. Crowell is a good power runner, but Johnson is a more versatile back and a much better pass catcher. In the preseason, one of their assistant coaches compared him to Giovani Bernard, and I think that looks pretty accurate. Hue Jackson in Cincinnati had Jeremy Hill and Bernard, and I’m thinking he will use these backs in the same kind of way. Crowell is more like Hill – a back who can bang between the tackles, but not somebody you want to throw passes to. Johnson gets maybe 40 percent of the playing time; he’s better running outside and might catch 50 passes. Johnson caught 61 passes as a rookie, but I don’t think the Browns will pass nearly as much under Jackson. Early to be locking in on choices, but today I will guess that Johnson might be selected in the 7th or 8th round. Right now, I’m not protecting Johnson, but he could move up into one of those three spots before camp opens.