I will be surprised if Tom Brady isn’t the most productive passer this weekend. He’s really good, of course, and there’s also the dynamic of Tennessee tending to be a lot weaker against the pass. Of the 35 touchdowns allowed by this defense, all but 6 have come on pass plays.

During the regular season, only three defenses allowed fewer rushing yards than the Titans, but only six teams allowed more passing yards.

Brady, meanwhile, has been on this stage many times before. In his last 16 games at home in the playoffs (an NFL season’s worth of work) he’s averaged 273 passing yards, with 37 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

Brady is 13-3 in his last 16 home playoff games, and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in all but three of those games.

To me, I’m expecting 300-plus yards and 2-plus touchdowns.

2005Jac.W 28-356%20130
2006NYJW 37-1665%21220
2007Jac.W 31-2093%26230
2007S.D.W 21-1267%20923
2009Balt.L 14-3355%15423
2010NYJL 21-2864%29921
2011Den.W 45-1076%36361
2011Balt.W 23-2061%23902
2012Hou.W 41-2863%34430
2012Balt.L 13-2854%32012
2013Ind.W 43-2252%19800
2014Balt.W 35-3166%36731
2014Ind.W 45-766%22631
2015K.C.W 27-2067%30220
2016Hou.W 34-1647%28722
2016Pitt.W 36-1776%38430

—Ian Allan