The Steelers look like by far the weakest of the four offenses this weekend. They’ve been playing pretty well, winning nine in a row, so perhaps they can make this a competitive game. Maybe. But New England’s defense has developed into a solid group.

Like they almost always do, they’ve coached up their unheralded guys, with this jelling into a formidable unit. The Patriots have allowed only 22 touchdowns in their last 15 games. Only three of those opponents scored more than 17 points (giving up 25 at Buffalo, and 31 and 23 at home against Seattle and Baltimore). Pittsburgh, meanwhile, doesn’t tend to be nearly as good on the road. The Steelers offense scored 32 TDs in its nine home games this year, with at least 4 TDs in two thirds of those games. It’s scored only 18 TDs in nine on the road, with more than 2 TDs in only a third of those games. So my expectation is the Steelers are unlikely to score more than 2 TDs. If that’s not the number, it’s more likely to be just 1 TD rather than 3. The three other offenses playing this weekend, meanwhile, all look like safe choices to score 3-plus touchdowns. When the Steelers lost to New England 27-16 back in Week 7, they managed only a touchdown and three field goals. That was with Landry Jones at quarterback, of course, but the Steelers also struggled at Foxboro in the season opener last year. They had some success moving the ball between the 20s but didn’t score their second touchdown until the dying seconds.

QUARTERBACK: Ben Roethlisberger looks like the heavy favorite to be the 4th-best quarterback this week. A lot of NFL teams would love to have him, but he’s not on the level of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. And for 2016, Matt Ryan is doing a better job of hanging with the super-elite. With Roethlisberger, he gets hot at times, but struggles in some games in the red zone. He’s also not nearly as good away from Heinz Field – the most road-affected quarterback in the league, in fact. Strange to say, but take him away from Heinz Field, and Roethlisberger starts to look very similar to quarterbacks like Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton. Roethlisberger has averaged 269 yards in his last 25 games on the road, with 24 TD passes and 23 interceptions. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in only 20 percent of those games.

I cannot, of course, guarantee Roethlisberger will be a dud. While the Patriots are good defensively, they will give up some yards and production at times. Over 90 percent of the touchdowns allowed by this defense in its last 15 games have come on passes. And Roethlisberger can chuck it around. He’s thrown for 400 and 351 yards in his last two games at Foxboro. He had just the one garbage-time touchdown in Week 1 last year, but Darrius Heyward-Bey misplayed an easy touchdown catch in that game. In 2013, Roethlisberger ended up with 4 TDs in a 55-31 loss. Pittsburgh has scored 70 percent of its touchdowns on passes (35 of 50), so descent chance that all of their touchdowns in this game come through the air. I’m figuring about 265 yards and 1-2 TD passes for Roethlisberger, with just one touchdown a little more likely.

RUNNING BACK: Franco Harris and Jerome Bettis are both in the Hall of Fame. LeVeon Bell the last two weeks has played a lot better than either of those guys ever did. Stick him on the five Super Bowl teams those backs played for, and the Steelers still win all of those games. But put them on today’s Steelers, and the offense wouldn’t be nearly as good. Not that Bell will wind up in the Hall someday, but just saying. He’s gone over 165 rushing yards two weeks in a row, and that no doubt has gotten New England’s attention. The Patriots are a lot better defensively than either Miami or Kansas City. Both of those defenses rank in the bottom 10 against the run, while New England ranks 3rd. The Patriots are good against the run every year, in fact, and they also tend to make stopping the run inside the red zone a priority. Over the last three years (48 games), they’ve allowed 69 TD passes versus only 20 TD runs. That’s 1.44 TD passes versus .42 TD runs per game, which is about what I’m slotting the Steelers for. I’ve got Bell higher just out of respect for how well he’s been playing. In the earlier New England game (with no Roethlisberger) he carried 21 times for 81 yards, with another 68 yards on 10 catches. Bell was suspended for the 2015 opener, but DeAngelo Williams filled in and ran for 127 yards. The Patriots in that game were playing a lot of extra defensive backs, seemingly letting the Steelers run it at times. And in the blowout loss in 2013, Bell ran for 74 yards on 16 carries, with 65 yards on 4 receptions. So over 130 total yards for Pittsburgh’s starting tailback in all three of those games, but with the only rushing touchdown coming on a change-up 1-yard dive by Will Johnson. Bell averaged 157 total yards in his 12 regular-season starts, with 8 TDs. For this week, I’m figuring about 140 yards, with about a 50 percent chance of a touchdown. … Williams is the backup tailback, but he’s hardly getting on the field.

