Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Who will be this year's Kareem Hunt? Why less can be more with an auction. Is Jordan Howard headed for a breakout season? Can Dalvin Cook blow past an ACL repair? And more.
Question 1
You really nailed the RB position last year having Gurley, Hunt and Cook (before getting hurt) higher than most experts. Do you have any RB's at least a few spots higher than most experts this year?
Randy Newland (Villa Hills, KY)
Let’s see what happens in the next few weeks. I remember with Hunt and Cook, those guys moved up substantially last year after they looked really good in the preseason games (with Hunt, he was also elevated by the knee injury suffered by Spencer Ware). Alvin Kamara also broke some big runs in August last year; I didn’t move him up enough because the Saints still had Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram, and it looked like they were going to play a bunch. For now, I’ve got eight running backs ranked at least 4 spots higher than where they currently show in ADP. (This is PPR scoring, by the way). I’ve got four running backs at least 4 spots lower. My biggest outlier is James White. I believe he’ll catch 60-plus passes, so I’ve got him 24th (again, PPR scoring), while the ADP indicates he’s currently going 55th among running backs.
| Fantasy Index RB rankings | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | FFI | ADP | Diff |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| LeVeon Bell | 4 | 2 | -2 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 12 | 13 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 13 | 15 | 2 |
| Kenyan Drake | 14 | 21 | 7 |
| Alex Collins | 15 | 19 | 4 |
| • Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 12 | -4 |
| Jordan Howard | 17 | 14 | -3 |
| Lamar Miller | 18 | 23 | 5 |
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 18 | -1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| • Derrius Guice | 21 | 17 | -4 |
| Dion Lewis | 22 | 28 | 6 |
| Mark Ingram | 23 | 25 | 2 |
| James White | 24 | 55 | 31 |
| • LeSean McCoy | 25 | 16 | -9 |
| Tarik Cohen | 26 | 29 | 3 |
| Chris Thompson | 27 | 36 | 9 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 28 | 39 | 11 |
| C.J. Anderson | 29 | 38 | 9 |
| • Ronald Jones | 30 | 26 | -4 |
Question 2
I want to get your thoughts on Jordan Howard. He is one guy who I could really see making a push as a top 6-9 RB in a PPR format. Reports have been he is working on catching passes in camp and has improved. I know Tarik Cohen will steal some work but I can’t see much of it coming via running the ball which I think Howard excels at. Coaching is crucial when it comes to fantasy success and I think the addition of Matt Nagy helps Howard’s prospects tremendously. Howard has rushed for over 1,000 yards each of his first two years and both years the team has been terrible. This year with an improved offense I think Howard can really take off and be the Gurley/Hunt type of pick people are looking for.
Bill Copestick (Philadelphia, PA)
They say he’s improving as a pass catcher, but we’ll see. That might be an effort to help build his confidence. I know that on the field, he’s been terrible in that regard. Over the last two years he’s caught 52 passes but dropped 12 – the worst drop rate in the league. He dropped a goal-line pass against Atlanta that cost them a win in their home opener last year. He’s a good power runner who plays hard, but I wouldn’t be interested in even considering him as one of the first dozen running backs chosen in a PPR format right now.
Question 3
BY FAR your magazine is the best resource for knowledgeable "ballers" year in and year out. I've been using it for as long as I can remember and don't even consider other options (although I might skim through some from time to time). I've been in a 10-team, 3-keeper auction league for years now that uses a $100 budget. When I prepare each year for our auction your magazine only publishes a 12 team $200 auction, which makes it tough to project value for a $100 auction. Is it possible for you to include a $100 auction (with commentary) option in future issues? FYI, I have discovered your custom scoring system which does allow me to set auction amounts to $100. PS- for all you readers out there, nothing beats an auction draft!
