We’re a quarter of the way through the season. A good time to take a more focused look at strength of schedule.

Using the win-loss records of teams so far, the Bills, Browns, Steelers and Jets project to play the easiest schedules the rest of the way. The Bears, Broncos, Packers and Falcons project to play the hardest schedules.

It looks something like this …

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RECORDS (Weeks 5-17)
TeamWLTPct
Buffalo16310.340
Cleveland17291.372
Pittsburgh18281.394
NY Jets21310.404
Miami19270.413
New England20270.426
Jacksonville20270.426
Cincinnati20261.436
Indianapolis22260.458
NY Giants21242.468
Baltimore22240.478
New Orleans22241.479
Oakland22241.479
San Francisco25252.500
LA Rams22222.500
Tampa Bay23232.500
Kansas City24240.500
Detroit25230.521
LA Chargers25230.521
Houston25230.521
Philadelphia25220.532
Carolina25220.532
Tennessee26220.542
Seattle25201.554
Minnesota26202.563
Dallas26201.564
Arizona26200.565
Washington26191.576
Atlanta27191.585
Green Bay27182.596
Denver29181.615
Chicago30162.646

Of course, with teams having played only four games each, numbers are rough. I think all teams would much rather play the 0-4 Dolphins rather than the 0-4 Broncos. So it’s reasonable to use not actual win-loss records but what you think the team might appropriate finish with if playing an average season.

That’s a matter of opinion, of course, but to me, the teams look something like this …

ESTIMATED STRENGTH OF TEAMS
TeamWLTPct
New England1420.875
Kansas City1321.844
Philadelphia1051.656
Dallas1060.625
New Orleans1060.625
Green Bay1060.625
LA Rams1060.625
San Francisco961.594
Seattle961.594
Cleveland970.563
Tampa Bay970.563
Houston970.563
Baltimore970.563
Chicago970.563
Carolina871.531
Indianapolis871.531
LA Chargers871.531
Detroit871.531
Buffalo880.500
Minnesota880.500
Pittsburgh781.469
Jacksonville781.469
Tennessee781.469
Atlanta691.406
Oakland6100.375
NY Jets6100.375
NY Giants5101.344
Denver5110.313
Arizona4111.281
Cincinnati4120.250
Washington3130.188
Miami1150.063

If we take those strength estimates and cross-merge them with the schedule, we get adjusted numbers for each team.

We still get those same four with the easiest schedules – Jets, Bills, Browns, Steelers. The Patriots show up 5th. The Bears, Browns, Falcons and Seahawks project to have the hardest schedules.

The witch doctor numbers look like this …

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, ESTIMATED (Weeks 5-17)
TeamWLTPct
NY Jets851194.418
Buffalo821073.435
Cleveland811065.435
Pittsburgh851043.451
New England871023.461
Philadelphia881013.466
Miami881004.469
Jacksonville89976.479
Detroit92991.482
Cincinnati91983.482
LA Rams89958.484
New Orleans90939.492
NY Giants93954.495
Indianapolis92946.495
San Francisco1011016.500
Tampa Bay92919.503
Oakland94926.505
Carolina94917.508
Baltimore96924.510
LA Chargers96915.513
Green Bay95907.513
Kansas City97914.516
Washington97905.518
Arizona97896.521
Minnesota98877.529
Tennessee100875.534
Houston99867.534
Dallas101874.536
Seattle101856.542
Atlanta102846.547
Denver105807.565
Chicago106806.568

We can also take the estimated strength numbers and cycle them through what’s already happened. Those numbers show that the Cowboys, Patriots, Seahawks and Bears thus far have played the league’s easiest schedules.

The Dolphins, Jets, Saints, Lions and Steelers have so far played the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, ESTIMATED (Weeks 1-4)
TeamWLTPct
Dallas19441.305
New England22411.352
Seattle25372.406
Chicago26380.406
LA Chargers26362.422
San Francisco20271.427
Philadelphia27352.438
Baltimore27352.438
Indianapolis27343.445
Buffalo29341.461
NY Giants30340.469
Kansas City30322.484
Tennessee30313.492
Minnesota31321.492
Cleveland32311.508
Carolina32311.508
Green Bay32311.508
Denver32311.508
Tampa Bay32293.523
Cincinnati33283.539
Houston33283.539
Atlanta33283.539
Jacksonville34282.547
Oakland34282.547
Washington34282.547
Arizona34273.555
LA Rams36271.570
Pittsburgh36262.578
Detroit35254.578
New Orleans38251.602
NY Jets31170.646
Miami41221.648

—Ian Allan