As we move into late October, the rematches are starting. We’ve got New England at Buffalo on Sunday, as well as the Chargers at the Broncos. When teams are meeting for a second time, does that favor the offense or the defense? And is any change statistically measurable?
Looking at the big picture, games inside the division tend to be lower scoring. I believe this is because defenses develop an immunity to what an offense likes to do. They figure out which players are threats to get open deep for long touchdowns, and how they do that. They figure out how to better handle scrambling quarterbacks.
I think.
If you look at the last 10 years, with 32 teams playing 16 games each, this shows up in the numbers.
Divisional games in the 2006-2015 seasons averaged 43.1 points. During same period, other games featured 45.1 points. That’s not a colossal difference, and results vary from team to team, but that’s almost a 5 percent difference, and that’s something.
We can also look at just those 960 games inside the division, seeing which teams scored more and fewer points. Turns out there that the rematch games tend to be a little lower scoring (43.7 points for the first game, and 42.5 for the rematch). Some of that can be attributed to weather, I suppose, but I think the greater share is due to coaches making offenses attack them in different ways.
Since 2006 there have been 28 games featured under 16 points of scoring. Thirteen of those games have been inside divisions (which is more than you would expect). And of those 13 inside-division games, nine were rematches (with 2 of the low-scoring games being from this year -- where we haven't seen the rematches yet).
For the two rematches this week, of course, the odds are heavily in favor of more offense. The Bills somehow won 16-0 at Foxboro earlier in the year, and the Chargers beat Denver just 21-13 two weeks ago. But the big-picture trend suggest more of these divisional rematches will be lower scoring.
Looking at the last 480 divisional series, 30 of them featured less scoring in the second game (249 to 219, with 12 games featuring the same point total).
| UNDER 16 POINTS SINCE 2006 | |
|---|---|
| Year | Score |
| 2007 | Steelers 3, Dolphins 0 |
| 2007 | Browns 8, Bills 0 |
| 2006 | Jaguars 9, Steelers 0 |
| 2009 | Browns 6, Bills 3 |
| 2010 | Packers 9, Jets 0 |
| 2011 | Browns 6, Seahawks 3 |
| 2006 | Bears 10, Jets 0 |
| 2010 | Lions 7, Packers 3 |
| 2011 | Chiefs 7, Broncos 3 |
| 2006 | 49ers 9, Vikings 3 |
| 2016 | • Rams 9, Seahawks 3 |
| 2016 | • Cardinals 6, Seahawks 6 |
| 2006 | Panthers 10, Falcons 3 |
| 2008 | Patriots 13, Bills 0 |
| 2008 | Redskins 10, Eagles 3 |
| 2008 | 49ers 10, Bills 3 |
| 2009 | • Cowboys 7, Redskins 6 |
| 2010 | Packers 10, Bears 3 |
| 2011 | Chiefs 10, Bears 3 |
| 2012 | Browns 7, Chargers 6 |
| 2012 | Jets 7, Cardinals 6 |
| 2015 | Chiefs 10, Chargers 3 |
| 2008 | Bengals 14, Browns 0 |
| 2006 | • Broncos 9, Chiefs 6 |
| 2006 | Panthers 15, Rams 0 |
| 2006 | Seahawks 9, Lions 6 |
| 2012 | Raiders 15, Chiefs 0 |
| 2012 | Ravens 9, Chiefs 6 |
—Ian Allan