Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Do quarterbacks benefit from home-field advantage? Whatever happened to T.Y. Hilton? And Thomas Rawls? And how does one decide on the best draft position?

Question 1

Kudos for the great work. My question is tied to Brees' lesser road performance of last year. Should history repeat itself, I'd like to know my best QB option to draft with the intent of starting him during each Brees road games. I doubt there's any full-season solution but your insight as to who'd come closest (and considering matchups, to really complicate the question) would be hugely appreciated. Secondly, one of my leagues just changed draft format to allow last year's winner to select their draft spot. Having won (again, my thanks), I'm wondering if the 1st pick is better than another in a 12 team snake. Where would you position yourself?

JOE NORDSTRAND (Dickinson, TX)

I’ve done the draft position question many times (including later in this mailbag). The No. 1 spot always seems to come out on top. Doesn’t seem to matter which scoring system or how many teams, that’s the one. As for quarterbacks at home and away, I was fiddling around with the numbers for home and away. There are 23 quarterbacks who’ve started at least 40 games in the last five years. I took those guys and looked at their last 16 games they started at home, and compared to their last 16 on the road. The five biggest decliners include Ryan Fitzpatrick and four guys who’ll wind up in the Hall of Fame: Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Roethlisberger. This is using 4 points for TD passes and 1 point for every 20 passing yards. I’m leaving rushing production out of it. So the numbers you see below, that’s the average passing yards per game, plus the touchdown passes. For each player, there are 16 games at home (a full season of work) and 16 on the road. Sort of interesting numbers to look at, but not super useful, I think. That is, I don’t think you can look at these past figures and conclude that Wilson, Rivers and Palmer are better road quarterbacks than Rodgers, Brees and Brady. Average quarterback declines about 10 percent on the road; that’s the takeaway. If you have two quarterbacks who otherwise look pretty similar, go with the guy playing at home.

QUARTERBACKS: HOME VS. AWAY (last 16 starts)
PlayersHome AwayPct
Colin Kaepernick195-14216-2325%
Russell Wilson230-23238-3114%
Peyton Manning276-33307-3914%
Alex Smith192-21239-179%
Jay Cutler242-24252-288%
Andy Dalton227-23231-266%
Philip Rivers280-29286-314%
Carson Palmer288-30286-333%
Andrew Luck281-33274-351%
Sam Bradford259-24235-26-4%
Cam Newton239-28216-28-6%
Mark Sanchez220-23216-19-7%
Ryan Tannehill250-30265-21-8%
Eli Manning297-32255-33-8%
Tony Romo268-33223-34-9%
Matt Ryan299-27280-22-10%
Joe Flacco267-26239-21-13%
Matthew Stafford282-30249-24-15%
Tom Brady293-39261-30-16%
Drew Brees333-39297-27-18%
Aaron Rodgers278-42234-27-24%
Ben Roethlisberger325-41278-18-31%
Ryan Fitzpatrick253-36206-18-32%

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Question 2

In your latest ranking, T.Y. Hilton dropped from 9th to 18th, but in the writeup about Indy you didn't even mention him. Why the decrease and why no mention about it in the writeup?

ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)

There are various ways that guys can move in the rankings. Once per week, I’ll spend a few hours and slowly scroll through the rankings. If a player looks a little out of player, I’ll adjust his projection slightly to make him move a few spots up or down. This was not the case with Hilton. It wasn’t a deal where I saw him at 9th and said, “Naw, I would never take him at 9th; I’m moving him down to 18th).” At any time during the week, there can be a news development that causes me to re-work a team’s projection – a key offensive linemen tears his ACL or whatever. Also not the case with Hilton. And finally, there is the scouting of games and the resulting team tweaks. With the Colts, I’ve seen them go by a couple of times and have gotten more comfortable with Phillip Dorsett being a decent third receiver. He’s going to play a lot. As I have increased his projection, it has involved shaving some catches, yards and touchdowns off other players. That is, if you believe the Colts will throw about 34 touchdowns and Dorsett will catch about 5 of them, if you’re moving him closer up to 6 TDs, you have to remove touchdowns from the other players. That’s the way I have it set up. If the Colts are at 34 touchdowns, then Hilton plus Moncrief plus Dwayne Allen plus Dorsett plus all the others can’t add up to 38 touchdowns. They’re all tied together. With Hilton, I think we’re getting a little bit of Dorsett being better. And probably more of the shift is from decreased confidence in the offense as a whole. The Colts (offense) scored 51 touchdowns two years ago. Last year they slipped to 32 (with all the injuries and problems). So what is it for 2016? I think a few months back, I might have had them at 45-46 touchdowns – one of the top half-dozen offenses in the league. I have cooled off that some. Is this the best team in the AFC South? Or is this is the worst team in that division? They still have offensive line issues, a really old running back, and Andrew Luck hasn’t done anything yet to underscore that he’s put his problems behind him. The three other teams in that division all look a lot better. So the Colts have slipped down to slightly under 42 offensive touchdowns on my board – just outside the top 10. I believe that overall concept has been communicated in the updates, and that more than anything else would cause Hilton to drop some. (But not a huge difference between 9th and 18th at the wide receiver position.)

