Ian Allan answers your fantasy questions. In this edition: Comparing Fantasy Index rankings to the ADP data. Dance with what brung ya (or play the matchups)? And exploring the merits of targeting the LeVeon-DeAngelo tandem.

Question 1

Thanks for your great product. I am a long time customer and play with buddies and several leagues within the FFPC (another great organization and format). Like most players, I simply add my own insight to your extensive research and projections. Each year, I wind up with many similar rosters given your rankings. In recent years you've acknowledged (in some small paragraph) the players which your subscribers will likely wind up with given your take versus the typical ADPs out there. For example, this year I am already heavy on Brees, Ingram and Fitzgerald. I'm not complaining, but I do draft cheaper leagues in my preferred format (FFPC) to find out which players I can likely wait on in subsequent, higher $ drafts. Of course this backfires sometimes. But it would be helpful to get your "heads up" (sooner and bigger) as to where your rankings stand vs. the a-typical current ADP out there.

ALBERT CHAPMAN (Naples, FL)

I just looked at the ADP data for standard scoring. Using those lists, I can offer some names that stand out. At quarterback, I think there’s a good chance you’ll pick either Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton (or both), but you almost certainly won’t pick Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger or Tyrod Taylor. At running back, I can see you picking Mark Ingram, Carlos Hyde, Matt Jones, Isaiah Crowell, but you most certainly will not be picking Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Thomas Rawls. At wide receiver, I think you could be picking Sammy Watkins, Donte Moncrief, Doug Baldwin and Larry Fitzgerald. You must certainly will not be choosing Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas and Kelvin Benjamin. At tight end, you’re not taking Coby Fleener, Jimmy Graham or Eric Ebron, but you’re probably selecting Virgil Green.

1 Comment | Add Comment

Question 2

I usually like to play my top draft picks as my #1 guys and keep them in the lineup every week. Last year, I swayed from that once in a while if I thought one of my reserves might have a better matchup on the given week. Some weeks it worked others it didn't. I didn't have a good year last year, missing the playoffs. What are your thoughts on playing matchups each week versus always starting your studs?

Fabrizio Danova (West Hills, CA)

I play matchups. Once my team is assembled, I don’t care where they came from. A guy could be selected in the second round, or the guy could have just been plucked off the waiver wire – I’m going with the guys that I think will score the most points that week.

Add Comment

Question 3

Love the magazine and the hard work you do get us into the important games in weeks 14-16. Thanks for that. I generally trust your cheatsheet and draft confidently in the face of the sometimes contrarian ADP. However, I’ve done several drafts already and own Mark Ingram in all of them. I'm grabbing him around the 5-8 draft spot, sometimes in the 3rd round! Yahoo league standard scoring. Am I missing something? Or is everyone else?! I'm ashamed to say my confidence is shaken.

frank lovell (Murrieta, CA)

Ingram has missed 5, 3 and 4 games the last three years. Some may be downgrading him because of injury potential. I’m not. I don’t think those past injuries are an indication that he’s more likely than other backs to get hurt in the future. One of those injuries was a broken hand. I don’t think Ingram is particularly great as a runner, but he’s about all they’ve got. In the past, he’s lost some touchdowns to other backs at the goal line; Khiry Robinson has scored 7 TDs in the past two years. But Robinson and Chris Ivory are gone now. He’s definitely their main back and a full-time kind of guy – one of the few around the league. More notably, Ingram is a lot better as a pass catcher than he ever was in the past. He averaged 34 receiving yards per game last year, 2nd-most in the league among starting tailbacks. So while a back like Adrian Peterson will go down in league history as a far better running back, when you do the math it suggests that Ingram will be more valuable in fantasy leagues this year.

Add Comment

Question 4

If you draft the tandem of LeVeon Bell and DeAngelo Williams do you consider that the top-ranked player on the board? In other words if you have the #3 pick do you take Bell and then take Williams in the 6th or 7th round? Williams should put up first-round numbers in the first three games until you get Bell back.