Bryan Teegardin (Rochester, NY)
Thanks for the kind words. As luck would have it, Andy and I were talking about auctions two weeks ago. I have never liked the $200 format. I prefer the $100 version. It doesn’t seem like a big deal, but with $100, it puts more power in the hands of the nominator. Think about it. If the cap was $20 (with each team selecting 20 players) it wouldn’t even be an auction – it would be the same as a draft. If the cap was $10 million then there’s always the potential for somebody to come along and poach your pick at essentially no cost (there would be almost no difference between $1 and $2 in such a league). In a $100 league, if you nominate a kicker or defense outside the top 4 or a quarterback outside the top 20, you almost always will get said player. So if you would really like the No. 7 kicker or defense on your board, just be sure to nominated it before the last five rounds. With the $200 version, it turns into a cat-and-mouse game, where you often want the player but aren’t sure whether you can get him for $1 or $2. Often in the $200 leagues, I wonder if others are trying to steal my work. I nominated John Kelly for $1 in a recent auction, for example, because I already had purchased Todd Gurley. Another owner chimed in with a $2 bid; I suspect if I hadn’t mentioned Kelly he never would have been nominated at all. Anyway, this is something Andy and I have talked about, and I think you’ll see us switch to $100 in the magazine next year. It’s a better format. In favor of $200, I think more people use that total, and we’ve also been going with it for years.
Question 4
Your PPR rankings have Penny at 29, McKissic at 57, and Carson at 68. However, since the OTAs reports have been suggesting that Carson was their No. 1 RB. Now, he's playing with the first team at training camp, and reports are that he's expected to keep that role, barring injury. Any thoughts about reworking the rankings on Seattle rbs?
DAVID DIGREGORIO (Norristown, PA)
Yes. I need to tighten that up. I have verbalized the same kind of thinking a couple of times in the last few weeks. I don’t think there’s a ton of difference between Penny and Carson. Relative to where they’re being chosen, Carson is a much better selection than Penny. I like the idea of selecting Carson in the last few rounds a lot more than the idea of expecting Penny to put up starter-quality stats. The Seahawks selected Penny in the first round, but they’ll play the best guy. Right now, it looks like that might be Carson – he’s been around for a year, so he might have a better idea of what the pro game is about. And while McKissic popped a few plays last year, The Seattle Times reported last week that C.J. Prosise appears to be the frontrunner to be the team’s back of choice on third downs and in hurry-up situations.
Question 5
I am very high on Dalvin Cook this year based on his ADP. The injury is obviously the main issue and my concern is less about recovery (which I will evaluate in preseason) and more about re-occurrence. Another guy I think will have a big year along with injury concerns in Olsen. Your data always factors in injuries with an expected games played but how do you do that on a guy like Cook who has one season under his belt? Are there numbers on RBs recovering after ACL in the modern era? The first guy I remember was another Viking who came back like a beast.
Yaesha Newman ()
In this century, I believe there have been three running backs who underwent ACL surgeries, then came back the next year and ripped it up pretty good – Adrian Peterson in 2012, Jamaal Charles in 2012, and Jamal Lewis in 2002. It can be done. I make note of the numbers. According to my notes, there have been 15 running backs in the last 20 years who’ve run for over 1,000 yards, then suffered a major knee injury.
| Running Backs coming off ACL surgeries | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 1999 | Robert Edwards, N.E. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2000 | Jamal Anderson, Atl. | 16 | 282 | 1024 | 3.6 | 6 |
| 2000 | Terrell Davis, Den. | 5 | 78 | 282 | 3.6 | 2 |
| 2001 | Olandis Gary, Den. | 8 | 57 | 228 | 4.0 | 1 |
| 2002 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 14 | 277 | 989 | 3.6 | 3 |
| 2002 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 16 | 308 | 1327 | 4.3 | 7 |
| 2006 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 15 | 244 | 1057 | 4.3 | 11 |
| 2006 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| 2008 | Cadillac Williams | 6 | 63 | 233 | 3.7 | 4 |
| 2008 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 13 | 107 | 418 | 3.9 | 6 |
| 2008 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 16 | 214 | 916 | 4.3 | 10 |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 16 | 348 | 2097 | 6.0 | 13 |
| 2012 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 16 | 285 | 1509 | 5.3 | 6 |
| 2012 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 6 | 51 | 182 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 2016 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 3 | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 |
The overall track record on those guys, of course, isn’t great. But I don’t think the Dalvin Cook puzzle is best solved by trying to average other guys from previous years. These players and injuries aren’t the same, and doctors are probably better now than they were 10 years ago. With Cook, I will put a lot more weight in how he seems to be moving in the preseason games. I hear he’s been given the OK to practice and play without wearing a knee brace, which is a pretty awesome indicator.