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Question 3

I'm in a 10 team PPR snake redrafter. We can select where we draft as we get randomly selected. Given the choice, rank where you would want to draft? Where do you think you can get the most value?

Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)

I like Antonio Brown a lot, so no surprise that the No. 1 slot is way up there. I ran a few estimate numbers, and that draft position (I think) should be 62 points ahead of the 10th position after the first eight rounds. That’s if I were drafting all 10 teams. As I push around the numbers, I have the other picks in the first half of the draft (choices 2 thru 5) as all better than the slots at the back half of the draft.

PPR SNAKE 10 TEAMS
Draft PositionValue
Slot No. 162
Slot No. 236
Slot No. 530
Slot No. 330
Slot No. 430
Slot No. 618
Slot No. 718
Slot No. 815
Slot No. 94
Slot No. 100

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Question 4

There's a lot of information for drafters every year and I thank you for putting it out as accurately as possible. With that being said, from your point of view, how do you rate the importance of the following information come draft day: Player rankings, news (suspensions, injuries, off field issues, etc), player projections, strength of schedule, etc.) Please include any other info that I might not consider important. Thanks again.

Li Sing Khaw (Penang)

When it’s time to pick players I tend to put all that stuff away. All of those numbers are important, of course, but their purpose is to put the players in the correct order. When it’s time to draft or auction, the scouting process is over. I’ve spent months and months mulling Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo and Marcus Mariota. At this point, whatever order those guys are in, it’s as accurate as it’s going to be. So rather than splitting hairs trying to pick between players who are painfully similar, I just put some trust in all the hours I’ve spent researching these guys all year. At a draft, I think your time is better spent relaxing and trying to see what positions are best addressed in the upcoming rounds. There is no secret stat you are going to uncover at the last minute that will allow you to know whether Matt Ryan will be better than Matthew Stafford.

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Question 5

In your recent rankings you drop Rawls all the way to 36, but have Langford up at 11 and Crowell at 17. This despite saying recently saying that Chicago's OL looks bad with recent injuries, and will likely be a bad team (last in NFC North).With Cleveland - they are expected to be bad too, and Johnson is there to steal carries. Seattle meanwhile is expected to be a top team, and Rawls appears to be healthy for start of season (even if Seattle being cautious). Is this just a function of Langford being the only guy in Chicago vs. Rawls having some help and his style? Seems like a big discrepancy given that OL's will both be bad and Seattle is expected to be an overall better team, which tends to favor running production. Is Cleveland just the Hue Jackson factor? Seems like every year you have a favorite that no one else has...is Crowell that guy this year? Anyway you can expand on how Rawls drops so far, given some of these other comparative factors and style of teams offensive philosophies?

Keith Swiniarski (Delray Beach, FL)

With Rawls, you have health issues. He’s coming off a broken ankle, and I think you’ll have to take him sight unseen. I don’t think he’s playing in the preseason. He runs bigger than he is, so he’ll have problems staying healthy. Is he even their top running back? Christine Michael has played awfully well in the preseason, and Pete Carroll is talking about using more of a one-two punch approach. Rawls probably won’t give you much in the passing game. He caught 9 passes last year. His final year at Central Michigan, he caught only 10 passes in nine games. Langford finished with 70, 109 and 17 receiving yards in his three starts last year, so I don’t think there’s any comparison there. Values of running backs can fluctuate wildly, so let’s see what these teams look like in their third exhibitions. Right now I’m much more comfortable with Langford and Crowell than I am with Rawls.

