Sometimes I think it’s useful to set aside the individual players and look at teams – offenses, anyway. Which ones are going to be moving the ball and scoring points? That’s where we’re going to be wanting to do our shopping.
Similarly, if a team looks like a big bag of whale crap, best to in general stay away from that group. To me, the Rams, Bears and 49ers stand out as teams that are going to have problems.
We’ve seen these teams go by a few times this month, and to me, I think Carolina looks like the best bet to score 50 touchdowns. I’ve got Green Bay, Arizona and New England just behind them. As poorly as Carson Palmer has played, I wonder if I should flip the Patriots and Cardinals.
The Saints have played very poorly in this exhibitions, with the offensive line being consistently overrun. That doesn’t necessarily mean too much, but I’ve dropped by about a touchdown, lowering them away from that group.
I don’t necessarily think the Tony Romo injury is a big deal. It’s been so long that I’ve seen him on the field playing as an elite quarterback, and Dak Prescott has looked really comfortable. He’s got the mobility dimension as well. So I’ve lowered the Cowboys by only about a touchdown; I think that’s still going to be a top-10 offense.
Here’s my current chart. Shown are the touchdown totals for 2013 thru 2015, as well as my current forecast for the 2016 season. These are the feeder numbers that fuel the individual rankings on our draft boards.
EXPECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
1. | Carolina | 38 | 33 | 55 | 50.1 |
2. | Green Bay | 43 | 52 | 40 | 49.1 |
3. | Arizona | 36 | 27 | 51 | 48.8 |
4. | New England | 44 | 47 | 50 | 48.6 |
5. | New Orleans | 49 | 49 | 48 | 47.2 |
6. | Dallas | 45 | 53 | 24 | 45.5 |
7. | Seattle | 41 | 40 | 44 | 44.0 |
8. | Cincinnati | 47 | 39 | 49 | 43.7 |
9. | Pittsburgh | 37 | 43 | 42 | 43.5 |
10. | Jacksonville | 23 | 24 | 40 | 41.9 |
11. | Indianapolis | 38 | 51 | 32 | 41.0 |
12. | NY Giants | 29 | 43 | 41 | 40.8 |
13. | San Diego | 41 | 37 | 34 | 40.6 |
14. | Washington | 34 | 33 | 39 | 40.2 |
15. | Houston | 26 | 34 | 36 | 40.0 |
16. | NY Jets | 25 | 27 | 44 | 38.9 |
17. | Tennessee | 38 | 26 | 35 | 38.9 |
18. | Oakland | 33 | 26 | 41 | 38.7 |
19. | Kansas City | 41 | 37 | 39 | 38.6 |
20. | Buffalo | 31 | 30 | 42 | 38.1 |
21. | Minnesota | 41 | 30 | 32 | 37.8 |
22. | Baltimore | 26 | 43 | 29 | 36.8 |
23. | Atlanta | 37 | 39 | 35 | 36.2 |
24. | Tampa Bay | 28 | 28 | 34 | 36.2 |
25. | Detroit | 44 | 33 | 40 | 36.0 |
26. | Miami | 32 | 39 | 35 | 34.9 |
27. | Philadelphia | 51 | 43 | 38 | 33.8 |
28. | Denver | 71 | 55 | 32 | 33.4 |
29. | Cleveland | 30 | 29 | 25 | 33.3 |
30. | San Francisco | 39 | 30 | 23 | 32.3 |
31. | Chicago | 45 | 38 | 34 | 30.7 |
32. | Los Angeles | 32 | 31 | 27 | 30.6 |
—Ian Allan