Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: What to make of Ty Montgomery's big game against the Bears. Defenses with the most favorable fantasy schedules. Missed extra points. And keeping an eye on the only team that still gets to play two games against that horrible New Orleans defense.
Question 1
I am wondering how you feel about Ty Montgomery going forward after tonight's game? He is big for a WR and could definitely be at least a part-time RB for a while. Is there a possibility he continues to lead the backfield with the early success he has had, or is he just keeping the seat warm for Jackson/Davis/Starks to eventually take over?
Jason Kurvers (EAU CLAIRE, WI)
He looks good to me. At 6-foot and 216 pounds, he actually has more of a running back build than James Starks (who’s 2 pounds heavier but also 2 inches taller). Hands are great, and I think he’s fine running draws, delays and sweepers. Not a pile-pusher that you want to slam between the tackles. With that pass-catching ability, that opens up some dimensions to the offense that weren’t there with Eddie Lacy and Starks. That pass-catching ability is important, I think, because it gives Rodgers an outlet to work with if his receivers aren’t open (which has been a problem there). I think Montgomery will be their main running back for the rest of the season, with other backs worked in to spell him. Knile Davis or Don Jackson maybe gets out there for 25 percent of the playing time. But I think it’s Montgomery’s gig. Should be really good in a PPR format, catching 6-8 balls every week. I was surprised that they made it through the entire broadcast last night without mentioning that his dad was once a big-time running back with the Eagles. Went over 1,200 yards three times and helped them to a Super Bowl.
Question 2
Should I drop Carolina defense and pickup Baltimore? Looking at the schedule looks like Carolina plays a harder schedule. Play the Saints twice, Arizona, Raiders, and Chargers, which are passing teams. Please let me know what you thoughts.
BRIAN ROWELL (Saint Johns, MI)
If you look at the average number of sacks, interceptions and fumbles given up by offenses, Baltimore’s schedule in its next five games is more favorable than Carolina’s. For this chart, I looked at the average number of sacks and turnovers of each offense. (Some teams have played five games and some have played seven, so average per game). Then I looked at the totals for the next five games. (So teams have already had byes, so Weeks 7-11 for them, while Weeks 7-12 for others.) Following that process, Oakland, Los Angeles, Kansas City and Tennessee project to have the most favorable schedules. Three of the league’s very best defenses have unusually difficult upcoming schedules (opponents that don’t tend to take sacks or turn the ball over). Most notably, I see Philadelphia, Seattle and Minnesota playing difficult schedules. I’m not saying those will be below-average fantasy defenses over the next month, but it’s worth thinking about. For me, Tennessee comes to mind as a defense that might be the best sitting on some waiver wires in some leagues.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Defenses (next 5 games) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Sack | Int | Fum | Points |
| Oakland | 12.5 | 6.67 | 3.00 | 31.9 |
| Los Angeles | 10.4 | 6.63 | 3.73 | 31.2 |
| Kansas City | 13.1 | 6.13 | 2.73 | 30.9 |
| Tennessee | 14.5 | 3.90 | 3.73 | 29.7 |
| New Orleans | 12.3 | 4.13 | 3.93 | 28.4 |
| Miami | 10.3 | 4.83 | 3.67 | 27.3 |
| Atlanta | 11.0 | 4.13 | 3.97 | 27.2 |
| San Francisco | 11.0 | 4.73 | 2.83 | 26.1 |
| San Diego | 11.7 | 4.67 | 2.50 | 26.0 |
| NY Jets | 12.3 | 3.67 | 3.00 | 25.7 |
| Houston | 11.5 | 3.73 | 3.23 | 25.4 |
| Buffalo | 12.8 | 3.30 | 2.83 | 25.1 |
| Baltimore | 11.3 | 4.33 | 2.50 | 25.0 |
| Chicago | 9.5 | 4.60 | 3.13 | 25.0 |
| Cincinnati | 10.7 | 3.83 | 3.00 | 24.3 |
| Denver | 9.7 | 3.53 | 3.73 | 24.3 |
| Indianapolis | 9.5 | 4.07 | 3.33 | 24.3 |
| New England | 9.8 | 4.73 | 2.43 | 24.2 |
| Cleveland | 10.3 | 4.17 | 2.67 | 24.0 |
| Arizona | 10.8 | 3.57 | 2.80 | 23.5 |
| NY Giants | 12.8 | 2.94 | 2.41 | 23.5 |
| Carolina | 9.9 | 3.87 | 2.73 | 23.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 12.7 | 2.33 | 2.83 | 23.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 10.5 | 2.97 | 3.05 | 22.5 |
| Jacksonville | 10.0 | 3.90 | 2.33 | 22.4 |
| Dallas | 10.9 | 3.70 | 2.03 | 22.4 |
| Green Bay | 11.6 | 3.37 | 1.70 | 21.7 |
| Minnesota | 10.3 | 3.60 | 1.91 | 21.3 |
| Detroit | 9.3 | 3.73 | 1.47 | 19.7 |
| Seattle | 10.3 | 2.50 | 2.10 | 19.5 |
| Philadelphia | 9.4 | 2.07 | 2.97 | 19.5 |
| Washington | 10.6 | 1.83 | 2.53 | 19.3 |
Question 3
Is it just my perception or are kickers missing an inordinate number of extra points since the NFL moved them back? In my league your team is penalized for missed kicks under 51 yds. When you have time could you do a comparison of the percentage of missed field goals of 30-35 yds. in seasons past to the percentage of missed extra points this season.
