Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Will a lousy supporting cast doom Todd Gurley? Why is The Index so high on the sputtering Colts? Eli Manning: the league's most overrated quarterback. And how much difference is there between Carlos Hyde and DeMarco Murray?
Question 1
Talk me into using a first round pick on Todd Gurley. The Rams started last year 4-8 (I haven't analyzed the 3-1 finish), and you gave them a "D" grade for off-season moves. Looking at their schedule, I think they could easily start 3-9. Additionally, they're not playing the Browns this year and they don't get the 49ers at home until week 15. What do you see when you look at other awful teams this millennium that had a "special" talent at running back?
Jose Montana (Rosemead, CA)
Ideally with running backs, you want guys who are playing for good teams. As teams win more, they run more and there’s more overall success. I liked the way Justin Eleff phrased it in his article in the magazine. “Teams do not win because they run … they run because they win.” But Gurley is really good, and there have been exceptions over the years. Over the last 20 years, 51 running backs from teams with losing records have finished as top-10 running backs. That’s just over a quarter (51 of 200). Of course, with Gurley, you’re not hoping for a top-10 back. You’re hoping for a top-5 guy. Of the last 100 top-5 running backs, only 20 have come from teams with losing records. And only three have come from teams that won fewer than five games (I’ve got those guys flagged).
| TOP-5 BACKS FROM LOSING TEAMS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | Record |
| 2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1,616 | 604 | 2,220 | 18 | (6-10) |
| 2001 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 1,555 | 614 | 2,169 | 10 | (6-10) |
| 2004 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 1,518 | 578 | 2,096 | 15 | (6-10) |
| 2010 | Peyton Hillis, Clev. | 1,177 | 477 | 1,654 | 13 | (5-11) |
| 2009 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,391 | 374 | 1,765 | 16 | (7-9) |
| 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1,454 | 472 | 1,926 | 12 | (7-9) |
| 2010 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1,298 | 341 | 1,639 | 13 | (6-10) |
| 2015 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1,402 | 271 | 1,673 | 7 | (6-10) |
| 2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,606 | 374 | 1,980 | 11 | (5-11) |
| 2003 | • LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,645 | 725 | 2,370 | 17 | (4-12) |
| 1998 | • Marshall Faulk, Ind. | 1,319 | 908 | 2,227 | 10 | (3-13) |
| 2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 1,695 | 485 | 2,180 | 9 | (7-9) |
| 2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1,038 | 808 | 1,846 | 10 | (5-11) |
| 2004 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1,188 | 588 | 1,776 | 14 | (7-9) |
| 2002 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 1,175 | 460 | 1,635 | 18 | (7-9) |
| 2011 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1,204 | 212 | 1,416 | 13 | (7-9) |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1,106 | 188 | 1,294 | 10 | (7-9) |
| 2010 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 1,364 | 245 | 1,609 | 12 | (6-10) |
| 1996 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 1,553 | 147 | 1,700 | 11 | (5-11) |
| 1997 | • Napoleon Kaufman, Oak. | 1,294 | 403 | 1,697 | 8 | (4-12) |
Of the last 100 running backs who ranked outside the top 5 but still made the top 10, 31 came from teams with losing records. Only seven, however, from teams that won fewer than five games. If the Rams finish 3-13 or 4-12, Gurley almost certainly won’t be a top-5 back.
