Earlier in the week I took a detailed look at both offenses for the Super Bowl – how they match up for this game, with exact projections for each player. Now that I see the scroll of prop bets rolling by, I can pick out a few where the numbers they’ve picked are a little out of whack.

Prop bets have grown in popularity in recent years, and they’re doing a better job of identifying and including fun ones each year. Such as “Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge?” or “How many times will announcers say dab/dabbing (over-under 1.5)”. I will stay away from those here, where the object isn’t so much fun as just identifying winners.

I will also stay away from the odd-ball bets with bloated lines, such as “Will ‘Left Shark’ make an appearance on stage during the halftime show?” “Will there be an earthquake during the game?” “Will there be a power outage at the stadium during the game?” None of those things will happen, and I’m surprised they’re even being offered, but I will stick mostly to the 50-50 type offers. Unless otherwise mentioned, on all of these you have to put down $110 dollars if you want to win $100. That is, if you bet $110, you get $210 total if you win.

And these are the ones that caught my eye.

Panthers will have 26.5 more rushing yards than Broncos
When I studied these teams earlier in the week, I came to the conclusion that Carolina will run for 63 more yards than Denver. Both teams have similar running games in terms of running backs, but the Panthers also have Cam Newton running for 39 yards per game, while Peyton Manning has no mobility. In the regular season, Carolina averaged 143 per game, while the Broncos were down at 107 (with their best running game coming when Brock Osweiler was at quarterback). Of all of the prop bets, this one is my favorite – by far.

Jonathan Stewart under 13.5 receiving yards
He’s not a big part of their passing game. He’s been over 13 yards in only two of his last 14 games.

Devin Funchess under 28.5 receiving yards
He’s made a few nice catches here and there, but he really doesn’t play that much. Isn’t fast enough to get downfield, and they don’t use him on those kind of routes. Setting aside three games where Ted Ginn Jr. or Philly Brown was hurt, he’s been over 25 yards in only two of 15 games.

C.J. Anderson’s long run under 19.5 yards
Anderson has had a run over 25 yards four games in a row. That surprises me. But all of those games were at home, and he’s not a speedy, big-play back. In only three of his other 13 games did he have a run over 15 yards. And just one run over 15 yards on the road, and it came against a really bad Chargers run defense. Carolina ranked 4th against the run in the regular season. If and when the Panthers take control of this game, Broncos will have to move away from the run.

C.J. Anderson under 58.5 rushing yards
I will admit that I am double-dipping here. It’s kind of the same as the long run prop. If Anderson doesn’t hit a run of 20-plus yards, he’ll have little chance of getting anywhere near 58 yards. Denver has a really ordinary running game, and he’s splitting time with Ronnie Hillman (who’s actually started each of their last 12 games). Carolina is very stout against the run, allowing under 80 rushing yards in 10 of its last 11 games.

Cam Newton under 2.5 open shirt Superman motions
Newton likes to dance around after first downs, but he only does the Superman deal, I believe, when he scores a rushing touchdown. No way is he running for 3 TDs.

Cam Newton over 37.5 rushing yards
I think he’ll run more than usual. This is a big game; I think that helps. And this kind of defense may help nudge him in that direction. The Broncos are really good against the pass, so Carolina doesn’t want Newton dropping back and being a pocket passer. That wouldn’t create possibility that he might throw a couple of interceptions and lose the game. Denver has the two great speed rushers, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, and the Panthers don’t want to give them the green light to sprint upfield on every play. Better to attack them with the run, which includes not only running backs but Newton carrying the ball himself.

Owen Daniels under 33.5 receiving yards
Daniels caught 2 TDs in his last game, but he’s actually not a big part of Denver’s passing game. Peyton Manning has started 11 games, and Daniels has finished with over 33 yards in only two of those games. He was better with Brock Osweiler, going over in four of seven. Under.