CHRISTOPHER TONELLA (Saint Louis, MO)

Trouble is, you lose a really good player in the sixth or seventh round. If you instead take Ezekiel Elliott or Mark Ingram in the first round, you can still get the handcuff, and said player will come a lot cheaper. Or maybe there’s a jerk in your league who jumps in ahead of you in the sixth round and grabs Williams.

1 Comment | Add Comment

Question 5

I agree with your opinion on Freeman being the better back by far but how can you have him ranked so high overall. In the last two weeks it's obvious this looks like a committee to me. Coleman was even in on two third downs when Freeman started the series. After last night do you still think is rank that high is justified or do you think it is a concern now.I agree with your opinion on Freeman being the better back by far but how can you have him ranked so high overall? In the last two weeks it's obvious this looks like a committee to me. Coleman was even in on two third downs when Freeman started the series. After last night do you still think is rank that high is justified or do you think it is a concern now.

STEPHEN NORD (Jamestown, NY)

I’m just getting ready to watch that game right now. I have only glanced at the boxscore and seen the highlights. So I can’t speak to the game in detail. But I would be very surprised if Tevin Coleman replaces Freeman on any third downs in the regular season. Freeman, I think, is far better in pass protection and catching the ball. Coleman caught only 2 of the 11 passes thrown to him last year and wasn’t used as a pass catcher at Indiana.

Add Comment

Question 6

I'm in a 10-team, 2-QB, non-PPR league with standard scoring. I'm picking 7th and get to choose up to 2 keepers, but I have to sacrifice a draft pick for each one. Which two would you keep: Antonio Brown for a 2nd, Jordy Nelson for a 9th, Carlos Hyde for a 10th, or Devonta Freeman for a 12th? Hyde and Freeman seem to offer the most value for the draft slot, but it's awfully tempting to get Brown at 14th overall (I like him as much as you do).

Robert Bedetti (Beverly, MA)

I want value – players who will outperform where they are selected. Hyde and Freeman certainly fit that description. They would be the guys. With Brown, given the dynamic of starting two quarterbacks, you would be getting a good player, but you would be getting him at close to where you would select him in the regular draft.

Add Comment

Question 7

First of all thank you -- I've been reading FFI for probably 20 years now since I was a kid helping my dad draft and pulling together depth charts. He retired from the game and I went to college, magazine in hand, and started leagues with friends, one of which I still commission 10 years later. The league is a 12-team half-point PPR and I have a keeper decision to make. Already keeping Antonio Brown (1st rd pick) for the third straight season now (another thank you for being a little more bullish on him than most in 2014) but based on your words of caution I'm planning to let go of Jamaal Charles, who would be my 2nd pick after Brown if kept. My other options have some risk involved but will have value based on where I'd get to draft them: Doug Martin (4th), Jeremy Langford (6th). Both are average pass-catchers, but Martin strikes me as a high floor/low ceiling option and Langford more of a low floor/high ceiling guy. I also could go the other direction and keep Eric Decker (7th).

Steven Chaitman (CHICAGO, IL)

Thanks for the kind words. With the running backs, let’s keep in mind that they’re separated by two rounds – Langford comes two rounds cheaper. I think that’s significant. With Martin, will he even be chosen before the fourth round? Not necessarily. I like the look of Langford. He looks like a young guy on the rise who gets it. I think he’s working at it and wants to get better. As a rookie he was remarkably bad in the passing game, catching only 22 of the 42 passes thrown his way. That was the worst of all running backs with at least 30 targets. There were 7 drops in there. But I think they can get a lot of those issues fixed. With his speed and elusiveness, I think he can get free and do some damage with those dumpoff balls. In the three games he started last year, Langford finished with 70, 109 and 17 receiving yards. I think he’s your guy.

Add Comment

Question 8

Jeremy Hill has risen pretty substantially up your rankings over the past few weeks. I drafted him last year and was disappointed in the yardage totals and ypc, although the short touchdowns helped to compensate. Is your projection assuming that he improves his yards per carry somewhat significantly?