Question 6
If you were in a snake draft and you were going to take a defense and a kicker with your last 2 picks, would you use the earlier pick on the K or the D?
Michael Vanoostveen (Niagara-On-The-Lake, ON)
I would instead look at the other backup players I would be selecting – running backs and wide receivers. Can I move one or two of those guys to the last two rounds? If so, then I can move kickers and defenses up two rounds, beating everyone to the punch at those positions. That’s generally the way I go. With the earlier of the picks, I would try to get a top-3 kicker or one of the top 2 defenses.
Question 7
16-team, yardage league. I can freeze two (Kamara and Dalvin Cook), and it takes my first two picks. I’ve been offered 4th- and 6th-round picks for Cook and I already have a 4th from a trade last year. If I make the trade then I have the option to freeze another from my roster (T.Hill or M.Thomas) or pick a player in round 2. Keep in mind with 16 teams there are a lot of the top RBs that will be froze. At best, Barkley or Gordon might be available. Otherwise looking at a possible No. 1 WR, but Brown will be froze. What do you think?
Josh Blain (Bardstown, KY)
Cook is supposedly coming along well. Knock on wood, he’ll stay healthy and be a top-10 back in the next few weeks. But I would make this deal in a nano-second. You’re giving up Cook, but you’re getting a quality player in return (either Hill, Thomas or a second-round draft pick) and you’re getting two other players of value (the 4th- and 6th-round draft pick). I don’t think the other owner has done the math properly. It’s a wildly lopsided trade, in my opinion, and I would expect other owners in your league would try to have it overturned.
Question 8
12 team vs 14 team leagues do values change on certain position? Is TE more valuable the deeper the league to grab one of the top 3?
Chris Winder (San Ramon, CA)
There will be some subtle shifting with overall rankings as you shift the baselines at the key positions – QB, RB, WR, TE. With tight ends, they can be like quarterbacks in that there isn’t as much demand. Teams tend to be starting 2-4 wide receivers but just one tight end, so there’s more potential to find one on the waiver wire during the season. Baltimore, for example, ranked 3rd in tight end receptions last year, and there’s a chance none of its tight ends will even be drafted – will be sitting there for the taking in mid-September. It’s a safe bet that Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Rob Gronkowski or Zach Ertz will miss some games, and there will be fill-in tight ends of some value when those injuries occur.
Question 9
Do you have any opinions around when a players bye week is? Gurley for example is in Week 12. For one that's usually a critical week in fantasy league standings. Also, if there were any type of injury where he would miss a game or two you still then have to worry about not having him in the Week 12. Just curious on if you factor that into a decision in picking a player. The flip side is he has no injuries, performs up to expectations, your fantasy team is in good shape and then he gets a break before the playoff weeks.
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
I don’t give bye weeks any weight when making selections (other than perhaps pushing me away from a reserve player in the late rounds because he shares the same bye with 2-3 players he’s supposed to be backing up). I do notice, however, that there are two weeks this year that have six teams off – Week 9 and Week 11. So if you draft players from those weeks, it makes it slightly harder to find a replacement.
Question 10
I was thinking of trading Antonio Brown (3 player keeper, standard scoring league). I was thinking of offering Brown for David Johnson and A.J. Green. Thoughts?