WIDE RECEIVER: If makes sense to project Antonio Brown lower than usual. He’s a great talent (probably the best wide receiver in the league) but the Steelers tend to put up much better numbers at home. With Roethlisberger at quarterback, Brown has scored 35 touchdowns in his last 30 games at home (that includes 3 TDs on punt returns). He has scored only 13 TDs in his last 30 on the road, where he has also averaged 22 fewer receiving yards per game. He’s still a handful. Brown has averaged 7 catches for 94 yards in those 30 road games. He went over 100 yards against a good secondary last week, salting away the win with a big catch late. And he’s caught 21 passes for 310 yards and 2 TDs in his last three against the Patriots. They’ve got some good defensive backs, but he’s a dynamic receiver who’s really hard to shut down. But given the way the Steelers tend to play on the road, my feeling is Brown looks like a very good receiver this week, rather than a guy who’ll probably take over the game. I’m expecting something like 6-7 catches, and 80-90 yards, with probably a 40-50 percent chance of a touchdown. That makes him maybe the best receiver on the board, but not the shoo-in No. 1 he’d be if the Steelers were playing at home against a lesser opponent. … Given the matchup, I’m slotting Eli Rogers a little lower than usual. But he’s playing well. He’s their slot guy, and there’s some trust there. He caught only 1 pass in the run-dominated game against Miami, but he’s caught 20 passes in his last four other games. He'll catch some short plunkers in the middle of the field. Just 3 TDs in 15 games, however, and he’s working mostly short routes; he averages 11.8 yards per reception. … The Steelers don’t have a viable third receiver. They’ve been rotating their other receivers, and those guys are mostly decoys. Darrius Heyward-Bey has the most experience, but he’s never had great hands or a much of a feel for running routes. He’s caught only 6 passes all year. Cobi Hamilton looks like an ordinary youngster with a limited future; he’s caught 14 passes and one touchdown in his last 10 games. DeMarcus Ayers has come on a little lately and looks like he might be a factor next year, but he’s only a month removed from being promoted off the practice squad. The Steelers seem to have given up on Sammie Coates, who’s been getting on the field for only 1-2 plays a game. Coates had a bunch of 40-plus yard catches early in the season, but it doesn’t look like they’re going to give him another shot to be that kind of a factor again.

TIGHT END: Jesse James is a nominal tight end. He doesn’t have much speed, and isn’t a big part of the passing game. He’s gone 13 games in a row without scoring. When he was their starting tight end in the first half of the season he averaged only 22 yards in eight games (over 31 yards in only one of those games). But he’s at least come on some lately. Ladarius Green has had issues with concussions, missing the last four games, so they’ve gone back to James as more of a receiving option. He caught 4 passes for 49 yards in Roethlisberger’s final start in the regular season, and he had his best game of the year at Kansas City, catching 5 passes for 83 yards. Green seems to have had some kind of setback in the concussion protocol; he didn’t practice at all last week. So it probably will be James at tight end. Considering how he’s played recently, 30-plus yards looks reasonable. If the Steelers can get Green on the field, he offers more mismatch ability downfield. He’s kind of their version of Jared Cook – a fast tight end without great hands. Green went over 65 yards in three of his last four games before being sidelined.

KICKER: Chris Boswell has kicked 6 field goals in each of his last two road games, which is very appealing. The Patriots let Nick Novak kick 3 field goals last week. But we’re still ranking Boswell as the worst of the four kickers. Pittsburgh’s offense is the most likely to struggle. Prior to these recent 18-point games, Boswell was averaging 5.3 points on the road. New England allowed only 86 kicking points in the regular season, tying for 2nd-fewest in the league.

—Ian Allan