Bob Heaps (Portage, MI)

He was crappy last year; no doubt about it. But I think he gets that. I think he’s put the work in, and you’ll see a better player. I think he’s definitely their starting tailback, with Giovani Bernard more of a third-down back.

2 Comments | Add Comment

Question 9

Question about Auction Values. Do you have a budget for starters vs bench players? If you value starting positions more than bench players, I thought it would make sense to weight the starting players, who are non K or D (in our league 84 of 192 drafted) more than the bench guys. this way you spend more money on the guys who start and the 85-192 ranked players dont take too much of your budget up. What are your thoughts, and how would you weight it.

ERIC FEINGOLD (Garden City, NY)

I’m casting the net a little farther than you are. On my board, I’m caring (placing value) on all starting quarterbacks and about half of the No. 2 quarterbacks (quarterbacks 13 thru 18). At running back, I’m placing value on all starters, the best backup on each fantasy team, and a couple more guys. At wide receiver, I’m valuing about 4 guys per team (12-team league). At tight end, I’m placing value on one per each team, plus a few reserves. At kicker and defense, I’m placing value on just a couple of guys at those positions. If you want to ignore or devalue running backs and wide receivers in the late 20s and into the 30s, you can go into the setup and change the settings. At quarterback, for example, you might see that I’m saying about 26 will be selected, and 18 of those will be worth more than $1.00 (that is, 18 of those quarterbacks are guys I care about). If you care only about starters, you could change it to read that only 12 quarterbacks are worth more than $1.00. But if you go that route, you’re working off the premise that in an auction you will be able to get somebody like Derek Carr, Jameis Winston or Matthew Stafford for $1.00. I don’t think that’s the case.

1 Comment | Add Comment

Question 10

A couple of months ago, you toyed around with the idea of an enhanced VBD. I was wondering if you had looked at that any more? It wasn’t perfect, but with a few tweaks, I think it could be a great resource for fantasy drafts. The main thing I would change is using an “equalization factor” for QBs and TEs. Since you are only using half of the number or players at those positions, multiply the result by 2 to get a more accurate account of where they should be on the overall list. The next thing isn’t so much a change to the ranking method as it is an idea on how to better illustrate it. Instead of looking at the top 100 players over the last 5 years, maybe look at the top 50 for a specific year and compare the eVBD for projected versus actual stats. Looking at past years, I don’t think you would need to go as deep, but for the current or future years, you could go top 100, 150, or even 200 based on projected stats. At the end of the year, compare that to the actual stats. It would be great if it was an option on the custom scoring profiles to use traditional VBD versus enhanced VBD for the overall player ranking.

Roy Sherman (Columbia, TN)

I was thinking out loud – exploring some ideas. The basic thrust of the experiments were to better account for the difference between a player and ALL of those players below him, not just one baseline player. That is, suppose you had 30 running backs. The No. 1 running back is worth 100 points, then you’ve got 25 that are worth about 90 points, then you have the rest worth about 10 points each. (A ridiculous assumption, I agree, but bear with him). At wide receiver, you’ve got one that’s worth 100 points, and all the others are worth about 10 points. Using traditional VBD, it would tell us that the No. 1 player at each of these positions would be worth about 90 points (100 minus 10). But clearly they’re not worth the same, since far more players at running back are at least within striking range. So I was looking instead at the total statistical difference between the two. That is, for the No. 1 running back, I’d look at how much better he would be than No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, and so on, and add all of those numbers together. That was the preliminary idea, and I thought it had some merit. But I spent a few hours poking around with the numbers and didn’t like the way it was heading – did not seem to improve the rankings.

Add Comment

Question 11

Thank you Ian for always being responsive to your readers. In a keeper league heavy on TD points I have Barnidge yet drafted Ertz to replace him. However, it appears Ertz has received few snaps and the Eagle offense looks anemic. Barnidge is an every down player and RG 3 seems to be winging the ball downfield. Is it time to cut Ertz? I also have Romo but Flacco, Fitzpatrick, RG 3 are available too. Would you stay with Romo?

HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)

Nothing wrong with some roster adjustments. Today I would dump Romo, and I would replace Ertz with Barnidge.

