On Monday and Tuesday I posted previews of the two offenses that will play on Sunday, tabulating forecasts for all of the skill-position players and kickers for Super Bowl 50. But those articles didn’t include the defenses, so I will break them down now.

Sacks:

Strictly off the overall numbers, the teams look pretty similar. Each team has played 18 games. The Broncos have 7 more sacks, while the Panthers have allowed 8 fewer. Combined, you’re looking at 94-95 sacks on each side of the equation, which works out to about 2.6.

With Denver, however, they used Brock Osweiler for about a third of their games, and he tends to get caught holding the ball. Peyton Manning took only 19 sacks in his 11 starts. Strictly in terms of getting the ball out of his hands, he’s a little better than Cam Newton, who’s taken 35 sacks (about 2 per game). Newton is an athletic, powerful runner, but he’s not particularly quick. I think Denver’s speed guys will get there on some plays, and while Newton is huge, I think they’ll be able to get him on the ground some. So I’m thinking about 3 sacks for the Broncos, versus only about 2 sacks for the Panthers.

Fumbles:

I don’t see anything too notable here. Both offenses have lost 9 fumbles in 18 games – about one every two weeks. Carolina has recovered 18 fumbles, while Denver’s defense is at 14. So for both sides, I think about a 65-70 percent chance of a fumble recovery is the correct forecast. I think Denver’s defense will get to Newton more often than the Panthers hit Manning, so I’m putting the Broncos just a fraction higher – maybe Von Miller or DeMarcus Ware knocks it out of Newton’s hands as he’s trying to escape out of a sack.

Interceptions:

This is where I give the Panthers a huge edge. They led the league in interceptions in the regular season. They’ve got 30 picks, which is 14 more than the Broncos. Denver, meanwhile, threw more picks than any other franchise in the regular season (making for a first-against-worst Super Bowl matchup that we won’t see again in our lifetimes). Peyton Manning has thrown 17 interceptions in the 11 games he’s started. Cam Newton, meanwhile has thrown only 11 interceptions in 18 games. So on the one side, the Panthers probably will get 2 interceptions in this game. Maybe the game busts open and they 3-4. The Broncos, meanwhile, look very unlikely to finish with more than one interception (and they might not even get that). If you blend together Denver’s defense versus Cam Newton, you get only 27 interceptions in 36 games.

Touchdowns:

I want to see what odds are being offered on the probability of a Pick Six. The Panthers have scored 6 TDs on interception returns, including ones in each of their last two games. With them playing in 18 games, that works out to about one every three games. Peyton Manning has thrown 17 interceptions in 11 starts, including 3 returned for touchdowns. He’s thrown Pick Sixes in each of his last two Super Bowl games, against the Saints and Seahawks. For much of this year, the Broncos have tried to protect Manning by relying more on their defense and running game. If and when they fall behind, they’ll need to open things up more. When Manning starts throwing more, there will be a really good chance that somebody will jump a route, turning it into a touchdown going the other way. If this game unfolds the way I think it will, there’s maybe a 40 percent chance Carolina scores on an interception return in this game. For those in a TD-only format, therefore, the Panthers defense should come in ahead of a lot of the more heralded skill-position guys.

The Broncos also have some guys who know how to jump routes. They scored 4 TDs on interceptions in the regular season. But they’re working against Cam Newton, who’s less likely to give them much to work with. He hasn’t had any interceptions returned for touchdowns this year. Last year he threw 2 including the postseason.

For touchdowns on a fumble return, I don’t see anything significant. There were only 30 of those touchdowns in the regular season, or about once every 17 games. I put the Broncos a tiny bit higher in fumble potential, so I suppose it’s logical to also put them a little higher in fumble touchdown potential.

Neither team looks likely to score on a kick return. Neither team has a big-time kickoff returner. Ted Ginn Jr. had a 32-yard return against Arizona, and he had a couple of dangerous-looking returns in the regular season, but he’s scored on only one punt return in the last four years. Denver scored on a punt return at Indianapolis, but that was Omar Bolden, and he’s now on injured reserve. They’ve got Jordan Norwood handling punts now, and he seems to be more of a hands guy, rather than somebody with any potential to string together a long return.

Scoring systems vary, but Carolina looks like the better choice overall for the defense and special teams category.

Blending together our projections for the two offenses, our overall board is now in place. This is using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 10 run/rec yards, 1 for every 20 passing yards, 2 for takeaways and 1 for sacks.

SUPER BOWL PLAYER PROJECTIONS
RkPosTmPlayerYardsTDPoints
1.QBCARCam Newton2772.2426.1
2.QBDENPeyton Manning2351.1616.4
3.RBCARJonathan Stewart83.5611.7
4.TECARGreg Olsen75.5710.9
5.STCARPanthers (D-ST)--.4710.0
6.WRDENEmmanuel Sanders69.298.7
7.PKCARGraham Gano0.008.6
8.WRDENDemaryius Thomas66.258.1
9.RBDENC.J. Anderson54.387.7
10.PKDENBrandon McManus0.006.9
11.STDENBroncos (D-ST)--.196.8
12.RBDENRonnie Hillman47.326.6
13.WRCARTed Ginn Jr.45.346.5
14.WRCARPhilly Brown35.214.7
15.TEDENOwen Daniels25.314.3
16.WRCARJerricho Cotchery30.174.1
17.RBCARMike Tolbert22.263.8
18.WRCARDevin Funchess23.193.5
19.WRDENJordan Norwood25.113.1
20.TECAREd Dickson9.101.6
21.WRDENBennie Fowler12.041.5
22.WRDENAndre Caldwell10.031.2
23.TEDENVirgil Green7.051.0
24.WRDENCody Latimer7.02.9
25.QBDENBrock Osweiler10.05.7
26.RBCARFozzy Whittaker5.02.6
27.TEDENVernon Davis2.01.3
28.QBCARDerek Anderson2.02.2
29.TECARScott Simonson1.01.1
30.RBDENJuwan Thompson1.01.1
31.WRCARBrenton Bersin0.00.1
32.RBCARCameron Artis-Payne0.00.1
33.WRCARKevin Norwood0.00.0
34.QBCARJoe Webb0.00.0
35.RBCARBrandon Wegher0.00.0
36.QBDENTrevor Siemian0.00.0

—Ian Allan