Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Ranking the backup running backs. Contract-year players. Dynasty league rankings. And the perfect fantasy football league.

Question 1

Can you provide a list of your "back up/handcuff" running back rankings. You clearly place more value on guys who will be the clear cut lead back, with little competition (Charles Sims, DeAngelo Williams, Jerick McKinnon), if an injury occurs to the starter. I tend to fill my bench with these type of players as well. Two guys who I have interest in, I am a little confused with their 16-game projection; Spencer Ware and Bilal Powell. Both still face competition in the event of an injury to the starter (Charcandrick West & Knile Davis) and (Khiry Robinson), yet Ware is projected for 185 points vs Powell's projection of 101 points in a standard scoring league based on 16 games. Great stuff as always.

William D'allesandro (Huntington, NY)

There’s a certain amount of behind-the-curtains work that occurs with player ratings, and more so with backups than other positions. Most notably, if there is a player who could be really special if there’s an injury, benching, arrest or suspension, I will too him a few extra stats that you can’t see to move him up the board. McKinnon, for example. He shouldn’t play too much, but I would much rather have him than a lesser back who’s going to punch out a bunch of mediocre games. Theo Riddick or Bilal Powell, for example, in a standard format. I’m more interested in players who could have a burst of top-10 games during the season. We’re looking at how likely a player is to get on the field, and balancing that against how good he’ll be if he winds up starting some games. Ranking the handcuffs 1 thru 32, I think they look something like this …

TEAM-BY-TEAM HANDCUFF TAILBACKS
RkTeamPlayer
1CLEDuke Johnson Jr. (1-2 punch)
2CINGiovani Bernard (1-2 punch)
3TBCharles Sims (1-2 punch)
4MIAJay Ajayi (might start)
5SDDanny Woodhead (1-2 punch)
6PITDeAngelo Williams
7GBJames Starks
8KCSpencer Ware (check West/Davis)
9NEDion Lewis (committtee)
10ATLTevin Coleman
11JACT.J. Yeldon (1-2 punch)
12TENDerrick Henry
13MINJerick McKinnon
14BALTerrance West (unsettled backfield)
15NYJBilal Powell (3rd downs only?)
16PHIWendell Smallwood (Sproles: 3rd downs)
17DENDevontae Booker (or Hillman)
18NOTim Hightower
19CHIJordan Howard (or Carey)
20ARIChris Johnson (check Ellington)
21NYGPaul Perkins (Vereen: 3rd downs)
22DALDarren McFadden (or Morris)
23DETStevan Ridley (messy backfield)
24OAKDeAndre Washington
25BUFKarlos Williams (suspended)
26HOUAlfred Blue (Ervin: 3rd downs?)
27INDJosh Ferguson (or Turbin)
28WASKeith Marshall (Thompson: 3rd downs)
29CARCameron Artis-Payne
30SEAAlex Collins (or Michael)
31SFShaun Draughn (maybe)
32LAnone (Cunningham: 3rd downs)

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Question 2

Two guys in our league use Fantasy Index, and we have 8 championships between us, so well done you! My question is about fantasy relevant players in a contract year. Especially RBs who just seem to run with more tenacity when they are trying to maximize the next big pay day. I'm wondering if you have some stats that compare guys in contract years, vs. the year after they get paid. And then of course I would like a list of players in contract years so I can move them up a little on my board if the numbers reflect a correlation!

Matthew Dolan (Pleasant Hill, CA)

