Like I've mentioned several times, I think it's a bit early to do too much player research. But with drafts and auctions coming up, we can't help but think about maximizing the selections we'll have. That includes getting extra value out of your picks and maybe a little luck as some players fall to you. And with some major players on suspension, there looks to be golden opportunities to catch a break.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but forget it. There probably won't be any major discounts on suspended players.
On paper it looks like a no-brainer: Le'Veon Bell and Tom Brady are great players who have already proven their fantasy value. They're entrenched starters and they're not hurt. We know they're probably going to miss four games (assuming Bell's appeal is unsuccessful), but they'll be back and ready to go in week 5. Assuming your league skips week 17, that's 25 percent of available starts gone. If you could get by with your depth at the beginning of the season, you could go on a tear with these guys. And a 25 percent discount would make them more available to you than if they were playing a full slate.
So Bell and/or Brady fall to you, or become more affordable with your auction dollars. They're not as valuable as they were before, so you can get them later or cheaper. You see it on updated cheat sheets and analysis. They drop in value, and you scoop them up and win big later in the year.
Sounds logical, right? Yeah, and that's how it would play out if logic had much to do with your league. But, as you probably know, it doesn't. Your league has the homer, the guys who slam more drinks than your draft has rounds, and the owner who doesn't pay all that much attention to updated news. You won't be competing against people who are looking at the situation objectively. If you can get past the drunks, the Pittsburgh and New England fans and the owners who don't even know they're on suspension, you'll run right into owners like you who are also looking for a deal.
How many times did you have a great plan for your draft, only to have an owner take your player right ahead of you? How many times has a name in an online queue disappeared onto someone else's team? It's happened to you, it's happened to me and it's happened to every owner in your league. In an auction setting, owners get outbid and regret it all season long. Nobody forgets it and nobody wants it to happen this year. It's that fear -- not facts, not logic and not true value -- that will erode any discount you might have expected for those players. I think if you want them to be part of your team, you'll have to take them pretty close to where you would have if they weren't suspended.
If a handful of owners have the same idea, they'll all be pressured to pull the trigger earlier. If you want to beat the homer, you'll have to take a local team's player a little earlier. And if you want the "bargain" ahead of other shoppers, you'll have to give up a lot of the savings. Maybe all of it.
Again, I'm not saying that's how it should go. I think they should be discounted. But when you're sitting there, thinking about Bell's workhorse status or the Patriots' habit of taking out grievances on hapless opponents, a promising strategy becomes a necessity in your mind. And suddenly, a good deal becomes a bad one.
The same goes for Karlos Williams, by the way. A guy with potential on your bench at a discount sounds great, but he'll likely end up being taken about the same place as before. Somebody will find a spot for him over a lesser name, or someone who didn't score as much last year.
My advice? Don't get too enamored with a strategy that includes getting any of those guys later or cheaper. Definitely don't go into your draft or auction targeting them with an assumed discount. Don't pin your hopes on anyone "falling" to you. If something great happens, it happens. But don't hope for it, plan on it or expect it.
Finally, don't get so caught up in their value that you're the owner who takes them too early. Not only did you forfeit a discount, but you have to rely on other players for four games. And now you have a target on your back, because DeAngelo Williams means more to you than anyone else. You going to reach for him, too?
I haven't finalized what strategy I'll use this year, but I have a pretty good idea which ones I'll avoid. And I'm not going to be disappointed by losing out on a specific player, or sabotage my team by not discounting a lengthy absence. If I make a mistake, I won't make that one. And I hope you don't, either.
Do you think you'll be able to get a suspended player at a discount? Is their potential so great that you'd take them without one? Share your thoughts below.