I just finished the adjustments to the overall player board. They’ll be showing up in your email box soon (as well as on the web). But separate from that, I’ll give you the view from 10,000 feet – expectations for the overall offenses in the remaining games.
When I put these projections together, the players and teams are linked. That is, I don’t do a separate projection for Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Martellus Bennett. They’re all tied together – the combined receiving totals for all the Packers pass catchers has to add up to the team total. If I decide to add 10 yards per game to Nelson’s total, it needs to either come away from other players (or the team total must be increased by 10).
We try to keep it realistic. Each week we’re looking at the teams (offenses), trying to make sure the 1 thru 32 rankings make sense. And each week we’re checking/auditing the players inside each of those 32 rosters, double-checking that their share makes sense.
Each week, I’m trying to strike the right balance between reacting to what just occurred – you want to make changes and properly adjust and account for what is changing – while at the same time not overreacting (giving too much weight to an outlier game).
For scoring (offensive touchdowns) Indianapolis and Carolina are the teams that have been sneaking up. If Andrew Luck comes back in Week 7-8, the Colts could/should have an above-average offense in the second half of the season. And the Panthers come off a pair of solid games.
Teams ordered by how many touchdowns they would score in 16 games (if we started a new season tomorrow).
| PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| New England | 36.8 | 16.8 | 53.6 |
| Green Bay | 40.3 | 11.7 | 52.0 |
| New Orleans | 32.6 | 13.6 | 46.2 |
| Atlanta | 27.5 | 17.6 | 45.1 |
| Dallas | 28.8 | 16.0 | 44.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 31.0 | 13.4 | 44.5 |
| Kansas City | 26.4 | 17.0 | 43.4 |
| Tennessee | 24.8 | 16.8 | 41.6 |
| Philadelphia | 28.3 | 12.8 | 41.1 |
| Washington | 29.3 | 11.7 | 41.0 |
| Carolina | 27.5 | 12.8 | 40.3 |
| LA Rams | 24.6 | 15.7 | 40.3 |
| Indianapolis | 27.2 | 12.2 | 39.4 |
| Oakland | 27.7 | 11.4 | 39.0 |
| Houston | 23.2 | 15.2 | 38.4 |
| LA Chargers | 28.5 | 9.6 | 38.1 |
| Denver | 24.5 | 13.4 | 37.9 |
| Tampa Bay | 28.3 | 9.3 | 37.6 |
| Cincinnati | 25.6 | 10.9 | 36.5 |
| Seattle | 28.2 | 8.3 | 36.5 |
| Minnesota | 23.5 | 11.5 | 35.0 |
| Detroit | 27.5 | 7.4 | 34.9 |
| Jacksonville | 17.1 | 16.8 | 33.9 |
| Chicago | 17.9 | 15.2 | 33.1 |
| Buffalo | 18.4 | 14.1 | 32.5 |
| Arizona | 24.8 | 7.2 | 32.0 |
| Baltimore | 18.4 | 13.1 | 31.5 |
| Cleveland | 18.1 | 12.0 | 30.1 |
| NY Giants | 22.4 | 7.7 | 30.1 |
| San Francisco | 19.7 | 9.6 | 29.3 |
| Miami | 19.2 | 9.9 | 29.1 |
| NY Jets | 16.6 | 12.2 | 28.8 |
For rushing production, I’ve got three AFC South teams at the top. (This is using fantasy scoring – 1 point for every 10 yards, and 6 points for touchdowns).
I’ve got Arizona down at the bottom (don’t envision Adrian Peterson doing much for that offense).
| PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TD | Points |
| Jacksonville | 145 | 1.05 | 20.8 |
| Tennessee | 135 | 1.05 | 19.8 |
| Houston | 140 | .95 | 19.7 |
| Kansas City | 133 | 1.06 | 19.7 |
| Atlanta | 125 | 1.10 | 19.1 |
| Dallas | 130 | 1.00 | 19.0 |
| Denver | 134 | .84 | 18.4 |
| Chicago | 125 | .95 | 18.2 |
| New England | 112 | 1.05 | 17.5 |
| Baltimore | 125 | .82 | 17.4 |
| Philadelphia | 125 | .80 | 17.3 |
| Buffalo | 118 | .88 | 17.1 |
| LA Rams | 110 | .98 | 16.9 |
| Carolina | 112 | .80 | 16.0 |
| Indianapolis | 112 | .76 | 15.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 105 | .84 | 15.5 |
| Green Bay | 110 | .73 | 15.4 |
| Washington | 110 | .73 | 15.4 |
| New Orleans | 100 | .85 | 15.1 |
| NY Jets | 103 | .76 | 14.9 |
| Oakland | 105 | .71 | 14.8 |
| Cincinnati | 103 | .68 | 14.4 |
| Minnesota | 100 | .72 | 14.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 108 | .58 | 14.3 |
| Cleveland | 90 | .75 | 13.5 |
| NY Giants | 106 | .48 | 13.5 |
| San Francisco | 95 | .60 | 13.1 |
| Seattle | 95 | .52 | 12.6 |
| Miami | 85 | .62 | 12.2 |
| Detroit | 90 | .46 | 11.8 |
| LA Chargers | 80 | .60 | 11.6 |
| Arizona | 70 | .45 | 9.7 |
For passing production, I’ve the same three teams at the top that have been there all year – Patriots, Packers, Saints. Steelers still hanging onto the No. 4 spot, but they’ve dropped some with the growing uncertainty of whether they’ll be able to get that offense worked into top form.
Some pretty suspect teams at the bottom, with the Jaguars, Jets, Bills and Dolphins leading the way.
On these numbers, they’re ordered by fantasy production, using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards).
| PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TD | Points |
| New England | 315 | 2.30 | 45.3 |
| Green Bay | 285 | 2.52 | 43.6 |
| New Orleans | 295 | 2.04 | 41.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 270 | 1.94 | 38.6 |
| LA Chargers | 275 | 1.78 | 38.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 275 | 1.77 | 38.1 |
| Washington | 270 | 1.83 | 38.0 |
| Atlanta | 275 | 1.72 | 37.8 |
| Arizona | 280 | 1.55 | 37.3 |
| Indianapolis | 268 | 1.70 | 37.0 |
| Oakland | 258 | 1.73 | 36.2 |
| Philadelphia | 255 | 1.77 | 36.1 |
| Seattle | 255 | 1.76 | 36.1 |
| Carolina | 257 | 1.72 | 36.0 |
| Kansas City | 260 | 1.65 | 35.9 |
| LA Rams | 265 | 1.54 | 35.7 |
| Dallas | 248 | 1.80 | 35.6 |
| Detroit | 252 | 1.72 | 35.5 |
| Cincinnati | 255 | 1.60 | 35.1 |
| Minnesota | 250 | 1.47 | 33.8 |
| Denver | 232 | 1.53 | 32.4 |
| Tennessee | 230 | 1.55 | 32.3 |
| Houston | 230 | 1.45 | 31.7 |
| NY Giants | 225 | 1.40 | 30.9 |
| San Francisco | 230 | 1.23 | 30.4 |
| Cleveland | 232 | 1.13 | 30.0 |
| Chicago | 224 | 1.12 | 29.1 |
| Baltimore | 220 | 1.15 | 28.9 |
| Miami | 215 | 1.20 | 28.7 |
| Buffalo | 200 | 1.15 | 26.9 |
| NY Jets | 205 | 1.04 | 26.7 |
| Jacksonville | 180 | 1.07 | 24.4 |
—Ian Allan