Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Identifying the best draft position. Dynasty rankings for rookies. And which receivers tend to catch the most touchdowns.
Question 1
As a follow up to my question two weeks ago, I was wondering how you think draft slot is affected by using a third round reversal (with pick 12 having the 12, 13 and 25 picks) in a PPR league. As you showed in the standard serpentine the first overall draft slot has a clear advantage. However, do you think that holds true for the earlier picks in this format?
John Mortensen (Long Beach, NY)
When you asked this question earlier, the answer was based not on the expected value but the values as if everyone selected the correct player. Big difference there, since rarely does the No. 1 most valuable player actually get picked first overall. So let’s look at it from the more realistic viewpoint of “expected” value – that is, using my stat projections. For this study, I’m looking at only the first 96 players selected (eight for each team). Those final 8-10 rounds, we’ll just leave them out. Using “bang for your buck” projection numbers, I believe the best two draft slots (in a standard draft) are the first two. And the worst are the teams drafting 10-12. After the first eight rounds, according to my calculations, the two teams picking first should be over 60 points ahead of those bottom-3 teams after the first eight rounds.
With the Third Round Reversal system, the playing field is leveled somewhat, giving those lower teams a chance to make up some of that ground. It works nicely in this case. The teams with picks 1-4 still hold the four best spots, and teams picking 10-12 still hold the worst three spots, but everything is shifted. All six of the top teams project to lose points, while all six of the bottom teams should in theory gain. The top 2 teams each lose 8 points of value, while the bottom 2 both gain about 8 points. In my opinion, if you’re drafting players, the 3RR format is the way to go.
VALUES OF DRAFT POSITIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Position | Sine | 3RR | Difference |
Slot 1 | 80 | 72 | -7.8 |
Slot 2 | 64 | 56 | -8.0 |
Slot 4 | 47 | 40 | -7.3 |
Slot 3 | 44 | 41 | -3.5 |
Slot 5 | 34 | 29 | -5.3 |
Slot 6 | 26 | 23 | -2.8 |
Slot 7 | 14 | 17 | 2.8 |
Slot 9 | 8 | 15 | 7.3 |
Slot 8 | 6 | 11 | 5.3 |
Slot 10 | 3 | 6 | 3.5 |
Slot 12 | 1 | 8 | 7.8 |
Slot 11 | 0 | 8 | 8.0 |
Question 2
Can you provide rookie rankings for a PPR dynasty league? My dynasty league is coming up and I was hoping to get an idea of where to expect guys to go. I have the 7th overall pick out of 12 teams and we draft 3 rounds.
Kyle Wells (Lynnwood, WA)
Ezekiel Elliott will be the first rookie chosen. I don’t think any of the other running backs look particularly promising. Not much difference, I think, between Derrick Henry, Paul Perkins, Devontae Booker, Jordan Howard, Kenneth Dixon and Wendell Smallwood. Henry and Howard are both poor in the passing game. If you want to play for more of a pass-catching third-down back, you can add in Kenyan Drake or C.J. Prosise. I wouldn’t be excited about selecting any of those guys with the 7th pick. I think Hunter Henry is the real deal; I have him as a top-10 tight end. I think he could start cranking out productive seasons starting in 2017. So he’s a guy who might be the right fit for you. If you were starting from scratch, I wouldn’t put any of the rookies among the top 20 quarterbacks. Little difference, I think, between the first three – Wentz, Goff and Lynch. The deepest position is wide receiver. I really like Corey Coleman (another guy who’ll be long gone before the 7th pick), then not a ton of difference between Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and Sterling Shepard. If I were setting at No. 7, I would expect to select Henry or one of those three receivers. The rookie wide receivers, I think would go after your choice – Will Fuller, Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd.
Question 3
This morning I was talking to my brother and he said something interesting to me, but I'm not sure if it's true. Basically, I've read from you that touchdowns have little to no correlation year to year, except for Gronk, Dez, or the exceptions to the rule. But, my brother said that players who catch a ton of passes (i.e. Eric Decker) are more likely to catch a ton of passes, therefore their high touchdown numbers aren't flukes and they're consistently undervalued in drafts because "they can't keep up the high touchdown rate". Basically, is there a correlation between per-game catches and touchdown catches? Have we been undervaluing guys like Eric Decker because they tend to "outscore" the average? Thanks.