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Question 6

In 1997, I wanted to get a league together at work. I wanted to make it as simple as possible to get people interested, so I went to the magazine rack at the store, looked at a few and settled on FFI, as it impressed me the most. I made 11 copies of the cheat sheet and that is what we all drafted off of. I just thought it would be something fun to do during football season. The USA Today was the final authority on scores and I scored the league by hand from that paper. Twenty years later, the league has grown into a driving force in some longtime friendships and has remained ultra-competitive. We are going to Vegas this weekend for our 20th draft and a weekend of debauchery (we shall see the limits that us married 40-somethings can push, haha.) We always draft in person, even though some people have moved around the country over the years. Anyway, I was wondering what your favorite league's draft is like? Do you all get together and draft in person? Or is it online, as so many people do these days (which really ruins the fun of draft day in my opinion.) Thanks for all you do!

Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)

I expect the vast majority of leagues select online. That’s the world we live in. And on a lot of these leagues I’m in, I’ve never met or talked to most of the other owners. They’re just online opponents. But for our original league, we do it the old-fashioned way. It’s a TD-only format, and we get together in person each year. Usually one of the 12 franchises will have to Skype or find a proxy bidder, but we get it down. Almost all franchises are based in the Puget Sound area. The Springfield Duffers are the home team for this year’s player selection meeting – the seventh different franchise to host. Looking forward to seeing the guys on Monday night.

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Question 7

I'm in a dynasty PPR league and need to cut down my roster ... I can only keep two of the following players (none of whom would likely have to start for me all year ... just looking at potential): Victor Cruz, Dorial Green-Beckham, Braxton Miller, Jaelen Strong, Torrey Smith, Ted Ginn Jr. ... who do I keep?

Geoff Maleman (Los Angeles, CA)

I know Kelvin Benjamin is back, but Ginn looks like he’s pretty similar to the guy who was playing well at the end of last year. For 2016, Ginn is the best of these guys. But you mentioned that you really had an eye on future seasons. With that in mind, I would be tempted to go with Green-Beckham and Braxton Miller. Miller has gotten all of the reps with the first-unit offense in Houston, working in the slot. I think they want to develop him. So maybe he develops into a Randall Cobb type guy in about 2018. I would say this with more confidence if they didn’t also already have DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Green-Beckham is a huge, talented guy. Change of scenario might help get him on track.

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Question 8

Keeper question that I would like to get your opinion on. I have to choose between Todd Gurley and David Johnson. I know that Johnson plays for the better team, this year, and you have him ranked higher. But what about long term? I was burned by this same scenario after the 2003 season when I chose Ahman Green over LaDainian Tomlinson. As you can imagine, that choice cost me HUGE! Isn't Gurley supposed to be one of those generational type RBs? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)

They both look really good. In Johnson’s favor, he’s probably a lot better in the passing game. Definitely for right now, the Cardinals have a coaching staff who’ll get him involved catching passes. And he might simply be a lot better in that area of the game. But Gurley could be a generational running back, and he’s not necessarily chopped liver as a receiver. He caught 37 passes in 10 games as a sophomore at Georgia. I would go with Gurley, figuring he has a better chance to be a Tomlinson-Peterson kind of back.

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Question 9

In using the projections what is the best way to base pick decisions? I guess where I’m going is if for instance you have the 3rd pick and assuming you’re choosing between D.Johnson and J.Jones. Should you be looking further out in that decision to say ‘will I have more total points with a J.Jones and the RB total points you’d get at pick 22 vs the opposite where you take D.Johnson and a WR at 22’? I know you cannot marry to a specific position so pick 21 can be another WR potentially, but to compare apples to apples should you be looking at what’s best at that specific pick or try and plan further down? In PPR leagues it seems like there’s an urgency to have to get the WR when in fact it may not make the most sense at certain picks.

Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)

If you’re picking at No. 3, I think it’s reasonable to assume you’ll have at least one running back and one wide receiver after your first three picks – 3, 22 and 27. So I think it’s sound to look at those two different routes. Very fair to look at the bundle of Julio Jones and whatever running back you think you might get versus the bundle of David Johnson and that next wide receiver.

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Question 10

Great to be back Ian. After seeing the recent updates I don't want to use the word surprised, but I did do a double take on how high you are ranking: Ingram, Brees, Landry and Moncrief. I guess if the production matches the ranking in the long run, that's what makes the services so valuable. Interesting.

Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)

Those are key guys. Definitely Ingram and Moncrief. I think they’ll be really good. Where they are selected in the various fantasy drafts around the country, we’ll have to see.

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Question 11

Keeper question: Matt Jones as an 8th round pick, or Christine Michael as a 12th round pick.

Augie Cerdan (Folsom, CA)

I’ll go with Matt Jones. You have more confidence what you’re getting.