| OTHER TOP-10 BACKS FROM LOSING TEAMS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | Record |
| 2009 | Thomas Jones, Chi. | 1,402 | 58 | 1,460 | 14 | (7-9) |
| 2000 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 1,399 | 240 | 1,639 | 14 | (7-9) |
| 2001 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 1,315 | 228 | 1,543 | 13 | (6-10) |
| 2015 | Lamar Miller, Mia. | 872 | 397 | 1,269 | 10 | (6-10) |
| 2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1,266 | 171 | 1,437 | 11 | (5-10-1) |
| 2009 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 1,121 | 264 | 1,385 | 13 | (7-9) |
| 2012 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 1,244 | 459 | 1,703 | 8 | (6-10) |
| 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,236 | 367 | 1,603 | 10 | (5-11) |
| 2005 | • LaMont Jordan, Oak. | 1,025 | 563 | 1,588 | 11 | (4-12) |
| 1999 | • Charlie Garner, S.F. | 1,229 | 535 | 1,764 | 6 | (4-12) |
| 1997 | • Marshall Faulk, Ind. | 1,054 | 471 | 1,525 | 8 | (3-13) |
| 1997 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 1,129 | 259 | 1,388 | 10 | (7-9) |
| 2007 | Willis McGahee, Balt. | 1,207 | 231 | 1,438 | 8 | (5-11) |
| 2003 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 1,572 | 370 | 1,942 | 7 | (5-11) |
| 2012 | • Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1,509 | 236 | 1,745 | 6 | (2-14) |
| 2013 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 1,077 | 345 | 1,422 | 10 | (7-9) |
| 1997 | Ricky Watters, Phil. | 1,110 | 440 | 1,550 | 7 | (6.5-9.5) |
| 2015 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 898 | 389 | 1,287 | 7 | (6-10) |
| 2000 | Ricky Watters, Sea. | 1,242 | 613 | 1,855 | 9 | (6-10) |
| 2008 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 824 | 565 | 1,389 | 14 | (5-11) |
| 2007 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 1,102 | 436 | 1,538 | 6 | (5-11) |
| 2011 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 970 | 139 | 1,109 | 13 | (3-13) |
| 1997 | Jamal Anderson, Atl. | 1,002 | 284 | 1,286 | 10 | (7-9) |
| 2013 | Reggie Bush, Det. | 1,006 | 506 | 1,512 | 7 | (7-9) |
| 2015 | Latavius Murray, Oak. | 1,066 | 232 | 1,298 | 6 | (7-9) |
| 2000 | Charlie Garner, S.F. | 1,142 | 647 | 1,789 | 10 | (6-10) |
| 2012 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 950 | 367 | 1,317 | 12 | (5-11) |
| 1998 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 1,491 | 289 | 1,780 | 4 | (5-11) |
| 1999 | Duce Staley, Phil. | 1,273 | 294 | 1,567 | 6 | (5-11) |
| 1996 | • Jamal Anderson, Atl. | 1,055 | 473 | 1,528 | 6 | (3-13) |
| 2009 | • Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,416 | 322 | 1,738 | 4 | (1-15) |
Question 2
Based on your latest rankings, you're very bullish on Andrew Luck and the rest of the Colts players. It looks like you forecast them to be a top-3 offense. Coming out of the 2014 season, that may have seemed reasonable but not after their 2015 campaign (with essentially the same personnel). Obviously, Luck has to be healthy and play well right out of the gate, but what else makes you think the Colts will be so high-powered?
Andrew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
I’ve got them scoring 44 touchdowns, which is just outside the top 6. There is no offense right now, by the way, that I love. I have the Saints, Packers, Cardinals and Panthers all around 48 touchdowns. If there were a team that I was confident was really going to rip it up, I would have them at 50-plus. Usually I have an offense (or two) at 50-52 touchdowns, but I don’t see that group yet. With the Colts, they scored 51 touchdowns (offensive touchdowns) two years ago, and slipped to 32 touchdowns last year, with all the problems. I think 44 seems about right. I’m not crazy about the running game. They don’t have a great offensive line, but it should be on the upswing. It will be a lot better at center. That was a disaster area last year, but they selected Ryan Kelly in the first round. Only seven centers have been selected with first-round picks in the last 10 years, and five of them proved to be great selections who really should have been chosen much earlier – Travis Frederick, Nick Mangold, Alex Mack and the Pouncey twins. I’m not crazy about Frank Gore. He’s getting awfully old. But if the ground game is struggling, that might help Luck – will force him to be involved in more of the scores. I like the receiving corps. T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief look like a very nice duo, and Phillip Dorsett should be a good and explosive No. 3.
Question 3
Some web sites have Eli Manning high on the projected stats lists. Is he expected to have a better year this year and why? He's never really been that valuable in my pools.
