Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Identifying the best draft position. Dynasty rankings for rookies. And which receivers tend to catch the most touchdowns.

Question 1

As a follow up to my question two weeks ago, I was wondering how you think draft slot is affected by using a third round reversal (with pick 12 having the 12, 13 and 25 picks) in a PPR league. As you showed in the standard serpentine the first overall draft slot has a clear advantage. However, do you think that holds true for the earlier picks in this format?

John Mortensen (Long Beach, NY)

When you asked this question earlier, the answer was based not on the expected value but the values as if everyone selected the correct player. Big difference there, since rarely does the No. 1 most valuable player actually get picked first overall. So let’s look at it from the more realistic viewpoint of “expected” value – that is, using my stat projections. For this study, I’m looking at only the first 96 players selected (eight for each team). Those final 8-10 rounds, we’ll just leave them out. Using “bang for your buck” projection numbers, I believe the best two draft slots (in a standard draft) are the first two. And the worst are the teams drafting 10-12. After the first eight rounds, according to my calculations, the two teams picking first should be over 60 points ahead of those bottom-3 teams after the first eight rounds.

With the Third Round Reversal system, the playing field is leveled somewhat, giving those lower teams a chance to make up some of that ground. It works nicely in this case. The teams with picks 1-4 still hold the four best spots, and teams picking 10-12 still hold the worst three spots, but everything is shifted. All six of the top teams project to lose points, while all six of the bottom teams should in theory gain. The top 2 teams each lose 8 points of value, while the bottom 2 both gain about 8 points. In my opinion, if you’re drafting players, the 3RR format is the way to go.

VALUES OF DRAFT POSITIONS
PositionSine3RRDifference
Slot 18072-7.8
Slot 26456-8.0
Slot 44740-7.3
Slot 34441-3.5
Slot 53429-5.3
Slot 62623-2.8
Slot 714172.8
Slot 98157.3
Slot 86115.3
Slot 10363.5
Slot 12187.8
Slot 11088.0

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Question 2

Can you provide rookie rankings for a PPR dynasty league? My dynasty league is coming up and I was hoping to get an idea of where to expect guys to go. I have the 7th overall pick out of 12 teams and we draft 3 rounds.

Kyle Wells (Lynnwood, WA)

Ezekiel Elliott will be the first rookie chosen. I don’t think any of the other running backs look particularly promising. Not much difference, I think, between Derrick Henry, Paul Perkins, Devontae Booker, Jordan Howard, Kenneth Dixon and Wendell Smallwood. Henry and Howard are both poor in the passing game. If you want to play for more of a pass-catching third-down back, you can add in Kenyan Drake or C.J. Prosise. I wouldn’t be excited about selecting any of those guys with the 7th pick. I think Hunter Henry is the real deal; I have him as a top-10 tight end. I think he could start cranking out productive seasons starting in 2017. So he’s a guy who might be the right fit for you. If you were starting from scratch, I wouldn’t put any of the rookies among the top 20 quarterbacks. Little difference, I think, between the first three – Wentz, Goff and Lynch. The deepest position is wide receiver. I really like Corey Coleman (another guy who’ll be long gone before the 7th pick), then not a ton of difference between Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and Sterling Shepard. If I were setting at No. 7, I would expect to select Henry or one of those three receivers. The rookie wide receivers, I think would go after your choice – Will Fuller, Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd.

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Question 3

This morning I was talking to my brother and he said something interesting to me, but I'm not sure if it's true. Basically, I've read from you that touchdowns have little to no correlation year to year, except for Gronk, Dez, or the exceptions to the rule. But, my brother said that players who catch a ton of passes (i.e. Eric Decker) are more likely to catch a ton of passes, therefore their high touchdown numbers aren't flukes and they're consistently undervalued in drafts because "they can't keep up the high touchdown rate". Basically, is there a correlation between per-game catches and touchdown catches? Have we been undervaluing guys like Eric Decker because they tend to "outscore" the average? Thanks.

Calvron Wachter (Adams, TN)

I’m not sure exactly what you’re getting at. I don’t remember putting forth the theory that there’s no correlation with touchdowns year to year. Something I said might have gotten twisted around. But I will agree that Eric Deck has done a good job getting in the end zone. Over the 10 years, 44 wide receivers have caught at least 350 passes, and of that group, only Dez Bryant and Terrell Owens have scored on a higher percentage of their receptions. Decker saw 17 targets inside the 10 last year, which helped his cause. Before locking him in on the draft board, however, let’s see if the Jets re-sign the Bearded Bomber.

WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 400 CATCHES IN LAST 10 YEARS
PlayerNoYardsTDPct
Dez Bryant4125,8256114.8%
Terrell Owens3625,3995314.6%
Eric Decker3765,0595113.6%
Jordy Nelson4006,1094912.3%
Mike Wallace4146,3074911.8%
James Jones4335,8615111.8%
Lance Moore3894,8164511.6%
Calvin Johnson73111,6198411.5%
Greg Jennings5718,2916411.2%
DeSean Jackson4437,8254911.1%
Vincent Jackson5228,8485710.9%
A.J. Green4156,1714510.8%
Miles Austin3615,2733810.5%
Demaryius Thomas4566,6214710.3%
Jeremy Maclin4295,8484410.3%
Marques Colston7119,7597210.1%
Nate Washington4586,954459.8%
Santonio Holmes3896,030379.5%
Larry Fitzgerald85711,177809.3%
Percy Harvin3514,020329.1%
Brandon Marshall88211,273799.0%
Stevie Johnson3814,764348.9%
Hakeem Nicks3565,081318.7%
Chad Johnson3875,503338.5%
Julio Jones4146,201358.5%
Dwayne Bowe5377,208448.2%
Antonio Brown5267,093438.2%
Michael Crabtree4325,249358.1%
Donald Driver4145,503338.0%
Anquan Boldin7509,793597.9%
Steve Smith Sr.70010,173557.9%
Santana Moss4976,384397.8%
Hines Ward4265,053337.7%
Eddie Royal3753,988297.7%
T.J. Houshmandzadeh4144,583327.7%
Roddy White77910,417607.7%
Pierre Garcon4856,027357.2%
Golden Tate3544,339257.1%
Reggie Wayne76610,181547.0%
Jerricho Cotchery4996,312357.0%
Andre Johnson84511,294566.6%
Derrick Mason4044,874266.4%
Wes Welker8749,490505.7%
Davone Bess3633,809143.9%

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Question 4

With the cheat sheet info can you include player injury report with: Player, injury, time of return and maybe the player to get more playing time because off injury.

CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)

We’ll fire up the weekly Cheat Sheets at the end of July. In those we’ll be sure to mention key injuries and the affected players – specifically, how the replacements will perform while filling in.

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