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Question 12

Interested in your thoughts on optimizing a drafting strategy for the playoffs. I'm in a league with two flex positions at the RB/WR spot. If you are confident you will make the playoffs (which my team usually does) do you typically try to fill those flex spots with WR or RB? Or doesn't that factor into your thinking and is it all about the best available player? When you think about your draft strategy, do you look at the fantasy football playoff schedules and go for the guys that are going against weak opponents? Or just ignore that in your draft prep?

Charles Mobraten (Woodside, CA)

When you’re getting into double flexes, I think you can consider WR and RB to be one big position. When you combine them, I think you’ll see more WRs in your top 40, 50, 60 (especially in PPR). As for scheduling, I’m all for matchups against lousy teams, but it doesn’t look like a good year for identifying those teams. Which teams, for example, are finishing in last in the AFC West, AFC South and AFC East? I don’t think any teams jumps out. And it seems to me that even the Browns aren’t the easy out they’ve been in the past. They’re in a division with Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati, making them a favorite for last, but they look like they’ll be improved. On the NFC side, the 49ers and Rams both look like liabilities, but Los Angeles has a lot of talent on defense. In the NFC North, I’m pretty comfortable penciling in the Bears and Lions for the bottom half of that division. The NFC East and NFC South divisions both look pretty wide open.

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Question 13

I'm taking over the league this year after a four-year hiatus from commissioner. It seems that ALL the major sites have watered down their customization for scoring. What are the best free sites that allow yardage scoring customization (i.e. rushing yards .5 every 10 up to 100, then 1.0 every 10 up to 150, then 1.5 every 10 up to 200). Looking for a good online draft experience, good mobile app too.

KEN SCOTT (Evergreen Pk, IL)

I couldn’t tell you. I haven’t played in any leagues hosted by sites where you play for free. I don’t mind paying a few bucks if I feel the website is worth it. If there are good free sites out there, I suppose a reader will let us know.

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Question 14

I'm in a keeper league (TD only), should I keep Jordan Reed or RB Devonta Freeman? I'd forfeit a 10th round selection in either case.

Shawn Janus ()

Both represent great values. I would protect Freeman. Tight ends are easier to find, and in this case Freeman is much higher on the draft board anyway.

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Question 15

In the Cheat Sheet Rankings and Auction Values under Standard Systems you have RTSports listed for standard and ppr. Are those rankings based on 10 team or 12 team leagues? Does it even make a difference in the rankings if it's 10 or 12 teams?

JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)

Those are 12-team leagues. If you were to switch to a 10-team format, you might see some minor fluctuations in the “overall” section, since those rankings are built around the concept of create a baseline player at each position. If you want to get those rankings exactly right, you would go in, adjust the supply/demand figures slightly (stipulating that there would be slightly fewer players chosen at each position, with it being easier to get a decent player later). As you tinkered with those numbers, it mike cause a slight shift somewhere in your top 30.

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Question 16

I'm drafting in a new league that has some interesting wrinkles. It's a 12-team PPR league, but there's also a point per carry for RBs and a point per completion for QBs. Passing TDs 4 points. All other TDs 6. One point for every 10 yards of any kind, even passing. Also huge bonuses (at least 10 points) for 300 and 400 yard passing games and 100 and 200 yard rushing/receiving games. As well as at least 10 point bonuses for 40+ TDs of any kind. Start QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, flex, K and DST. Question is how to approach this draft. My initial instinct is I need to go with an elite QB maybe as early as round 1 because QB scoring seems insanely high in this system. After that I'd think RB heavy because of the point per carry. Would like to get your input though. Also not sure how to try and do custom ranks for this league because I don't see how to account for the points per carry and points per completion. So any help there would be appreciated too.

Rocky Petrella (Philadelphia, PA)

There’s a backdoor way to account for carries and completions. Assume every running back averages about 4 yards per carry. So when a player runs for 100 yards, it’s not 10 points (1 for every 10 yards), it’s 35 points – 10 for the yards and 25 for the carries need to get those yards. So for ballpark purposes, I think you can go 1 point for every 3 rushing yards. With passing, I think we can use about 11 yards as the average length of completion. So when a quarterback throws for 100 yards, he gets the 10 points for the yards and another 11 points for the completions to get to those yards. Using 1 point for every 5 passing yards will get the job done. Plug those figures into the custom rankings generator, and it should do an accurate enough job of identifying the players you need to be going after.

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Question 17

I need to decide on 1 keeper, standard league. Latavius Murray for a 7th or Cam Newton for a 9th?

Matt Woomer ()

I've got Newton higher on my board than Murray.

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