Assuming Kyler Murray is indeed the first quarterback drafted on Thursday, what are the odds he'll be the best quarterback to come out of the draft? How about if he's No. 1 overall? I took a look at the last 20 years to find out the answer.

Just before that time period is one of the all-time examples of the possible difference between the first quarterback drafted (Peyton Manning) and the others (Ryan Leaf). Typically, things aren't so clear-cut.

From the last 20 years, I count only seven times where the first quarterback drafted is clearly the best. If you want to add Mayfield to the list, that's eight.

At least nine times, and possibly 10 if we want to say Carson Wentz is better than Jared Goff, some other quarterback from the draft turned out better. I don't think I'd get much argument on McNabb, Brady, Brees or Cutler, and I think most would agree that Roethlisberger/Rivers, Derek Carr/Garoppolo, and Mahomes/Watson are better than the guy selected first in those years.

Two times they were all terrible.

Fourteen times in those 20 years, quarterbacks were selected No. 1 overall. I've got those guys listed in bold. By my count, including Mayfield but not Goff, that quarterback was the best in the draft only seven times (50 percent).

Year1st QBOther notablesBest
2018Baker MayfieldDarnold, Allen, Rosen, JacksonToo soon, but promising for Mayfield
2017Mitchell TrubiskyMahomes, WatsonOthers look better
2016Jared GoffWentz, PrescottToo soon; Wentz probably best
2015Jameis WinstonMariotaWinston
2014Blake BortlesBridgewater, Carr, GaroppoloNot Bortles
2013EJ ManuelSmith, Glennon, BarkleyYikes
2012Andrew LuckGriffin, Tannehill, Wilson, Foles, CousinsLuck, but Wilson is close. Strong QB draft.
2011Cam NewtonDalton, KaepernickNewton
2010Sam BradfordTim Tebow, Colt McCoyBradford by default
2009Matthew StaffordSanchez, FreemanStafford
2008Matt RyanFlaccoRyan
2007JaMarcus RussellQuinn, Kolb, BeckDouble yikes
2006Vince YoungLeinart, CutlerCutler
2005Alex SmithRodgers, Orton, FitzpatrickRodgers
2004Eli ManningRivers, Roethlisberger? Roethlisberger or Rivers probably
2003Carson PalmerLeftwich, Boller, GrossmanPalmer
2002David CarrHarrington, McCown, GarrardMcCown or Garrard
2001Michael VickBreesBrees
2000Chad PenningtonBulger, BradyBrady
1999Tim CouchMcNabb, CulpepperMcNabb

Some subjectivity here, but seems (to me) to be about a 50-50 chance that Murray winds up as the best quarterback drafted this year.

On his behalf, it can be said that at least some of the quarterbacks who didn't turn out the best were still pretty good. Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Jared Goff. Add those guys to the eight who turned out the best and that's 12 of 20 who were pretty good NFL players -- and 11 of the 14 drafted No. 1 overall.

Looked at in that way, you start to feel a little better about Murray's prospects of being successful NFL quarterback. Only three absolute bust quarterbacks at No. 1, and all drafted more than 10 years ago (Couch, Carr and Russell). Promising.

--Andy Richardson