Calvron Wachter (Adams, TN)
I’m not sure exactly what you’re getting at. I don’t remember putting forth the theory that there’s no correlation with touchdowns year to year. Something I said might have gotten twisted around. But I will agree that Eric Deck has done a good job getting in the end zone. Over the 10 years, 44 wide receivers have caught at least 350 passes, and of that group, only Dez Bryant and Terrell Owens have scored on a higher percentage of their receptions. Decker saw 17 targets inside the 10 last year, which helped his cause. Before locking him in on the draft board, however, let’s see if the Jets re-sign the Bearded Bomber.
WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 400 CATCHES IN LAST 10 YEARS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Player | No | Yards | TD | Pct |
Dez Bryant | 412 | 5,825 | 61 | 14.8% |
Terrell Owens | 362 | 5,399 | 53 | 14.6% |
Eric Decker | 376 | 5,059 | 51 | 13.6% |
Jordy Nelson | 400 | 6,109 | 49 | 12.3% |
Mike Wallace | 414 | 6,307 | 49 | 11.8% |
James Jones | 433 | 5,861 | 51 | 11.8% |
Lance Moore | 389 | 4,816 | 45 | 11.6% |
Calvin Johnson | 731 | 11,619 | 84 | 11.5% |
Greg Jennings | 571 | 8,291 | 64 | 11.2% |
DeSean Jackson | 443 | 7,825 | 49 | 11.1% |
Vincent Jackson | 522 | 8,848 | 57 | 10.9% |
A.J. Green | 415 | 6,171 | 45 | 10.8% |
Miles Austin | 361 | 5,273 | 38 | 10.5% |
Demaryius Thomas | 456 | 6,621 | 47 | 10.3% |
Jeremy Maclin | 429 | 5,848 | 44 | 10.3% |
Marques Colston | 711 | 9,759 | 72 | 10.1% |
Nate Washington | 458 | 6,954 | 45 | 9.8% |
Santonio Holmes | 389 | 6,030 | 37 | 9.5% |
Larry Fitzgerald | 857 | 11,177 | 80 | 9.3% |
Percy Harvin | 351 | 4,020 | 32 | 9.1% |
Brandon Marshall | 882 | 11,273 | 79 | 9.0% |
Stevie Johnson | 381 | 4,764 | 34 | 8.9% |
Hakeem Nicks | 356 | 5,081 | 31 | 8.7% |
Chad Johnson | 387 | 5,503 | 33 | 8.5% |
Julio Jones | 414 | 6,201 | 35 | 8.5% |
Dwayne Bowe | 537 | 7,208 | 44 | 8.2% |
Antonio Brown | 526 | 7,093 | 43 | 8.2% |
Michael Crabtree | 432 | 5,249 | 35 | 8.1% |
Donald Driver | 414 | 5,503 | 33 | 8.0% |
Anquan Boldin | 750 | 9,793 | 59 | 7.9% |
Steve Smith Sr. | 700 | 10,173 | 55 | 7.9% |
Santana Moss | 497 | 6,384 | 39 | 7.8% |
Hines Ward | 426 | 5,053 | 33 | 7.7% |
Eddie Royal | 375 | 3,988 | 29 | 7.7% |
T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 414 | 4,583 | 32 | 7.7% |
Roddy White | 779 | 10,417 | 60 | 7.7% |
Pierre Garcon | 485 | 6,027 | 35 | 7.2% |
Golden Tate | 354 | 4,339 | 25 | 7.1% |
Reggie Wayne | 766 | 10,181 | 54 | 7.0% |
Jerricho Cotchery | 499 | 6,312 | 35 | 7.0% |
Andre Johnson | 845 | 11,294 | 56 | 6.6% |
Derrick Mason | 404 | 4,874 | 26 | 6.4% |
Wes Welker | 874 | 9,490 | 50 | 5.7% |
Davone Bess | 363 | 3,809 | 14 | 3.9% |
Question 4
With the cheat sheet info can you include player injury report with: Player, injury, time of return and maybe the player to get more playing time because off injury.
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
We’ll fire up the weekly Cheat Sheets at the end of July. In those we’ll be sure to mention key injuries and the affected players – specifically, how the replacements will perform while filling in.