It’s a good question. Right now I don’t have enough time to give this topic the hour or two it deserves, pulling up all the various numbers. I’ve got a bunch of other letters, and I’ve got games that need to be watched. Perhaps another day. But my feeling (with the numbers to back it up) is that the contract year deal is largely overrated. More often than not, it has little impact, and those many cases are ignored. A couple of guys have good years in the final years of their contracts, and then people point to those as evidence that people in contract years put up big numbers. Anyway, here’s the list of possibilities this year. I’m listing only the key positions, and I’m listing only players that I think have some measurable chance of being selected in your fantasy league in 2016 or 2017. Wide receivers: Alshon Jeffery, Brandon LaFell, Charles Johnson (RFA), DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Josh Gordon (RFA), Kamar Aiken, Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Pierre Garcon, Ted Ginn Jr., Terrance Williams, Vincent Jackson. Tight ends: Jared Cook, Jordan Cameron, Martellus Bennett, Vernon Davis, Will Tye (ERFA). Running backs: Arian Foster, Benny Cunningham, Chris Johnson, Chris Thompson (RFA), Danny Woodhead, Darren McFadden, DeAngelo Williams, Donald Brown, Eddie Lacy, Isaiah Crowell (RFA), Latavius Murray, LeGarrette Blount, LeVeon Bell, Mike Gillislee (RFA), Ronnie Hillman, Stevan Ridley, Terrance West (RFA), Theo Riddick. Quarterbacks: Blaine Gabbert, Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor.

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Question 3

Have you considered updating your dynasty ranks when you release your cheat sheets?

Zach Nizolek (Kansas City, MO)

I put revised rankings for QB, RB, WR and TE in the product yesterday. The dynasty rankings are a completely different animal. With the 2016-only rankings, I’ve got extensive stat projections for each player, and the player rankings are automated. That is, maybe I move a running back down from 70 yards per game down to 64, and it causes him to fall 10 spots at his position. With the dynasty rankings, it’s just a big list. I have to go up and down it over and over, moving a guy a few spots here and there if my gut tells me I like him a little better than that’s ahead of him or behind him. There are no numbers involved. We’re grinding through a ton of information on Fri-Sat-Sun, so I don’t have time to look at the dynasty stuff much on the weekend. But I will try to hit those lists on most Tuesdays and Wednesdays this month, putting the updated dynasty rankings in the Thursday version of the product.

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Question 4

In our 12-team league, at least two other owners utilize your rankings. Come Draft Day, I find myself reaching for the players you value much more than their ADP, because I know if I don't, my fellow Fantasy Index-juicers will. I want those guys, but at the bargain price (a round or two later) your expert information affords me. I can't think of a "solution". I'm leaning to what feels like the safest route for me, which is to adhere closely to your rankings, draft according to those, and not try to get even further ahead by waiting a round. That way, I may have "reached", but I'll have the player you thought was the best one available at that time. Any thoughts? No doubt they will also read this question, so you'll be helping the three of us with your answer. Thanks. I recognize how much hard work you expend during the pre-season, and appreciate it. Have fun!

Steven Schipper (Winnipeg, MB)

Makes sense, I think, to consider the half-dozen guys that meet this description. Donte Moncrief, Isaiah Crowell and Carlos Hyde, perhaps. I’m not sure who the other two to four players might be. Then carefully research each guy to confirm that you’re on board with where I’ve got them ranked. The guys that we agree on, you go ahead and take them where I’ve got them slotted. If there are a couple where you don’t quite agree with the logic, then try for more of a bargain with those guys (being more willing to potentially lose them to someone else).

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Question 5

Curious to know your preferred league setup and possibly if there is any benefit to setting up your league in any one specific way. How many teams do you prefer? What type of roster makeup ? Flex? PPR? Standard scoring?

Chris Tkachuk (Merchantville, NJ)

All of the formats work. They all have their strengths and weaknesses. My original league is still my favorite, and it’s a TD-only format. I tend to like 12 teams, I think, because it looks like the NFL we grew up with the ‘70s and ‘80s. If you have three divisions of four teams each, it fits together nicely, playing teams inside the division twice, everyone else once, and saving the last two weeks for the playoffs. But for allocating players, I think 10 teams actually works better. With 10, then you can require teams to start 2 QB, 2 TE, 2 K and 2 Defenses each week, making the mix of supply and demand better. I haven’t actually field-tested that, but I think it would work well. Standard scoring, with teams required to each week to start 2 at each position, plus a third at wide receiver, plus one flex player (RB-WR-TE). With that kind of mix (I think) we’d see an appropriate mix of QB-WR-RB in the early rounds.

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Question 6

You have Brandon Marshall rated as a low first or high second round guy. I can keep him by giving up my mid second round pick. A little value but not much. Worth it if he finishes top 5. My only other decent options are Jay Ajayi for a 5th round pick or Ryan Mathews RB for an 8th round pick. Maybe Mathews? I have a few weeks to decide and if someone lights it up that will make things easier. What are your thoughts? As always, you're the best.

Jeff Rose (Weston, FL)

They’re all candidates, but let’s see what they do in the preseason games. Ajayi and Mathews in particularly have potential to look a whole lot better with a few productive carries in the preseason. Both Miami and Philadelphia, I believe, will have top-10 offensive lines. (Even with Lane Johnson probably suspended for 10 games, I think the Eagles have a good line.) Doug Pederson was the offensive coordinator in Kansas City last year, and I liked the way they used Jamaal Charles. Adam Gase was the OC in Chicago, and that team’s running backs tied for No. 1 in rushing attempts.

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Question 7

What QB is a good replacement for the first four games if you have Tom Brady?

dave Roebuck (Forty Fort, PA)

There’s lot of depth at quarterback. In a typical 12-team league, you could easily pair with Brady any number of very acceptable options – Ryan, Mariota, Dalton, Romo, Winston, Carr, for example, should all come pretty cheaply. In a large league maybe you think about Jimmy Garoppolo, but let’s see what he looks like in some of the exhibitions.

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Question 8

Unfortunately, due to my other knucklehead league mates schedules, we will have our redraft for this season this coming Saturday. First weekend of preseason. I realize that you don't have a crystal ball when it comes to injuries over the next four weeks. My question is this: Do you have any suggestions/advice for drafting way earlier than you should? Thanks, as always.

Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)

It’s a level playing field, at least, because the rules are the same for everyone. Keep in mind that you’ll be able to make roster moves later. That is, if you were to use late-round picks on Terrance West and Javorius Allen, there’s a good chance you’ll have a decent depth back in early September (when perhaps you’d release the other guy in a waiver move).

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Question 9

Our league has some weird rules. If I draft Tom Brady, I draft the New England QB, not just Brady. So, that changes what Brady is worth, no? Same with Roethlisberger. I assume you factored in the injury risk. But if he goes down, I get whomever fills in for him. When I use the custom rankings, it doesn't give me a way to adjust for this. Can you help?

Mojo Smith (Avon Park, FL)

There are different ways to look at team. In any league with 8 or 10 teams, there are definitely enough quarterbacks that you can select Brady knowing you’ll be fine for those first four weeks – there are plenty of quarterbacks to go around. For a 12-team league, I think you’ll still be OK, given the depth at the position. I’m in a league where Andy Dalton just got selected in the 15th round. When you get up to 14 teams, then you can start worrying more about depth. For your league, you’ll probably be fine looking simply at per-game numbers for quarterbacks (forgetting about injuries and suspensions). There are enough quarterbacks to go around. You can also look at our team passing projections, but keep in mind they don’t including rushing production. Not sure how you’re scoring it, but this probably works against players like Russell Wilson, Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
TeamYardsTDPPoints
New Orleans5,02433.8453.8
Indianapolis4,57634.7437.1
Green Bay4,43235.0431.8
Pittsburgh4,91230.6429.0
San Diego4,73631.7426.9
NY Giants4,48033.3423.7
Arizona4,51232.8422.4
New England4,43232.5416.5
Oakland4,12830.9391.7
Seattle3,96832.0390.4
Dallas4,06430.4385.6
Jacksonville4,17629.4385.4
Carolina3,90431.0381.4
Washington4,33626.7377.1
Baltimore4,17628.0376.8
Cincinnati4,17628.0376.8
NY Jets4,03228.8374.4
Detroit4,17627.2372.0
Atlanta4,48024.3369.9
Tampa Bay4,24024.5358.9
Miami3,90423.7337.3
Houston3,74424.6335.0
Tennessee3,72823.7328.5
Chicago3,79222.2323.0
San Francisco4,00020.3321.9
Buffalo3,60023.4320.2
Philadelphia3,69621.6314.4
Denver3,80819.7308.5
Kansas City3,48820.3296.3
Minnesota3,44018.7284.4
Cleveland3,36017.1270.7
Los Angeles3,28016.0260.0

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Question 10

I see several running backs that could be lottery tickets being available in my draft very late. This is leading me to think about drafting a defense and kicker much earlier in the draft than normal. I know conventional wisdom says wait very late. But it seems to me that Gostkowski and the Denver D can get you several more points per week than other options. Thoughts?

