When putting together a draft board, part of the deal is getting the big picture right. You must identify the teams that are heading up, and which ones will be disappointments. You have to have a general idea of what offenses are going to do.
The way my player projections are crafted, it’s an intricate web, with individuals tied to team performance (so when I move a team projection slightly, it trickles down and affects all of the players on that team.
Heading into the third round of the preseason, here’s how I’ve got the offenses slotted. I’ve got Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay and New England leading the league in scoring, and I’ve got Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago and Cleveland down at the bottom.
Let me know where you think I’m missing the mark.
| EXPECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Carolina | 33.0 | 17.6 | 50.6 |
| Arizona | 33.6 | 15.8 | 49.4 |
| Green Bay | 34.8 | 14.6 | 49.4 |
| New England | 34.4 | 14.7 | 49.1 |
| New Orleans | 33.6 | 14.7 | 48.3 |
| Dallas | 30.7 | 15.0 | 45.8 |
| Seattle | 32.0 | 12.2 | 44.2 |
| Cincinnati | 28.3 | 15.4 | 43.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 30.2 | 13.0 | 43.2 |
| Jacksonville | 30.6 | 11.7 | 42.2 |
| Indianapolis | 33.8 | 8.2 | 41.9 |
| NY Giants | 32.5 | 9.3 | 41.8 |
| San Diego | 31.7 | 7.7 | 39.4 |
| Oakland | 29.2 | 10.1 | 39.3 |
| NY Jets | 28.9 | 10.2 | 39.1 |
| Buffalo | 23.0 | 15.4 | 38.4 |
| Tennessee | 21.9 | 16.2 | 38.1 |
| Kansas City | 20.3 | 17.7 | 38.0 |
| Washington | 27.7 | 10.2 | 37.9 |
| Baltimore | 27.0 | 10.4 | 37.4 |
| Atlanta | 23.7 | 12.8 | 36.5 |
| Houston | 24.5 | 11.7 | 36.2 |
| Detroit | 27.5 | 8.5 | 36.0 |
| Minnesota | 18.7 | 17.0 | 35.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 24.1 | 11.5 | 35.6 |
| Miami | 24.3 | 9.6 | 33.9 |
| Denver | 20.3 | 13.4 | 33.8 |
| Philadelphia | 21.1 | 12.2 | 33.3 |
| Cleveland | 20.3 | 12.9 | 33.2 |
| Chicago | 21.3 | 11.7 | 33.0 |
| San Francisco | 19.3 | 13.2 | 32.5 |
| Los Angeles | 15.2 | 15.4 | 30.6 |
—Ian Allan