Ian Allan answers your football questions. In this edition. Which quarterbacks stack up as the best Tom Brady Band-Aids? Is Jordan Matthews a viable No. 1 receiver? And is drafting handcuff running backs overrated?
Question 1
Between his injury and the Eagles acquiring Green-Beckham ,what is Jordan Matthews’ value at this point? I am trying to finalize my keepers.
Jay Monahan (Cincinnati, OH)
Even if Lane Johnson is suspended for the first 10 games, I think the Eagles might still have an above-average offensive line. So there’s that. But I hate Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, and Carson Wentz can’t be counted on to do much of anything in his first year. Somebody’s got to finish in the last in each division, and Philadelphia I think is shaping up to be that team in the NFC East. Every year there are a few offenses that fall well short of 30 touchdowns, and the Eagles could be in that group. I posted the poll question a few days ago, and I was surprised Philadelphia didn’t get more attention as perhaps the lowest-scoring offense in the league. (Readers clicked more often on San Francisco, Cleveland, Los Angeles and Chicago.) But Matthews is at least their No. 1 guy, and he’s expected to be healthy before opening day. I don’t see the Green-Beckham trade affecting his value at all. That speaks more to how crappy the other wide receivers have been – Agholor, Randle, Huff and Givens.
Question 2
I have never drafted a handcuff. I have a hard time understanding why we should draft someone who may have value but only if the starter ahead of him gets injured. With 32 confirmed starters and many RBBC choices can you explain why I shouldn't select a current (but possibly lesser talented) starter over a back up? It seems to me in a 12-team league, after everyone has 2 backs there are still potentially 14+ starters. Would it be more prudent to choose someone who is guaranteed to play?
John Sharp (Windsor, CA)
Guys like Shane Vereen, Bilal Powell and Theo Riddick are certain to play. They will be on the field, and they’ll chip in some production. If you’re looking for a warm body, they can fill that role. But none of those guys are going to help you win your league. They’re not difference makers. What makes backup tailbacks so appealing is that a lot of them at some point during the season will develop into something special. DeAngelo Williams, Devonta Freeman, Karlos Williams, Charcandrick West and Tim Hightower weren’t starters on opening day last year, but later in the year they became guys that everyone was very much interested in. If you wait until the injury to the starter occurs, then pricetag on those backups goes way up.
Question 3
Thanks as always for your work and responsiveness! You seem to employ risk aversion when it comes to ranking players returning from injury -- Charles, Nelson, Benjamin... Is this philosophical or coincidental?
Moishe Steigmann (Glendale, WI)
I think that’s logical. If you’ve got two players who look pretty similar, but one of them is coming off reconstructive knee surgery and potentially could turn into a big headache, I think the more prudent course is to go with the healthier, more stable player, even if he might not be quite as good.
Question 4
Longtime subscriber. One draft prep idea I am actively tinkering with is to take your projections each week, and overlay them onto the ADP stats from fantasyfootballcalculator.com data. I was thinking of dividing your projected yearly point totals by their overall draft position, to generate a "projected points per draft spot" metric of draft value. This way, I was hoping to identify the players that have the greatest value, and look for them throughout the draft. If you think this is a good tool, is it something you might work into your pre-draft updates so we can zero in on more than just your hunches?
Andrew Napoli (Springfield, VA)
It’s a good idea. It’s something I should spend more time on. I wouldn’t try to build a mathematical model, though. I would just lay the two lists side by side and look at the differences. For the top 30 quarterbacks, who are the 3-4 guys that are much higher on my list? And who are the 3-4 that are much lower? Similarly with the top 50 at running back and wide receiver. It’s just a matter of time. It’s adding another hour or two onto the pile, and time is scarce in August. I’ve got to watch 16 games a week. I’ve got to post something every day. I’ve got to write the mailbag. I need to spend about a half of a day on Tues/Wednesday carefully going through all of the team and player projections (including dynasty) making sure everything is just right. There aren’t a lot of dead spots on the calendar.
Question 5
Thanks for doing the math so we don't have to! Speaking of math, which QBs figure to have the easiest schedule the first four weeks, just in case one we’re looking for an inexpensive yet attractive option to pair with Brady as a combo QB1?
L.B. GRAHAM (Kingsville, MD)
San Diego, Dallas, Washington, Atlanta and the Giants. Those look like your best bet (using how defenses performed against the pass last year).
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Weeks 1-4) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Pct |
| San Diego | 17,636 | 128 | 100.0% |
| Dallas | 17,298 | 132 | 99.6% |
| Washington | 17,478 | 120 | 97.5% |
| Atlanta | 17,230 | 122 | 97.0% |
| NY Giants | 17,053 | 123 | 96.5% |
| Baltimore | 17,138 | 118 | 95.7% |
| Cleveland | 16,919 | 121 | 95.5% |
| Pittsburgh | 17,159 | 114 | 94.8% |
| Cincinnati | 17,358 | 110 | 94.6% |
| Kansas City | 17,040 | 107 | 92.7% |
| Minnesota | 16,825 | 106 | 91.6% |
| Arizona | 16,505 | 106 | 90.3% |
| Miami | 17,018 | 97 | 90.2% |
| Detroit | 15,987 | 114 | 90.2% |
| New Orleans | 16,976 | 97 | 90.0% |
| Tennessee | 16,372 | 107 | 90.0% |
| Houston | 15,922 | 114 | 89.9% |
| Denver | 16,753 | 99 | 89.6% |
| Chicago | 16,177 | 106 | 89.0% |
| Oakland | 16,108 | 107 | 89.0% |
| New England | 15,949 | 109 | 88.8% |
| Buffalo | 16,160 | 103 | 88.2% |
| Seattle | 17,018 | 88 | 88.1% |
| Jacksonville | 16,223 | 101 | 88.0% |
| Indianapolis | 16,199 | 97 | 87.0% |
| NY Jets | 15,906 | 87 | 83.4% |
| Los Angeles | 15,601 | 91 | 83.2% |
| Carolina | 15,960 | 83 | 82.7% |
| Tampa Bay | 15,801 | 83 | 82.1% |
| San Francisco | 15,045 | 68 | 75.5% |
Question 6
In a TD-heavy keeper league, would you trade Doug Baldwin for Brandin Cooks? Brees is getting up there in age, while Russell Wilson is younger and throwing more. Your thoughts?
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
I will go with Cooks over Baldwin. Five years younger and a lot more speed.
Question 7
I need to know your thoughts on who the NO kicker is going to be. Also, do you have any thoughts on George Atkinson III? 4 Darius Jackson? Do you see either as a sneaky flier with potential to play later in the year? We are in the 31st round. Shalom my Brotha
DARYL DORSEY (Amarillo, TX)
I don’t have any special knowledge of the New Orleans kicking situation. They’ve got the two former Bucs: Kai Forbath went only 10 of 15 on field goals for them last year. Connor Barth is the same kind of kicker: definitely has a below-average league, so hope would be to at least get average accuracy on shorter kicks. The Saints potentially could dump them both, of course, and pick up somebody else later on. As for the young running backs, Atkinson and Jackson both impressed me in Week 1. Atkinson has been a practice squad player the last two years, but I thought he showed NFL qualities at Arizona. Specifically on his long touchdown, there was a nice lateral move to get outside. I know the Raiders drafted DeAndre Washington, and he’ll be given every opportunity to be their No. 2 back, but I thought Atkinson was better in Round 1. As for Jackson, the Cowboys took him in the sixth round, which was odd, considering they have more needs on the defensive side and already have plenty of tailbacks – Elliott, McFadden, Morris and Dunbar. But Jackson looks like he belongs, and I don’t think they’ll want to risk trying to sneak him onto their practice squad. It would make a lot more sense (I think) to get rid of McFadden.
Question 8
Long time and satisfied reader (magazine purchase day only trails Christmas and draft day for me) ... been in one league since the paper tracking days (1993), and have used FFI every year except the first. Anyway, I think this is a simple question, but just want to make sure. I'm in a new 12 team league with a snake draft, and no keepers ... would picking 10/15 (etc.) be more favorable than 12/13? I have the dreaded 12th pick, and the owner with 10th wants to trade (for the entire draft). I'm pretty sure it's a no brainer, but I'm having trouble pulling the trigger. Having 2 of the first 13 is obviously better than 2 of 15.
SCOTT BRADY (Collegeville, PA)
It doesn’t make a big difference either way, I think. Setting aside the players and the 2016 season, if the opponent offered to trade you all of you 12th picks for all of his 10th picks, you’d be all over that. Similarly, you wouldn’t want to move from 13th to 15th in the other rounds. But all of those odd rounds are slightly more valuable than all of those even rounds, so there’s a slight edge there. With the end-of-the-round position, you also get the slight disadvantage of having to sit on the side for 22 straight picks. As you move up in the order, you reduce that number down to 18, giving you a better chance of grabbling a falling player, if there’s a guy you’re watching tumble through a round. But I don’t think it makes a statistically significant difference either way. Probably best to run a few mock drafts in your head. Decide which two guys you are likely to get if you stay at 12-13 and compare to the pair you would select at 10-15, and go from there. For me, I would probably figure that Mark Ingram would be the player I would want in the second round. I believe he’ll be available with the 15th pick, so I would do the trade, allowing me to move my first-rounder up to 10th.
Question 9
I have an 8-team, $200 auction coming up that has a limited keeper format (you can protect 2 players who have a combined salary of $20, or any one player at any price). I won the league last year but I don't have any great values on the team -- I'll probably keep J Nelson and J Reed - while others have screaming deals on guys like D.Johnson, Robinson, Newton and Freeman. Per your auction value generator, I'm starting in a HUGE hole compared to 6 of the other teams. My question is, would you change your auction strategy in this situation? If so, how? Appreciate any insight you might have.
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
Going into that auction, I would keep one eye on 2017. That is, I would look to buy some players who potentially could get a lot better (making them really good keeper options for next summer). Corey Coleman and Jameis Winston come to mind. Maybe a couple of backup running backs along the lines of Tevin Coleman, Jordan Howard and Devontae Booker. Hunter Henry for $1. Martavis Bryant for $1.
Question 10
I have a keeper question. 10 teams, PPR, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR plus flex. I can either keep Mike Evans for a 4th round pick, or CJ Anderson for a 6th. I'm already keeping David Johnson for a 9th. I would love to know what you think.
Scott Kopischke (Menomonee Falls, WI)
PPR scoring favors wide receivers. If you look at the top 50 RB-WRs, I see 36 wide receivers and only 14 running backs. In your format, you have the ability to start 4 WRs and only 2 RBs. So I will go with Evans. Stat projections indicate he should be going in the early third round (maybe even late second). Could be a top-10 receiver, and you’re getting him a round early. Anderson is a ton different. I see him as an early fifth-round pick, so you’re also getting him a round early. But he’s a notch down as a player.
Question 11
Is there a way to search previous Mailbag posts? For example I wanted to search all posts that mention Drew Brees posted in 2016. I couldn't locate it if there was.
Jonathan Sheppard (Woodbury, NJ)
There is no official search feature, but if you put “Drew Brees Fantasy Index Mailbag 2016” in a Google box, I think it will get the job done for you.