BARRY ST PETER (Pittsfield, MA)
It’s a bold move, because Brown is really good. But he’s also 30, and maybe better to get rid of him a year too early rather than a year too late. He plays his best ball when he was 26 and 27 years old, and I don’t think it’s realistic to expect him to get back to that kind of level. He’s probably right at that point where he transitions from being an out-of-this-world talent to being simply one of the five best receivers in the league. If you look at the top 40 seasons by wide receivers in the last 20 years, only three of those guys were older than 30. Three others were 30, and I’m looking at the ages at the end of the season. (Standard scoring on this chart.)
| TOP 40 RECEIVING SEASONS (last 20 years) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Age | No | Yards | TD | Points |
| 2007 | • Randy Moss, N.E. | 30 | 98 | 1,493 | 23 | 287.3 |
| 2003 | Randy Moss, Minn. | 26 | 111 | 1,632 | 17 | 267.0 |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 26 | 96 | 1,681 | 16 | 265.2 |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 26 | 129 | 1,698 | 14 | 261.1 |
| 2015 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 27 | 136 | 1,834 | 11 | 256.2 |
| 2001 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 29 | 109 | 1,524 | 15 | 242.7 |
| 2003 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 27 | 117 | 1,696 | 12 | 242.1 |
| 2002 | • Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 30 | 143 | 1,722 | 11 | 241.2 |
| 2015 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 26 | 136 | 1,871 | 9 | 241.1 |
| 1999 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 27 | 115 | 1,663 | 12 | 240.7 |
| 2001 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 28 | 93 | 1,412 | 16 | 239.3 |
| 2004 | • Muhsin Muhammad, Car. | 31 | 93 | 1,405 | 16 | 238.0 |
| 1998 | Randy Moss, Minn. | 21 | 68 | 1,313 | 17 | 237.7 |
| 2005 | Steve Smith Sr., Car. | 26 | 103 | 1,563 | 13 | 236.8 |
| 2000 | Randy Moss, Minn. | 23 | 77 | 1,437 | 15 | 236.2 |
| 2015 | • Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 31 | 109 | 1,502 | 14 | 234.2 |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 27 | 111 | 1,619 | 11 | 229.9 |
| 2014 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 29 | 98 | 1,519 | 13 | 229.9 |
| 1998 | Antonio Freeman, G.B. | 26 | 84 | 1,424 | 14 | 228.9 |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 26 | 88 | 1,320 | 16 | 228.0 |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 22 | 87 | 1,646 | 9 | 227.4 |
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 26 | 92 | 1,430 | 14 | 227.0 |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 27 | 122 | 1,964 | 5 | 226.4 |
| 2000 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 27 | 97 | 1,451 | 13 | 226.2 |
| 2007 | • Terrell Owens, Dall. | 34 | 81 | 1,355 | 15 | 226.0 |
| 2000 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 28 | 102 | 1,413 | 14 | 225.3 |
| 2002 | Hines Ward, Pitt. | 26 | 112 | 1,329 | 12 | 225.1 |
| 2007 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 24 | 80 | 1,289 | 16 | 224.9 |
| 2000 | • Rod Smith, Den. | 30 | 100 | 1,602 | 9 | 224.1 |
| 2015 | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 26 | 80 | 1,400 | 14 | 224.0 |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 23 | 96 | 1,450 | 13 | 223.3 |
| 1999 | Randy Moss, Minn. | 22 | 80 | 1,413 | 12 | 222.6 |
| 2002 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 29 | 100 | 1,300 | 14 | 221.9 |
| 2013 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 28 | 84 | 1,492 | 12 | 221.2 |
| 2015 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 23 | 111 | 1,521 | 11 | 220.1 |
| 2012 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 28 | 118 | 1,508 | 11 | 216.6 |
| 2011 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 26 | 68 | 1,263 | 15 | 216.3 |
| 2017 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 25 | 96 | 1,378 | 13 | 215.8 |
| 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 25 | 96 | 1,431 | 12 | 215.1 |
| 2011 | • Wes Welker, N.E. | 30 | 122 | 1,569 | 9 | 213.9 |
Question 11
I play in a strange IDP league that has some odd keeper rules. Without getting into the particulars, which IDP rookies should I target who you believe will make a full-time, significant impact this year?
