The way the Panthers slapped around Arizona (and also took that 31-0 lead against Seattle) it’s awfully tempting to assume they’ll come out on Sunday and do something similar against the Broncos. They look really strong right now, while the Broncos look pretty ordinary. But history indicates that counting on a team to replicate what it did in its previous game is usually a pretty dumb idea.

In the Super Bowl Era, in fact, 20 times a team has moved into the championship game after winning by 20-plus points. But those teams are surprisingly just 7-13 in the ensuing game for all the marbles.

The Bills, most famously, clobbered the Los Angeles Raiders 51-3 in 1990, then came up a point short in the Super Bowl. The Giants smoked the Vikings 41-0 in 2000, then got blown out by the Ravens in the championship game.

In 49 years, only three teams have won their conference championship by 20-plus points, then come back and also won the Super Bowl by 20-plus points. It happened three times in the ’80s, with the 49ers twice and the 1985 Chicago Bears.

ENDING YEAR WITH TWO BLOWOUTS
YearTeamConferenceSuper Bowl
1966Kansas City31-7 at BillsL 35-10 vs. Packers
1967Oakland40-7 vs. OilersL 33-14 vs. Packers
1968Baltimore34-0 at BrownsL 16-7 vs. Jets
1969Minnesota27-7 vs. BrownsL 23-7 vs. Chiefs
1971Miami21-0 vs. ColtsL 24-3 vs. Cowboys
1972Washington26-3 vs. CowboysL 14-7 vs. Dolphins
1975Dallas37-7 at RamsL 21-17 vs. Steelers
1978Pittsburgh34-5 vs. OilersW 35-31 vs. Cowboys
1978Dallas28-0 at RamsL 35-31 vs. Steelers
1981Cincinnati27-7 vs. ChargersL 26-21 vs. 49ers
1984San Francisco23-0 vs. BearsW 38-16 vs. Dolphins
1985Chicago24-0 vs. RamsW 46-10 vs. Patriots
1988San Francisco28-3 at BearsW 20-16 vs. Bengals
1989San Francisco30-3 vs. RamsW 55-10 vs. Broncos
1990Buffalo51-3 vs. RaidersL 20-19 vs. Giants
1991Washington41-10 vs. LionsW 37-24 vs. Bills
2000N.Y. Giants41-0 vs. VikingsL 34-7 vs. Ravens
2005Seattle34-14 vs. PanthersL 21-10 vs. Steelers
2006Chicago39-14 vs. SaintsL 29-17 vs. Colts
2014New England45-7 vs. ColtsW 28-24 vs. Seahawks
2015Carolina49-15 vs. Cardinals???

But you can play around with whatever numbers you want. My gut still tells me that the Panthers are going to win, and that it will be one-sided. Denver’s defense is very solid, but Carolina’s offensive versatility, along with the potential of defensive touchdowns, I think the Panthers have a chance to maybe win this game by 20 points.

—Ian Allan