DANIEL GOODLETT (Bonita, CA)
The extra point rule is working pretty much like everyone expected. In 2014 season, teams went 155-163 on field goals of 30-35 yards – that’s 95.1 percent. In the first year of the new extra points, teams went 1,146-1,217 on them – 94.2 percent. They’re between those two figures this year, 418-441 (94.8 percent) after Mason Crosby’s miss last night.
Question 4
How will T.Y. Hilton's value be effected by the return of Donte Moncrief?
James Crawford (Atlanta, GA)
Moncrief hasn’t practiced at all, so I would say he’s not particularly likely to play in Week 8. Maybe they get him in Week 9, and he’s probably a pretty safe choice to be back to 100 percent and in his usual role when they return from their Week 10 bye. When they get Moncrief in there, it might help result in slightly fewer targets for Hilton. But not necessarily. Maybe the presence of another quality receiver helps to open up Hilton to sneak deep for a few more long receptions. I wouldn’t worry too much about Hilton – clearly a strong rapport between him and Andrew Luck.
Question 5
Seeking trade advice: I'm would be giving up A.J. Green, Christine Michael and Jeremy Hill for Russell Wilson, Alshon Jeffery and Tyrell Williams. I can also swap out Wilson for Jamison Winston. I'd like to hear your opinion on this potential trade.
JODY JANSON (Pittsford, NY)
Lots of different pieces involved, and I’m not sure what you’re after, but I can add a couple of thoughts. Brian Hoyer broke his arm last night, so the Bears will be going back to Jay Cutler. That helps Jeffery. There’s a comfort level between those two – a rapport. In Cutler’s two games, Jeffery accounted for 45 percent of the team’s receiving yardage. In Hoyer’s four complete games, Jeffery accounted for only 22 percent of their yards. So the gap narrows between Green and Jeffery, I think. And with Wilson and Winston, you might want to look at schedules. Wilson is definitely better, but Winston plays New Orleans in Weeks 14 and 16 – he will be better than Wilson in both of those weeks.
Question 6
Much thanks again for your diligent work! I'm in Superflex and with bye weeks I have a few guys neck and neck for my second flex slot. Your weekly rankings this week came off the press just before the news of McCoy's hammy tightness, if he does sit this week what would Gillislee's point projection be in a PPR format?
JAY HARDING (PORTLAND, OR)
A candidate, I think, to be a top-10 running back. Maybe even top 5 – every time they put him on the field, he looks pretty similar to McCoy, and that offense is rolling right now. But with the Bills being on the road against a team that might be starting to play better right now, I will project him a little more cautiously than that. I think he’ll come in somewhere on 15th-17th among running backs when the revised rankings are published this afternoon (and that would be if it’s certain that McCoy is sitting out).
Question 7
I need to shore up my receivers, as I have Johnson, Howard, Blount, Crowell and just got Yeldon for my RB. My WR are Watkins (gone), Decker (gone), Dez, Snead, Enunwa, Fuller and Britt. I proposed a trade of Crowell for Fitzgerald, but he countered with Edelman. I originally declined, but once I got Yeldon on waivers, I felt better about still having four good RB. Thoughts?
Bob Phipps (Orlando, FL)
I don’t think you’re in a position where you’re squeezed and forced to make a move. I think you’re OK at wide receiver. Dez Bryant will come back healthy in Week 8; he might be a top-10 receiver in the second half of the season. Will Fuller is for real, and he’s supposedly over his hamstring issue. Willie Snead I believe is over his toe injury, and he’s a starter-quality guy – especially when the Saints are playing in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Kenny Britt is having a big year; maybe you can squeeze him in for a few starts. And with Eric Decker out for the year, Quincy Enunwa is definitely the No. 2 receiver for the Jets. I think you should be fine with that group. In regards to measuring Crowell against those veteran receivers, in standard scoring I believe he will outscore both Larry Fitzgerald and Julian Edelman. In PPR scoring, I think both of those receivers will outscore Crowell.