Tavis Medrano (San Gabriel, CA)

Agreed. Why wait at those positions when the lottery types you select in the final two rounds might be the same guys you were going to select a few rounds earlier. Best to sneak in at best the rush (with the majority of other teams selecting kickers and defenses with their last two picks).

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Question 11

I'm a big fan of FFI. My question is, if you drafted an injury prone TE (i.e. Antonio Gates, Jordan Reed), would it make more sense to draft another TE or stream the position when the injury happens?

Li Sing Khaw (Penang)

Tight end is like quarterbacks, kickers and defenses in that only about 60-75 percent of the NFL starters are getting drafted in typical fantasy leagues. So there will be some viable options that show up during the course of the season. Gary Barnidge, for example, wasn’t drafted in the vast majority of leagues last year. Will Tye wasn’t drafted and was a top-10 tight end in the second half of the season. Guys will get hurt. So at this position, if you wind up with Reed, Gates, Eifert or whomever, I think there’s not a pressing need to spend a second quality pick on that position. You can throw a late round pick or two at a backup tight end, or you can find one on the waiver wire during the season.

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Question 12

I am in a keeper league and need a QB who can throw TDs and 300-yard games. My choices are Romo, Flacco or Fitzpatrick. Who do you recommend and why?

HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)

For 300-yard games, I expect Flacco will have more than those other two guys combined. Marc Trestman loves getting the ball in the air, with lots of cheap completions on dumpoff balls. The Ravens went over 300 passing yards 6 times last year. Fitzpatrick, for as well as he played, had only one 300-yard game. And the Cowboys want to get back to pounding it, like they did in 2014. Romo had one 300-yard game that year. I’m not sure exactly how you’re scoring this league, but I think it will depend a lot more on touchdown passes. In that category, I think Romo has the best chance of going for 30-plus TDs. I’ve got Fitzgerald at about 28-29 and Flacco at about 28. Ultimately, I guess, not really much difference between these three.

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Question 13

I realize that defenses change from year to year, but I'm wondering what the worst fantasy rush and passing defenses from last year? I like to draft for the fantasy playoffs as a tiebreaker if players are projected to be very similar in stats.

MICHAEL WELLS (Good Thunder, MN)

This is fine. Just keep in mind that defenses change. In each of the last five years, for example, the defense that ranked last around the run (in the previous season) didn’t rank in the bottom 10 in run defense. Tennessee back in 2014, for example, had the worst run defense. So they worked on that, made it a priority, and came back and ranked 17th. Stuff changes. If you look at the last 25 defenses to rank in the bottom 5 against the run (see chart), less than a third came back and ranked in the bottom 5 again. That’s using fantasy scoring. So I wouldn’t get too obsessive about strength of schedule. It’s hard enough to forecast players. It can get even more problematic when you’re ranking them based not on what they will do but by how much production will be (or won’t be) allowed by their opponents.

BOTTOM-5 RUN DEFENSES (the next year)
YearTeam (previous rk)AttYardsTDPointsRank
2011Denver (32)4882,02111268.120
2011Buffalo (31)4672,22419336.429
2011Arizona (30)4751,98615288.624
2011Carolina (29)4512,09318317.328
2011Jacksonville (28)4351,66714250.715
2012Tampa Bay (32)3771,32013210.06
2012St. Louis (31)4421,88018296.024
2012Indianapolis (30)4282,20014304.028
2012Buffalo (29)4702,33323371.332
2012Carolina (28)4161,76111242.113
2013Buffalo (32)4712,06310266.321
2013New Orleans (31)3871,78611244.612
2013Jacksonville (30)5072,10820330.831
2013NY Jets (29)4211,4129195.25
2013Indianapolis (28)4482,00214284.225
2014Chicago (32)4211,80312252.315
2014Jacksonville (31)4992,03315293.327
2014Dallas (30)3921,65018273.024
2014Tennessee (29)5152,19517321.532
2014Atlanta (28)4501,89421315.431
2015Tennessee (32)4621,79711245.717
2015Atlanta (31)4161,68020288.028
2015New Orleans (30)4212,07112279.124
2015NY Giants (29)4441,94215284.227
2015Cleveland (28)4582,05511271.522

Bottom 5 pass defenses last year: New Orleans, Giants, Philadelphia, Washington and Pittsburgh.