John Klindworth (Richland, WA)
Typically with defensive players, you’re looking for tackles. There are a lot more tackles than sacks and takeaways. And middle linebackers tend to be the most heavily involved. There were three inside linebackers chosen in the first round, and I think that’s where you start. Roquan Smith has had some issues with his contract, but he’s remarkably talented – a No. 8 pick (by Chicago) who probably should have been chosen a lot earlier. The Bills will be using Tremaine Edmunds inside, and he should pile up a lot of tackles (Buffalo will be bad this year, and that might be a plus – that defense will be on the field a lot, creating more tackle opportunities). And Tennessee traded up to select Rashaan Evans 22nd.
Question 12
I am in an ESPN league, with 12 teams. This Year I have pick 5, 20, 29. As of this moment the top 4 are Bell, Gurley, Johnson, Elliott. I may have a shot at A.Brown, Hopkins or Kamara. After, Kamara the number of top backs falls completely off. Or do I take the best player at which could be Brown or Hopkins. Thoughts?
Jim Venettis (Farmington, MI)
Kamara is the No. 3 player on my board. This is PPR scoring, and he’ll catch a ton of balls – maybe 90-plus, the way that offense works. I’ve got him higher than David Johnson and LeVeon Bell. All of the other guys you mention are fine, but I would be a happy man if I were able to get Kamara with the 5th pick.
Question 13
In a dynasty league and Hunter Henry's injury has left me woefully thin at TE ... I drafted Mike Gesicki in the rookie draft and grabbed Vance MacDonald as well. Antonio Gates is available as are the likes of Geoff Swaim, Vernon Davis, Ed Dickson, Virgil Green and Clive Walford. A pretty sad group ... how do I plug this hole for a year until Henry is back?
Geoff Maleman (Los Angeles, CA)
Don’t panic. You’ll find somebody. Ed Dickson is definitely starting for Seattle. That might be a good place to start. I expect Gates will re-sign with the Chargers, though he’s more of just a red zone guy now (I think). Let’s also keep an eye on Michael Roberts of the Lions; he was a red zone monster at Toledo, catching 16 TDs in his final season. After a year of season, Roberts could be ready to emerge as a viable option.
Question 14
Taking over a team in a crazy 2QB league where QBs also get 1 point for every 20 yards. I’m having trouble trying to customize this league. TE and WR are combined into one group 1 point for every 12.5 yards. You must allocate 5 of your roster spots to RBs and they get 8 points for TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards. And it’s a PPR. I’ve attended the last three drafts and 11 QBs will go in the first round and 6 more in the second. And the 5th WR taken might be taken late third round. Any tips on strategy here?
Tavis Medrano (San Gabriel, CA)
You’ve attended three other drafts of this league, and that should help. Look at who was chosen about 100 players in those drafts. At about the 100-player mark, what’s the best you can do at QB, RB and WR-TE? At that point, how many of each group will be chosen? Use that information to set the supply-demand dynamics at the “custom rankings” section of the website. You’ll need to set up a custom-scoring profile at the website, then go into the “auction values” section of the website. (You may be drafting rather than bidding on players, but it’s in the auction area that the supply-demand setup info resides.). Not knowing the exact specs of your league, I would guess that about 36 quarterbacks will be chosen, with about 26 being worth more than a $1 minimum bid (that is, if you waited until pick #100, you might be able to get your #26 QB). At running back, maybe 65-70 being chosen and about 44 being worth more than $1. And with the WR-TE category, perhaps 75-80 being chosen, with about 50 being worth more than $1. Good luck.