Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Who are the breakout running backs for 2016? Is it time to ditch kickers and head-to-head games? And which position is most important in PPR leagues?
Question 1
I love your work. My league is entering its 15th year. In the 14 prior seasons, I have been in our championship game 8 times and have won it 4 times. The only product I have ever used consistently is yours - so thanks! Almost every year, you make a strong call on an out-of-favor or somewhat overlooked RB who ends up significantly outperforming his draft position. I think Doug Martin and Mark Ingram are good examples from last year. Which RBs do you think have a chance to significantly outperform their ADP this year?
Gavin Domm (San Francisco, CA)
I just pulled out the ADP numbers and compared them to where I have the guys ranked right now. I’m using PPR scoring, and I’m using the ADP data off the fantasyfootballcalculator site. They say their figures are built from 1,074 PPR drafts held between July 18-21. Of the running backs in the top 20, I have five ranked at least a half dozen spots higher than their ADP figure. I’ve got Mark Ingram up to 4th (from 10th), Carlos Hyde 11th (from 17th), Matt Jones 12th (from 22nd), Giovani Bernard 15th (from 26th) and Duke Johnson Jr. 16th (from 24th). Flipping it around, I see five running backs that are in the ADP top 20 that I am at least 5 spots lower on. Jamaal Charles is 7th (I have him 24th), Thomas Rawls is 14th (I have him 31st), Doug Martin is 12th (I have him 17th), Dion Lewis is 15th (I rank him 22nd) and DeMarco Murray is 20th (I have him 28th).
Question 2
Have invites gone out for the Fantasy Index Open?
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
Picks will be due in about three weeks – before the start of the first full week of the preseason (not counting the Hall of Fame game). So it’s about time to fire things up. We’ll start promoting that on the website next week, and if you entered in either of the last two years, you will receive an invitation via email.
Question 3
In doing my early research, I'm getting a little tired of hearing the sentiment that kickers need to go. I have heard so much whining from some podcasts about some juggernaut team the got knocked out of the playoffs by a kicker. You got beat! THAT'S FOOTBALL. But this point is usually followed by a total points vs. head-to-head format discussion, with one side saying they like the excitement of trash talk in a H2H format, while total points rewards the "best team". I'm a H2H for life, and was wondering about your thoughts on the subject of kicker importance and the old H2H vs. total points debate.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
I like kickers. Rather than eliminating them, I would prefer to see them made more valuable. In a 12-team league, I’d like to see each team required to start two each week, eliminating the ability of teams to be able to get by just fine by picking up whatever’s available in the last round (as well as using the waiver wire). As far as head-to-head and points, I prefer to have games that are played out. In leagues relying simply on points scored, the end of the season tends to be kind of flat. Usually it’s pretty clear who’s going to win long before December. Those final weeks of the season tend to be similar to the final stages of the Tour de France.
Question 4
I'm in a 14-team PPR league in which we can keep 3 players. We start 2 RBs and 3 receivers (any combination of WR/TEs we want). The players I am considering protecting are RBs E Lacy, D Martin and L Murray and WRs B Cooks and K Allen. I am hoping the preseason will help make my decision easier, but right now I’m leaning towards keeping all 3 of my RBs since they look like they will be the primary backs for their teams and doing so will let me go into the draft pretty much set at RB. I like Cooks and Allen, but I am not sure which of the two I would protect if I could protect just one. Your thoughts?
KEN STEPHENSON (San Clemente, CA)
I see it the exact opposite way. To me, Allen and Cooks are the first two guys I would select, then I would be mulling which one of the backs would get the third spot. In PPR, pass catchers are crucial. Those 100-catch receivers are solid gold. In my eyes, if you keep Allen and Cooks, they’ll probably catch about 210 passes and form the nucleus of your team. Look at this way. You’re in a 14-team league, so let’s assume teams care about the first three players they’d get at each of these positions. That is, if you didn’t select a running back early, you’d be able to get the 43rd running back on your board without much difficulty. In an auction, this running back would likely go for the $1 minimum. In this format, I’m thinking somebody like Bilal Powell will be that 43rd running back. If you don’t select any running backs in the first seven rounds of your draft, you can probably still get three guys similar to Bilal Powell. I’ve got him projected to finish with 132 fantasy points. So your three running backs, relative to Powell, are all “worth” 50-74 points. Eddie Lacy (206 points), Latavius Murray (188) and Doug Martin (182). If you follow the same process at wide receiver, your guys project to be worth 90-104 points. I’ve got the 43rd wide receiver, Mohamed Sanu, worth 173 points, but I’ve got Allen at 277 and Cooks at 263. (Re-reading your question now, I see that you’re starting more receivers and you’re also mixing in tight ends, but the numbers should be very similar. It’s definitely Allen and Cooks).