Jonathan Stewart over 18.5 rushing attempts
That’s a big numbers, but Stewart is a heavily used part of Carolina’s offense. Other than a game he left early with a foot injury, Stewart has gone over 18 carries in 10 straight games. With Denver having the great secondary, the Panthers will be sure to stick with a healthy number of running plays.

Those are the nine I’m going with. Hypothetically, I would be wagering $110 on each. So if I get five right, I would come out $60 ahead (winning $500 but losing $440). If I can get six correct, that would translate into $270. If I can hit on all but two, that would result in a $480 profit. We’ll see how it goes.

There are a few other bets that I looked at.

Peyton Manning Pick Six I saw somewhere that the odds are 3-to-1. Looking at that earlier in the week, I was thinking there was something like a 40-plus percent chance he’ll have an interception returned for a touchdown. I would like to set some money down on that, but I wish it was priced to make the payoff more favorable. I’m leaving it out of the study.

Will there be a safety? What is it about safeties and the Super Bowl? They have tended to occur more in this game. As a Steelers fan growing up, I remember them scoring on safeties in each of their first two Super Bowls. Tom Brady got caught on an intentional ground call against the Giants, and the Ravens took one on purpose at the end of their win over the 49ers. However you slice it, there has been a safety in seven of the 49 Super Bowls – once per every seven games. In the regular season in this century, however, safeties have occurred (on average) only once every 16 games.

Anyway, they’ve got it slotted at +$550 and -$800. Let look at each side. Starting with the “Yes, there will be a safety”. If you bet $100 on every game, than if it was occurring every 16 games, you would lose $1,500 on each chunk of game, with a $550 winner thrown in there every once in a while. So that one makes no sense. If you want to assume that there is something special about Super Bowls, and it occurs once every seven games, than you would lose $600 in each seven-game batch, with a $550 winner thrown in there in every seventh. So you’d still be losing $50 per every seven games. Want no part of hoping for a safety.

On the other hand, let’s look at the “no”. Suppose it occurs every 16 games. Suppose you bet $800 on every game. On 15 of those, you’d come out $100 ahead. There would be a $800 loser every once in a while. Overall, you’d come out $700 ahead of every block of 16 games. So that makes sense. Suppose you think there’s something to the Super Bowl safety hex, and lower the probability down to 1 in 7. Then, you would have a $100 winner for six of every seven games, with an $800 loss in there once in a while, for a net of losing $200 for every seven games. If you were to conservatively conclude that there’s a 1-in-12 chance of a safety in each Super Bowl, then you would come out $300 ahead for every block of 12 games. The correct course, then, is to bet against a safety occurring (but I’m leaving it out of the study, since it doesn’t fit the same 50-50 type profile of the other wagers).

Kickoffs/touchbacks I spent quality time (more than an hour) studying the touchback percentages of Brandon McManus and Graham Gano. For each guy, you must wager $200 to win $100 if his first kickoff is a touchback. For each, you receive $175 (on a $100 bet) if his first kickoff is not a touchback.

For Gano, 68 percent of his kickoffs went for touchbacks. I think McManus isn’t quite as strong. Setting aside his work at Mile High, he was down at 63 percent. Looking at just his half-opening kickoffs, Gano had 13 touchbacks and 5 fails in his 18 games. For McManus, he’s at 9-5 in his eight road games (that’s looking at his first kickoff of each half in those games – wanted to stay away from Mile High). Gano is definitely the stronger choice.

Plugging in their performance, you would be $300 ahead right now if you had bet for a Gano touchback in all 18 of their games (that’s making $200 bets each week). You would be $425 behind if you’d bet $100 against Gano touchbacks in each game. For McManus, you’d be behind if betting either way (for just his games away from altitude).

So maybe you can make some case to beat for Gano in this game, but the math is funny and the weather could also affect things. I see the forecast isn’t particularly good for Sunday, with a 70 percent chance of rain and winds of 10-15 mph. Anybody thinking of wagering on kickoffs should check the forecast on Sunday morning.

That's all I came up with. Let me know if you see a prop bet with promise that you think I overlooked.