Add Comment

Question 12

In looking at auction values for one of my leagues I noticed the following. Cam Newton is projected to score 26% more points than Rivers. His auction value is 200% higher. Antonio Brown is projected to score 32% more points than Brandon Marshall, his auction value is 75% higher. To use an example closer in projected points, David Johnson is projected to score 6% more points than Gurley, his auction value is 9% higher. Is this because given the limited number of teams/roster spots those extra points are at a premium? What is the math behind the way it calculates values?

STEVE WEBER (Paso Robles, CA)

If you get stuck in traffic and miss the first half of your auction, you might still be able to get a quarterback like Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tony Romo for a dollar. Blaine Gabbert and Robert Griffin III might not be chosen at all. So don’t look at total production. Look at the production above and beyond what you think you can get for around $1.00. With the quarterbacks, for example, don’t look at Newton vs. Rivers. Look at (Newton minus Ryan) vs. (Rivers minus Ryan). Do it that way, and those auction values will fall exactly in line with the expected stat production.

Add Comment

Question 13

In a league with bonus points depending on how long the touchdown is who do you take with the second pick, Gurley or Beckham?

Shawn George ()

Those should be two of the guys you’ll be considering. Gurley should score more touchdowns, while Beckham has more long-range potential. But David Johnson and Antonio Brown are also in the mix. We’ve got a custom scoring feature on the website. You plug in how many bonus points you’re talking about, and the program combines your scoring system, our player projections, and the player profile (speed/range) to generate a custom draft board.

Add Comment

Question 14

I'm looking for the audio of "Joe and the Magic Bean," as read by Sterling Holloway (Winnie the Pooh/Birdee on Gilligan's Island). Distinctive voice. Magical. Orson Welles on the Dean Martin show was OK, but not the same. Not close. There's a trivia question. Best known for pantyhose, what skin care product was Joe Namath known for shilling? Keeper potential, top 8 to date please (semi-PPR, and I hate keeping QBs due to position value "indistinction"): Saints QB, Steelers QB, Ajayi, Hyde, Rawls, Beckham (yes), B Cooks, TY Hilton, Allen Robinson, D Thomas, Greg Olsen. It's receiver heavy, to be sure, and I'm trying to trade somebody. Appreciate your value analysis, and I am subscribed to your updates, just haven't read them yet.

JOHN MACHO (Elko New Mrkt, MN)

I remember seeing the “Joe and the Magic Bean” clip,, produced by NFL Films, when I was a kid. Didn’t know there were versions with different narrators. I would have thought it would have been John Facenda, but obviously not. As for the trivia question, I’m old enough that I had no problem coming up with the answer. But I am not quite old enough that I remember ever seeing the ad on television. But it’s up there with Mean Joe Greene’s Coco-Cola as one of the most famous football player commercials of all time. (Also: while I am embarrassed to admit it, I wasted hours of my youth watching Gilligan’s Island, but I have no recollection of ‘Birdee’). As for your keepers, you’re definitely keeping Beckham, Cooks, Hilton, Robinson, Olsen, Hyde. No discussion needed for those guys. I would stick the Saints QB in the 7th spot. For the last spot, maybe Rawls, but he doesn’t do much in the passing game, hurting in that format.

2 Comments | Add Comment

Question 15

Is Mark Ingram projected to have a breakout season this year? I noticed that fantasy index has him rated a lot higher than most other websites and publications for their cheat sheet rankings.

Chris Iorio (Baden, PA)

That’s what I keep hearing. I’ve got a couple of other letters this week with Ingram in them. I’ve got him ranked higher than what people are seeing elsewhere. If you buy into the reasoning, then he’ll be on a lot of your fantasy teams.

Add Comment

Question 16

I have the #1 pick in a 14 team league with 1/2 point PPR. Would you take WR Antonio Brown 1st overall, and wait on RB's? The teams with the elite WR's have been doing best in our league the past couple seasons.

sean sullivan (Orlando, FL)

Sounds good to me.

Add Comment