Chris Williams (Elmira, ON)
He’s an odd guy. On the one hand, he’s a former No. 1 pick who’s had a successful career. He’s gone over 10 years without missing a start and has won a couple of Super Bowls – coming up with the clutch throws against favored New England teams. But he hasn’t been as good for fantasy purposes. He doesn’t run much at all, which works against him. With quarterbacks, I like to look at them in terms of production per game. That way, you get out of guys falling dramatically because they happened to sit out the last game or miss a couple of starts. In fantasy leagues, you generally have somebody else to plug in when that happens. Anyway, hard to believe, but Manning in his entire career has never finished in the top 5 among quarterbacks in total touchdowns per game. He’s at least been on the upswing recently because Ben McAdoo has installed more of a passing offense. So Manning (per game) has finished 11th and 8th among quarterbacks the last two seasons (that’s per-game production using standard scoring). Nothing wrong with the targets. Odell Beckham Jr. is about as good as anyone, and they’ve got other decent pieces. Will Tye is coming on, Shane Vereen is a good third-down back, Sterling Shepard will help, reducing any real need for Victor Cruz to get back to being what he used to be. I don’t think Manning is a super elite quarterback. He’s never been particularly accurate. He’s completed only 63 percent over the last two years, which is below average in today’s game. In McAdoo’s offense, you would think Manning would be more of a 67-percent passer, but he’s not. But I’m thinking he’ll be a top-10 quarterback. Unlikely, though, to push up into the top 5.
Question 4
I wanted to ask you about the huge gap between Carlos Hyde and DeMarco Murray in your rankings, because I have a hard time finding a lot to separate the two. Both are in offenses that should run the ball a great deal. Both are in their prime. Both have running QBs. Both are on teams that will almost certainly be below .500. Both are three-down backs who look to get the majority of carries (no dreaded “C” after either name in your rankings). Both have suspect offensive lines. Both have worrisome injury histories. Both are playing for new coaches and are unproven in their new system. In fact, the only clear differentiator I can find is their track record – Murray has a rushing title on his resume, while Hyde has that one crazy game against Minnesota and not much else. Yet there’s Hyde as your #11 back while Murray is down at 30. Could you please expand on how you view these two so very, very differently? (I know you like the extra plays you expect from a Chip Kelly team, but that won’t turn everyone into a great fantasy back – just look at, well, DeMarco Murray.) Appreciate your thoughts.
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
I like what Chip Kelly did in Philadelphia. His three teams there ranked 1st, 9th and 14th in rushing. Finishing 14th last year, I thought, was pretty impressive, consider they had offensive line issues and an immobile quarterback. The zone-read look is an important element in that offense, and they had to go without it last year. Blaine Gabbert isn’t a nifty runner, but he’s mobile enough that I think they can get that element back in the offense. With the Titans, on the other hand, they’ve been a bottom-10 in rushing the last two years. They’ve averaged 92 rushing yards in their last 32 games, with 16 rushing touchdowns. The Eagles in the same time peiord have averaged 29 more yards yards per game, with almost twice as many rushing touchdowns. Mike Mularkey has had some success building running games in the past. Of his last 13 offenses, all but four have had a 1,000-yard rushers. But it’s been a while since he’s done it. He also doesn’t use his running backs much in the passing game. Of the last 11 running backs to lead his offenses in rushing, all but one caught fewer than 30 passes. I am confident Hyde will catch more passes than Murray. I also expect he’ll be spelled less often. Tennessee should work in the big kid out of Alabama, and Dexter McCluster might play on some passing downs. The 49ers don’t have ancillary backs like those.