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Question 14

Do you offer the Standard ESPN scoring system in a standard league?

John Tufts ()

Yes. Click on “Your Stuff”. That will take you to a page listing all of your products. Under the most-recent date, find the link, “Fantasy Index Cheat Sheet and auction values”. Click on that one. That will take you to a new page with a variety of options. One of them will be a link for the ESPN scoring system. It has been carefully looked at and adjusted, showing how I would rank the players if competing in an ESPN format, with the appropriate scoring system and 10 teams in the league. The supply-demand numbers are set up for 10 teams, and with everyone picking the appropriate number of players/starters at each position. (And in that section, notice all the other league scoring systems we support, including NFL.com, Yahoo, FFPC, Real-Time and CDM.

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Question 15

Best playoff (week 14-16) running and passing schedules? I've adopted a strategy that after the first three rounds I put more weight on a player’s playoff schedule. Any thoughts?

Peter Wohler (Minneapolis, MN)

As I mentioned in the earlier letter, I’m not a big fan of investing too much in scheduling. Too much stuff changes. But I ran the numbers. Giants, Bucs, Panthers project to see the easiest run defenses in Weeks 14-16. The Bucs, Eagles and Ravens project to see the softest pass defense. That’s using the results from how defenses performed last year.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (Weeks 14-16)
TeamYardsTDRPoints
NY Giants122.8.9217.8
Tampa Bay126.6.8317.7
Carolina117.6.9817.6
Detroit121.0.8317.1
Chicago118.2.8516.9
Minnesota116.0.8816.8
NY Jets117.1.8516.8
Dallas111.6.9416.8
Los Angeles104.31.0416.7
Oakland115.2.7916.3
Philadelphia115.9.7316.0
Atlanta109.5.7915.7
Arizona112.4.7315.6
Houston107.0.7715.3
Buffalo115.3.6315.3
Cleveland108.6.7315.2
Washington114.6.6315.2
San Diego107.3.7115.0
Pittsburgh107.3.6914.9
San Francisco103.1.6914.4
Seattle108.0.6014.4
Jacksonville107.1.5814.2
Kansas City100.3.6914.2
Indianapolis104.6.6014.1
Cincinnati106.5.5614.0
New Orleans97.3.6913.9
Baltimore108.2.5013.8
Green Bay103.9.5413.6
Tennessee96.2.6713.6
Denver103.1.5413.6
Miami94.3.4812.3
New England90.3.5012.0
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Weeks 14-16)
TeamYardsTDPPoints
Tampa Bay278.62.2741.5
Philadelphia276.52.0039.6
Baltimore278.91.8539.0
Buffalo272.01.9638.9
Dallas273.31.8538.5
Pittsburgh276.71.6537.5
Arizona261.31.8837.4
Cincinnati260.61.8136.9
Houston274.11.5836.9
Washington257.21.8336.7
Minnesota266.51.6336.4
Detroit261.91.6936.3
NY Giants260.41.7136.3
San Diego261.91.6736.2
NY Jets266.91.5836.2
Chicago258.51.7136.1
New Orleans252.11.7936.0
Denver253.01.7335.7
Carolina258.31.5835.3
Oakland257.51.5835.3
Miami251.81.6535.1
Jacksonville243.01.7134.6
Cleveland257.51.4634.5
Kansas City246.71.6334.4
Atlanta265.21.3134.4
Indianapolis251.51.5234.3
Tennessee251.31.5234.3
San Francisco246.21.5634.0
Seattle253.31.3533.5
New England240.41.5433.3
Green Bay237.11.4432.3
Los Angeles248.71.1331.6

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