Question 5
Everyone seems divided on PPR. Either it makes WRs too valuable, or RBs are too valuable without it. What about a half-point for WRs, full PPR for RBs, and a 1.5 points for TEs? Wouldn't something like that equalize the positions a bit better? (I know you can run the numbers!)
ADAM HOLTZ (Rochester, MN)
I think all of those systems work fine. You’re just tweaking the relative values of the positions. If you go to giving 1.5 points per catch for tight ends, you’ll start see players at that position selected in the first round. Maybe three this year, I think. Here are my first two rounds for those three formats.
| FIRST TWO ROUNDS IN DRAFTS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pick | Standard | PPR | Mixed |
| 1.01 | RB Bell | WR Brown | RB Bell |
| 1.02 | RB Gurley | RB Bell | WR Brown |
| 1.03 | WR Brown | WR Beckham | RB Gurley |
| 1.04 | RB D.Johnson | RB Gurley | RB D.Johnson |
| 1.05 | WR Beckham | WR J.Jones | TE Gronkowski |
| 1.06 | RB Peterson | RB D.Johnson | WR Beckham |
| 1.07 | RB Ingram | RB Ingram | TE Olsen |
| 1.08 | RB Elliott | WR Hopkins | RB Ingram |
| 1.09 | WR J.Jones | RB Freeman | RB Freeman |
| 1.10 | RB Miller | WR Allen | WR J.Jones |
| 1.11 | RB Freeman | RB Peterson | TE Reed |
| 1.12 | RB Lacy | WR Bryant | RB Peterson |
| 2.01 | QB Newton | WR Green | RB Miller |
| 2.02 | WR Hopkins | RB Miller | WR Hopkins |
| 2.03 | RB McCoy | WR Cooks | RB Elliott |
| 2.04 | WR Bryant | WR Marshall | WR Bryant |
| 2.05 | TE Gronkowski | WR A.Robinson | WR Green |
| 2.06 | WR Green | RB Elliott | RB McCoy |
| 2.07 | QB Luck | TE Gronkowski | WR A.Robinson |
| 2.08 | RB Hyde | WR Moncrief | WR Allen |
| 2.09 | WR A.Robinson | WR Watkins | WR Cooks |
| 2.10 | QB Brees | WR Hilton | WR Marshall |
| 2.11 | WR Hilton | TE Olsen | RB Lacy |
| 2.12 | WR Watkins | RB McCoy | TE Walker |
Question 6
We started as a 12-team league back in 1994 and 5 years ago we added two additional friends. Our issue is that there are not cheat sheets available for 14 team leagues. I was wondering what the best way to take into effect the additional two teams and if you see in your near future a 14 team cheat sheet?
Eric (USA)
The rankings should be almost identical. The positional rankings are the same. Those are simply a reflection of how many points we expect each player to score. The only changes would be with the “overall” section, where we’re comparing QBs to RBs to WRs. With those, their relative values reflect how productive they are relative to baseline players are their positions. With quarterbacks, for example, we’re assuming in a 12-team league that you’ll be able to get about the 18th quarterback without too much suffering. That is, if all else fails, you’ll be able to get a guy like Matt Ryan, Tony Romo or Joe Flacco. If there are 14 teams, that becomes more difficult. Everyone will want a quarterback, and many teams won’t hesitate to also select a good second. In such a format, rather than assuming you’ll be able to get the 18th quarterback, it’s probably smarter to bank on being able to get the 21st quarterback. There will be increased demand. It works the same at other positions. Right now the baselines are set at about the 40th running back, 18th tight end and 42nd wide receiver. With 14 teams, there will be more demand for players, so all of those numbers need to be moved down some. I’d start with about 46 running backs, 21 tight ends and 48 wide receivers. You can adjust these numbers yourself, customizing our rankings for your league. Go to the home page of our website. Click on “Your Stuff”. Inside that area (over on the right) click on “Scoring Profiles”. In there, click on the league you want to adjust for 14 teams. Once inside the setup area, click on “Auction Values”. That’s where you can adjust the baseline settings for each position.
Question 7
I have a choice of the #1 pick or #7 pick in a 10 team ppr league. Advice?
PETER SCHWIERING (Nichols Hills, OK)
I’ll go with No. 1 and select Antonio Brown. If I wind up at No. 7, I might wind up with a player who might otherwise last until early in the second round.