| MIKE MULARKEY'S LEADING RUSHERS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
| 2001 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 1,072 | 48 | 1,120 | 4 |
| 2002 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 666 | 57 | 723 | 9 |
| 2003 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 811 | 86 | 897 | 7 |
| 2004 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 1,128 | 169 | 1,297 | 13 |
| 2005 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 1,247 | 178 | 1,425 | 5 |
| 2006 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 1,008 | 276 | 1,284 | 5 |
| 2008 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 1,699 | 41 | 1,740 | 17 |
| 2009 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 871 | 35 | 906 | 10 |
| 2010 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 1,371 | 85 | 1,456 | 12 |
| 2011 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 1,340 | 168 | 1,508 | 11 |
| 2012 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 414 | 86 | 500 | 2 |
Question 5
Two questions on WRs. First one is Travis Benjamin if he went for nearly a 1000 yards in Cleveland don't it seem like he could go for that or better with Rivers throwing him the ball? Last year you seemed pretty sour on Kevin White. He didn't run complicated routes in college and was very raw. What has changed your mind on a guy who hasn't played a down yet. He seems like more of a flier pick than anything you want to count on as a starter.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
Benjamin, I believe, will be used mostly as a deep threat. He’s replacing Malcom Floyd. They’ve got Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, Antonio Gates and Stevie Johnson. Tough for Benjamin to catch a ton of balls, I think. With White, he’s been around for a year. That might help. And I don’t think they have much else. It’s him and Alshon Jeffery, and they’ve lost two of the big pieces of the passing game (Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte).
Question 6
You have pointed out often that a WR changing teams often struggles in the first year -- he needs time to build the rapport with the QB. In Houston, there is excitement over a new RB. And over a new QB. Does having two new key position players put a damper on some of the enthusiasm? Will it take longer for them and the offense to gel, trying to integrate both those key components at once? Thank you as always for the mailbags!
Moishe Steigmann (Glendale, WI)
Sounds logical to me. I discussed him in an earlier question, but DeAndre Hopkins comes to mind as a wide receiver who might be overvalued. He’s getting selected as a top-5 wide receiver, but easy to see him dropping out of the top 10.
Question 7
Had a couple of dynasty league questions. Everyone is talking about Jimmy Garoppolo as just a four game fill-in, but how do you see his long-term outlook? He's in a contract year after learning from one of the best for the past several years and has looked decent in limited action. Do you see him as a future starter and if so, where do you see his ceiling? Also, am I crazy to be looking to trade Jamaal Charles in my dynasty league? After the emergence of West and Ware, coupled with his injury, I am thinking it might be wise to see what I can get for him before his production falls to far off. In a fairly straight up trade, what kind of back do you think I could get for him when considering age and production?
Zach Nizolek (Kansas City, MO)
We’ll all know a lot more about Garoppolo in a few weeks. In the preseason last year, he seemed to take a lot more big shots downfield. With Tom Brady, he has the know-how and experience to peck his way downfield, getting the ball out of his hands quickly. With Garoppolo, there’s more mobility, and I saw an increased number of deeper, downfield passes. He’s entering his third year, so I expect the Patriots will make a decision on him next spring. If he plays well, they might have the opportunity to trade him. They drafted Jacoby Brissett, recall, in the third round, so they have some flexibility at that position. As for Charles, he’s nearing the end of the road. Makes sense to stick him on the trading block and see if somebody is willing to give up something of value.
Question 8
Long-time subscriber here. I have a concern regarding Kyle Shanahan. I know when he has a legitimate No. 1 WR he targets that guy like a madman (Andre Johnson and Julio Jones) and even when he doesn't have that level of talent his No. 1 he still utilizes that guy heavily (Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney and Pierre Garcon). So here is my question: Where are the TDs? Johnson had 8 & 9, Julio had 9, Moss had 6, Gaffney had 5, Garcon had 5. My theory is that Shanahan likes to use his No. 1 WR more and more as a decoy the closer they get to the end zone. It just seems to me that when a No. 1 WR gets used so heavily, as we can expect from Julio this year, he should be scoring double-digit TDs.
Gregory Oswell (Cardiff By The Sea, CA)
Good observation, and I agree. Shanahan receivers tend to be better in terms of catches and yards than for touchdowns. With that in mind, when looking at the Big Three receivers, my leaning is to select Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. before Julio Jones.
