HOUSTON (vs Detroit)
Relative to what we thought it would do in the preseason, Houston's offense has been the most disappointing in the league -- next-to-last in scoring, and only three teams have gained fewer yards. But all three of the team's losses, at least, have come on the road against really good defenses -- New England, Minnesota, Denver. The Texans are back at home this week, where they're 4-0, with the offense scoring 8 TDs. And they're playing a defense that's below average across the board. Detroit's defense has allowed 20 touchdowns (almost 3 per week). So 2-3 touchdowns is the expectation for Houston this week, making it a middle-of-the-pack offense this time around. ... Brock Osweiler looks like a huge mistake -- a good backup that they're paying $18 million per year. He's not any better than the three other former Houston starters around the league (Brian Hoyer, Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick). He's not converting in enough key situations, and he's throwing too many interceptions. But for this week . . .
This report is taken from today's Week 8 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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he's at home, and he's playing against a pretty soft defense. Opponents have completed 74 percent against the Lions (who might be without their top cornerback this week). The Lions have allowed 18 TD passes, tied for last,. Including Kirk Cousins' rushing touchdown, every quarterback who's started against them has finished with at least 2 TDs. They've also averaged 284 passing yards. So as poorly as Osweiler has played, he'll likely pass for 260-plus yards and a couple of touchdowns in this game. Osweiler's three best games have come at home against lesser defenses -- 2 TDs each against Chicago, Indianapolis and Tennessee. Detroit's defense is even worse. ... DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller each have caught only 1 TD in their last five games, but they'll almost certainly combine for a touchdown or two in this game. They're talented guys with big-play potential, and this is the kind of defense they could shred (especially if Darius Slay sits out). Scheduling does matter, especially with a receiver like Fuller, who's dependent on getting downfield for big plays. In his three road games against great defenses, Fuller has averaged 19 receiving yards. In his three home games against lesser defenses, Fuller has averaged 97 yards, with 2 TDs (plus a punt return touchdown). It will be a surprise if at least one of these receivers doesn't put up top-10 numbers this week. With Fuller, they also use him some on kick returns. ... Houston's tight ends look surprisingly good. The Texans pretty much ignored that position last year, but they started using them pretty reliably about a month ago. C.J. Fiedorowicz has caught 19 passes and 2 TDs in his last four games. Ryan Griffin has caught 18 passes (no touchdowns) in his last five. And they're facing a defense that might be the worst against tight ends in the history of pro football. The Lions allowed 12 touchdowns to tight ends last year, and they've been even worse this season, allowing 7 TDs in seven games. Only two of the seven teams that have played Detroit have failed to throw a touchdown pass to a tight end. One was Washington on Sunday, but Vernon Davis had a big game, catching 6 passes for 79 yards and coming within a half yard of scoring a touchdown. We're putting Fiedorowicz and Griffin way higher than usual on our board (the only snag is that both have been pretty reliably involved in the offense). ... The Texans seem to have put Braxton Miller on the back burner for now. In the preseason he was going to be their slot receiver, maybe catching 50 balls and developing into a Randall Cobb type player. But Miller injured a hamstring and has hardly played in the last three games since coming back. Jaelen Strong seems to be the No. 3 receiver for now (but isn't playing much of a role either). ... Lamar Miller is running hard and doing pretty much everything the Texans expected when they signed him to be a big contract. He's averaging 83 rushing and 18 receiving yards per game. Here he'll work against a below-average run defense. But Miller suffered a shoulder injury on Monday night. He was able to return and play effectively, but the Texans also made extensive use of Alfred Blue. Both carried 11 times, and both averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry. With Miller being banged up, the Texans likely will use more of a one-two punch this week, with Blue getting 30-40 percent of the workload. (If Miller's shoulder proves to be more problematic and they want to sit him down for a week, than Blue would be a top-10 candidate as a fill-in.) The Lions rank 19th in run defense but have allowed only 2 rushing touchdowns all year (90 percent of the touchdowns allowed by this defense have come on passes). ... The Texans are at home and should win this game, so we're on board with Nick Novak as one of the top half-dozen kicking prospects. In his four home games this year (all wins), he's scored 11, 13, 9 and 8 points. ... The Texans Defense has an above-average pass rush this week. It has 16 sacks, while the Lions have allowed 18, for a combined total of 34 in 14 games -- 2.4 per game. But it doesn't look great for interceptions, in part because of injuries in its secondary. Houston has picked off only 3 passes, while Matthew Stafford has thrown only 4.