Broncos select Paxton Lynch, and that’s kind of exciting. He’s like a more athletic version of Brock Osweiler – runs better and has a slightly better arm. He’s got the Super Bowl cast around him, and they just need to give him the proper seasoning to get him going. But is it that easy?

John Elway is a Hall of Fame quarterback, and he thinks Lynch is for real. He traded up to get him. The Cowboys supposedly wanted him. Gary Kubiak is on board.

But if Lynch is a can’t-miss prospect, he would have gone a lot sooner.

History tells us that when most of the league passes on a guy, that means there’s usually some kind of fatal flaw with said prospect.

In the last 20 years, 15 other quarterbacks have been selected in the second half of the first round. Only two of those guys have hit it really big – Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco.

Two others have had some success. Chad Pennington was an NFL starter from the neck up, but was always at the big disadvantage of having probably the league’s weakest arm. Teddy Bridgewater has been fine in his first two years with the Vikings, but I think he looks like a Pennington-type guy – a decent pro, but not a starter many other teams would actually want.

And the other 11 who’ve gone in the second half of the first round have all been misses.

So maybe they get Paxton Lynch polished up, but history indicates it’s far more likely he’ll fizzle.

We’ll see.

QUARTERBACKS IN SECOND HALF OF FIRST ROUND (last 20 years)
YearPickPlayerSchool
199726Jim DruckenmillerVirginia Tech
200018Chad PenningtonMarshall
200232Patrick RamseyTulane (La.)
200319Kyle BollerCalifornia
200322Rex GrossmanFlorida
200422J.P. LosmanTulane (La.)
200524Aaron RodgersCalifornia
200525Jason CampbellAuburn
200722Brady QuinnNotre Dame
200818Joe FlaccoDelaware
200917Josh FreemanKansas State
201025Tim TebowFlorida
201222Brandon WeedenOklahoma State
201422Johnny ManzielTexas A&M
201432Teddy BridgewaterLouisville
201526Paxton LynchMemphis

—Ian Allan