Question 9
The opening report was missing Washington. Whenever you can, please send out your thoughts. Thanks.
phillip podret (Metairie, LA)
The product last week was just a mini update. I think there were notes on only about a third of the teams. Washington didn’t have any notable changes (beyond what was in the magazine), so it wasn’t one of the ones that was chosen. In each of the remaining August newsletters (and the first one goes out on Monday) there will be a section on each of the 32 teams.
Question 10
I'm in a league that awards 1 point for every 10 return yards. Kickoff and punt returns. Not happy with the format, but I'd like to take advantage of it. Is there any way you could include returners in your depth chart info on the updates? Or let me know players to target (are Landry and Lockett returning kicks again this year)? I know it's early, so we may not know who will be returning kicks, but this particular draft is before the third pre-season game. Ugh.
Jeff Noordhoff (Indialantic, FL)
Teams last year averaged about 800 yards on kickoff returns. They averaged about 600 yards on punt returns. This is the kind of production we’re looking at. There’s a new rule going in on kickoffs (with touchbacks being placed at the 25) but I’m not sure how much of an impact that will have. Some feel that kickers will go with shorter, higher kickoffs, forcing teams to return them. We’ll need to re-visit that later. With kickoff returns, there were 32 players with at least 300 yards last year, and six were players who should see plenty of playing time in the field in this upcoming season: Ameer Abdullah, Tyler Lockett, Benny Cunningham, Bruce Ellington, David Johnson and Jarvis Landry. Similarly with punt returns, 20 guys had at least 200 yards last year, and nine have some chance to get on the field plenty in this upcoming season: Darren Sproles, Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry, Travis Benjamin, Rashad Greene, Ted Ginn Jr., Danny Amendola, Tavon Austin and Antonio Brown. Two players, note, show up on both lists: Lockett and Landry. Some of these guys, of course, will fall away. I think David Johnson has returned his last kickoff, and I doubt Abdullah or Landry will return kickoffs. To me, the most compelling guys seem to be Lockett, Landry, Benjamin, Austin and Brown. I’ll check back on kick returns after I see some of the practice games.
Question 11
I am in a 10 team, 2-QB keeper league. We are allowed to keep any player who was drafted in rounds 9 thru 12. To be a keeper, they must remain on your roster continuously all year. The first person you keep, takes up your 12th round pick. The second keeper takes up your 11th round pick, etc. I have Carlos Hyde and Ryan Mathews available to keep. My instinct is to keep both, considering that Hyde would absolutely get picked prior to round 9, and Mathews is very likely to get picked somewhere between rounds 7 and 8. I am high on Mathews mainly because so many others have written him off, but he was simply better than DeMarco Murray in every facet of the game last year. Only Chip Kelly's incredible stubbornness and ego as a wannabe GM caused him to keep Murray in the lineup even after every fan could clearly see that Mathews should tote the rock when healthy. Should I keep these guys, or take a chance on some new blood?
Andrew Napoli (Springfield, VA)
You definitely keep Hyde. He might be a top-10 running back. Talented guy, and Chip Kelly has a way of putting together good running games. If you starting from scratch, I expect Mathews would be chosen about 25 backs in, so it also makes sense to lock him up right now with your 11th-round choice.
Question 12
In a 10-team keeper league I have the No. 1 pick. I have saved Julio Jones and Alshon Jeffery. Based off the custom scoring system on your site with who's available it's either Ezekiel Elliott or DeAndre Hopkins. Assuming both are healthy and Elliott doesn't face any legal or NFL discipline from this domestic violence report who should I draft?
JASON BUTTERFIELD (Schofield, WI)
It’s Elliott, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. He’s got a lot more upside potential. He’s got the great offensive line in front of him, and I think they’re going to run the heck out of it, giving him a really good chance of being a top-5 running back. (Maybe something new will come out, but it doesn’t like the domestic violence report will amount to anything). With Hopkins, he’s a really good player, but that’s a run-oriented system. Bill O’Brien likes to run the ball. Hopkins put up his big numbers last year in the first half of the season, when they got away from the running game. He caught 21 fewer passes in the second half of the season.
