I just finished up the revised individual player projections. They’ll be showing up at your computer soon. But as an appetizer, I will throw out my revised team projections. Players and offenses; the way I’ve got my stat model set up, they’re all tied together.
The projections at this time of year are different. Early in the year, I’m focused mostly on how good the offenses are – what they would do in typical matchups. Nowadays, scheduling plays a much larger role. We know (or think we know) what the offenses and defenses are all about, and projections are adjusted to account mainly for the four-five games that are sitting right in front of us.
Starting first with the scoring projections. Looking here at passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns (these don’t include scores on returns of kickoffs and turnovers). I’ve got per-game forecasts for each offense, and those are multiplied by 16 to turn them into per-season numbers.
On these per-season numbers, they don’t reflect where I think offenses will close the season. I’m not giving any offense credit for stuff that happened in the first 10 weeks of the season. Instead, this is what they would do if a new 16-game season was starting today (and they were repeating their next 4-5 games three or four times).
I’ve got the Saints, Patriots and Eagles as the three dominant offenses.
Pittsburgh has been disappointing, but with an easier schedule and more home games, I see that offense coming on.
|OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS (TOUCHDOWNS)|
For passing, I have New England, Seattle and Washington as the best three teams. On these rankings, you’re seeing average gross passing yards per game, and average TD passes per game. With “points” you’re looking at a fantasy translation, with 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 passing yards.
|TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS|
For rushing, I’m projecting Jacksonville, New Orleans and Carolina as the top 3 teams. On these rankings, you’re seeing average rushing yards per game, and average TD runs per game. With “points” you’re looking at a fantasy translation, with 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.
|TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS|