Let’s take another stab at Strength of Schedule. Not based on what happened last year (too old) and not based on what’s happened so far (not enough). But built upon the premise of how good we thing these teams are.

The 32 teams, if they were all playing average schedules, I think would finish with records about like this …

IAN'S POWER RANKINGS
TeamWLTPct
Carolina1420.875
New England1420.875
Pittsburgh1141.719
Arizona1141.719
Seattle1141.719
Denver1150.688
Green Bay1051.656
Cincinnati961.594
NY Giants961.594
NY Jets961.594
Houston961.594
Minnesota970.563
Kansas City970.563
Dallas871.531
Baltimore871.531
Atlanta880.500
Oakland781.469
Philadelphia781.469
Tampa Bay781.469
Washington790.438
Miami691.406
New Orleans6100.375
Tennessee6100.375
San Diego6100.375
Jacksonville6100.375
Indianapolis6100.375
Detroit5101.344
Buffalo5101.344
Los Angeles5110.313
San Francisco4120.250
Chicago3130.188
Cleveland2140.125

If we then take those win-loss records and plug them into the upcoming schedule, we get an idea of who’s going to be helped and hurt by scheduling.

I’m leaving out Weeks 1-2 (they’re over and done with). And I’m leaving out Week 17 (it doesn’t count for fantasy purposes in most leagues).

So for just Weeks 4-16, the Titans, Lions, Packers and Dolphins project to play the easiest schedules.

The Falcons, Eagles, Seahawks and Saints should play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 3-16)
TeamWLTPct
Tennessee871174.428
Detroit911125.450
Green Bay911116.452
Miami901108.452
NY Giants911098.457
Dallas911098.457
Chicago921097.459
Jacksonville931096.462
Tampa Bay981073.478
Arizona991045.488
Carolina1001044.490
San Diego1001035.493
New England981019.493
Houston1011034.495
Indianapolis1001026.495
Cincinnati991018.495
Oakland1021024.500
Denver1021024.500
Minnesota1001008.500
Pittsburgh100999.502
Washington102979.512
San Francisco104968.519
Buffalo106957.526
NY Jets107956.529
Baltimore106939.531
Kansas City109945.536
Cleveland107929.536
Los Angeles109918.543
New Orleans112915.550
Seattle111907.550
Philadelphia111889.555
Atlanta115885.565

—Ian Allan