Question 13
I've been playing around with the auction values, but I haven't been able to figure out how to set it up for our league. Our league uses a salary cap, but it is not an auction. The values are set usually the Friday before our draft. This is a shallow league (8 team, 14 player roster) with very rigid roster requirements. We have to draft 2 each (QB, TE, K, and DST) and 3 each (RB and WR). The number of players chosen at each position is set in stone, but answering the question about how many are worth more than the minimum is a bit trickier for our league. Several of the owners spend the maximum allowed on their starting QB, RBs, WRs, and TE, leaving just enough to fill out the roster with $1 players. This leaves several players who are worth more than the minimum, but they don't get drafted because of what their set value is. There have been times when we've actually had top 5-10 players go undrafted because of it. Do you have any suggestions on how those questions should be answered to get an accurate list for what the player values should be?
Roy Sherman (Columbia, TN)
Your preparations, I think, should involve two numbers for each player. One is the player’s assigned salary – whatever the man behind the curtain puts on him the Friday before the draft. The other is his actual value, as determined by Roy Sherman. Then you can compare those figures to drive your decisions. You might, for example, think Cam Newton is the best quarterback, but if his salary is $33 and you think he’s only worth $24, you wouldn’t select him. You might instead choose Andrew Luck, who’s maybe only “worth” $22 in your opinion but is saddled with a $19 salary. That sounds simple enough. Your job is to create the values. At the website, go to the custom scoring area (“scoring profiles” under “Your Stuff”). There’s a question-answer section in there, and you need to declare that 16 QB, 16 TE, 16 K and 16 Def will be chosen, along with 24 RB and 24 WR. Then, at each position, you need to look at the bottom of the list and compare those players to the guys who won’t even be chosen. And in this small league, you need to keep in mind there will be many really good players who don’t get chosen at all. At quarterback, for example, you easily could have a top 16 that doesn’t include Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Tyrod Taylor or Joe Flacco. Logically, then, it doesn’t make any sense to pay more than the minimum for the bottom 4 or so quarterbacks when there’s all this other talent available. Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford are promising looking guys, but why pay much of anything for them when you’ll have the ability in late September, if necessary, to switch to Mariota or Romo. And the same logic applies to all the other positions. So I think I’d go with about 75 percent as the cutoff. I would guess that about 12 quarterbacks and tight ends are worth more than the minimum, and about 18 running backs and wide receivers. Not sure how it plays out with the less-coveted positions (PK, Def) but I’ll start by assuming about 12 at those spots as well. Plug in those numbers, and you should then have the two numbers you’ll need at each position. And I suppose there will be some players in there who you’ll want to avoid because of the way they’re slotted by your financial czar. I would guess, for example, that out-of-whack prices might be assigned to players like Jordy Nelson and Jamaal Charles, meaning those players shouldn’t even be chosen at all. Would be more effective to select a player outside the top 24 with a more favorable contract situation.
Question 14
Long-time subscriber and never draft without the Index. I am in a 12-team PPR, Semi-Keeper league where we can keep up to 3 players. I am keeping Lamar Miller, Tyler Lockett and Kelvin Benjamin (in the 11th Round specifically.) I just traded 1(9), 3(33) and Kelvin Benjamin for 1(1) and 5(60). Most top-flight wides are being kept; Julio, Beckham, Hopkins, Jordy, T.Y., Allen Robinson. With the first pick, I have to take Antonio Brown. But did I give up too much in terms of production from what-could-have-been the 9th pick, 33rd pick and Kelvin Benjamin?
Anthony Cillis (Lagrangeville, NY)
Seems like a pretty fair trade to me. Eye-balling it, I’m not sure which side I prefer. Antonio Brown is a heck of a player, particularly in PPR, and you’re getting him for not only 2016, I’m guessing, but also the next year. There’s definitely considerable value there. On the flip side, the 9th slot isn’t chopped liver, and the other team also gets to move up from 5.12 to 3.09. And Kelvin Benjamin is probably a guy who would have gone in the sixth or seventh round. We’ll see.