As we’re walking into our drafts, we need to keep in mind the big-picture reality that many of these teams will be radically different this year. That is, at least a few of the teams that were really good last year will have lousy years, and at least a few of the seemingly crappy teams will be big surprises.
The NFL went to the eight-division format in 2002. In the ensuing 13 seasons, 20 different teams have improved from last to first in their division. (Technically 16 teams in those 13 seasons – four tied for last place but didn’t officially finish down in 4th because of tiebreakers, and those are flagged with asterisks).
| TEAMS GOING WORST TO FIRST | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Record | Previous |
| 2003 | Carolina | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| 2003 | Kansas City | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| 2004 | Atlanta | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| 2004 | San Diego | 12-4 | 4-12 |
| 2005 | Chicago | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| 2005 | New York Giants | 11-5 | 6-10* |
| 2005 | Tampa Bay | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| 2006 | Baltimore | 13-3 | 6-10* |
| 2006 | New Orleans | 10-6 | 3-13 |
| 2006 | Philadelphia | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay | 9-7 | 4-12 |
| 2008 | Miami | 11-5 | 1-15 |
| 2009 | New Orleans | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| 2010 | Kansas City | 10-6 | 4-12 |
| 2011 | Denver | 8-8 | 4-12 |
| 2011 | Houston | 10-6 | 6-10* |
| 2012 | Washington | 10-6 | 5-11 |
| 2013 | Carolina | 12-4 | 7-9* |
| 2013 | Philadelphia | 10-6 | 4-12 |
| 2015 | Washington | 9-7 | 4-12 |
If form holds, one of those last-place teams from 2015 will wind up in first. It’s a group that includes Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, San Diego, Dallas, Chicago, San Francisco and Tampa Bay.
I’ll toss up a poll question and let you vote on it. I expect the Cowboys will get the most votes, with probably the Chargers and Titans next in line.
—Ian Allan