Question 8
Love reading your thoughts each week. Standard league with an exception where QBs get a point for every 10 yards passing. I have Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Mark Ingram, Spencer Ware, Wendell Smallwood, Knile Davis, Odell Beckham, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith, and Michael Thomas. Considering trading Ryan and Jackson for Todd Gurley and T.Y. Hilton. I feel I am weak in RB, so this move would get me stronger at RB and WR, but lose some ground at QB. What are your thoughts?
BRIAN MINSTER (Warminster, PA)
There’s the line in there about quarterbacks getting a point for every 10 passing yards. With that in mind, no way. In that kind of league, the first building block, I think, is to make sure you’re putting a 300-yard passer on the field every week. In such a format, Matt Ryan is right up there with Drew Brees and Tom Brady as perhaps the MVP of the league in the second half of the season. Why would you move him for a running back who’s having a pretty disappointing year? If you part with Ryan, you’re backed into the corner of having to start Cousins every week, and you don’t want that. I like Cousins as a second quarterback, but not a player you are forced to rely on. He’s still got a bye coming up, for example, and I also see a game against the Vikings. I would stick with those two quarterbacks and figure that you’ll be able to sort things out with the running backs.
Question 9
One of the other owners is throwing out Antonio Brown and Russell Wilson for a trade. I have Brees and Rivers and I am bad on my wide receivers as I chose Dez and Sammy Watkins originally. I have Gronk and Witten, so I thought about offering Gronk and Rivers for his Wilson and Brown. What do you think?
Bob Phipps (Orlando, FL)
Sounds good to me. Wilson is better than Rivers, so there’s an upgrade there. With Brown, he won’t be quite as good in some of these upcoming games with Ben Roethlisberger on the shelf, but he’s still an elite receiver (and when he gets back to operating at full capacity, he’s a lot better than even a great player like Rob Gronkowski).
Question 10
PPR league with typical scoring system. Start Kyle Rudolph or Willie Snead as my flex for week 7? I know I'm asking late in the week. Hope you can advise.
CRAIG BOLGER (Sun City, AZ)
When making decisions on flex players, you can go into the custom rankings, click on the player’s name and see exactly what the forecast for him is. Or you can get the same info in the Excel file. Rudolph was a little higher than Snead on Wednesday, and I don’t expect that will change when the final projections are released later today.
Question 11
How do you feel about the following trade: Mark Ingram and Marvin Jones for Alshon Jeffery and Doug Martin. Ingram has been getting the touches, but in goal-line situations it's either a pass by Brees or a vulture by Kuhn. Jones has slowed down as of late, saving his last two weeks with touchdowns. His targets are also more balanced with the rest of the receiving corps. Now, Alshon is no longer on the injury report and his upcoming schedule looks favorable. Same with Martin once healthy.
Darrell Sooy (West Chester, PA)
You would be taking on the Martin hamstring injury. That’s significant. I would much rather have Ingram than Martin. If you’re looking more long-term, than factor in that Martin gets to play against New Orleans in Weeks 14 and 16; he could come up big in some key games for you at that time. With Jeffery, I think he’ll be helped by the move back to Jay Cutler. I wouldn’t worry too much about injuries. I don’t know that Jeffery is any more banged up than a lot of other wide receivers around the league. When he keeps showing up as questionable each week, I think that’s probably more due to him preferring to take a few practices off and how the team handles its paperwork.
Question 12
I am in a PPR 3-keeper league. I've been offered Christine Michael (keeper potential) and Jordy Nelson (cannot be kept) for Lamar Miller (also cannot be kept). I am still very high on Lamar as a true workhorse, but should I make the deal? My wides are obviously a weak spot and Jordy is now on the block after his 'performance' on TNF.
Anthony Cillis (Lagrangeville, NY)
The deal seems to make sense to me. Nelson is definitely a starting-quality receiver that Aaron Rodgers has a comfort level with. There’s value there. So it would be nice to bring him into the fold. And Michael in some ways is comparable to Miller. As you point out, there’s a chance you might be able to protect Michael in 2017; that has to be factored in. And the Seahawks have already had their bye, so Michael has one more game left on his schedule. Miller is handling the ball an awful lot right now. If you opt to keep him, you should probably pick up Alfred Blue as an insurance policy.