Is Dawson Knox a breakout candidate at tight end? He’s shown some ability to get downfield for big plays, but he dropped too many passes as a rookie.
The measurables are there. He ran a 4.54 prior to being picked in the third round, and he’s got a 34-inch vertical jump. Athletically, he’s an above-average tight end.
And there’s been some production. He averaged 13.9 yards on his 28 catches as a rookie. I remember him motoring downfield for a 33-yard catch at the end of the first half in a game in December at New England – originally called a touchdown, but after review they put it on the 1.
But the Bills have a lesser passing game. They were a bit better last year, but still averaged a modest 217 passing yards per game – a bottom-10 number. I don’t think they’re particularly likely to move out of the bottom 10 this year, so I don’t see Knox having a ton of upside potential.
And Knox dropped way too many passes. He managed to drop 10 passes in his first season while catching only 28 balls. Looking at just guys with at least 20 catchable passes, that’s the worst drop rate of anybody in the last seven years (I don’t have the numbers for prior to 2012).
| 40 WORST DROP RATES SINCE 2012 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pos | Player | Rec | Drop | Pct |
| 2019 | TE | Dawson Knox, Buff. | 28 | 10 | 26.3% |
| 2014 | RB | Alfred Morris, Was. | 17 | 6 | 26.1% |
| 2016 | TE | Demetrius Harris, K.C. | 17 | 6 | 26.1% |
| 2018 | WR | John Ross, Cin. | 21 | 7 | 25.0% |
| 2019 | TE | Demetrius Harris, Cle. | 15 | 5 | 25.0% |
| 2015 | RB | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 22 | 7 | 24.1% |
| 2019 | WR | Jarius Wright, Car. | 28 | 8 | 22.2% |
| 2019 | WR | John Ross, Cin. | 28 | 8 | 22.2% |
| 2014 | WR | Victor Cruz, NYG | 23 | 6 | 20.7% |
| 2016 | RB | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 29 | 7 | 19.4% |
| 2013 | RB | Fozzy Whittaker, Cle. | 21 | 5 | 19.2% |
| 2017 | RB | Matt Breida, S.F. | 21 | 5 | 19.2% |
| 2016 | WR | Sammie Coates, Pitt. | 21 | 5 | 19.2% |
| 2019 | WR | Ted Ginn, N.O. | 30 | 7 | 18.9% |
| 2015 | WR | Leonard Hankerson, Atl. | 26 | 6 | 18.8% |
| 2015 | WR | Ted Ginn, Car. | 44 | 10 | 18.5% |
| 2013 | WR | Keshawn Martin, Hou. | 22 | 5 | 18.5% |
| 2015 | WR | Quincy Enunwa, NYJ | 22 | 5 | 18.5% |
| 2019 | RB | Todd Gurley, LAR | 31 | 7 | 18.4% |
| 2014 | WR | Andre Roberts, Was. | 36 | 8 | 18.2% |
| 2013 | WR | Kenbrell Thompkins, N.E. | 32 | 7 | 17.9% |
| 2017 | RB | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 23 | 5 | 17.9% |
| 2013 | WR | Davone Bess, Cle. | 42 | 9 | 17.6% |
| 2018 | RB | Elijah McGuire, NYJ | 19 | 4 | 17.4% |
| 2016 | WR | Joshua Bellamy, Chi. | 19 | 4 | 17.4% |
| 2014 | TE | Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 29 | 6 | 17.1% |
| 2013 | WR | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ind. | 29 | 6 | 17.1% |
| 2012 | TE | Delanie Walker, S.F. | 39 | 8 | 17.0% |
| 2015 | TE | Vance McDonald, S.F. | 30 | 6 | 16.7% |
| 2015 | RB | Ryan Mathews, Phil. | 20 | 4 | 16.7% |
| 2014 | WR | Louis Murphy, T.B. | 31 | 6 | 16.2% |
| 2014 | TE | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 26 | 5 | 16.1% |
| 2015 | TE | Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B. | 21 | 4 | 16.0% |
| 2013 | WR | Aaron Dobson, N.E. | 37 | 7 | 15.9% |
| 2017 | WR | Ricardo Louis, Cle. | 27 | 5 | 15.6% |
| 2014 | RB | Lamar Miller, Mia. | 38 | 7 | 15.6% |
| 2018 | WR | Keelan Cole, Jac. | 38 | 7 | 15.6% |
| 2013 | RB | Arian Foster, Hou. | 22 | 4 | 15.4% |
| 2014 | TE | Luke Willson, Sea. | 22 | 4 | 15.4% |
| 2015 | WR | Martavis Bryant, Pitt. | 50 | 9 | 15.3% |
Maybe they get the drop fixed (or partially fixed) and Knox develops into something, but he’s got a limited background at the position. After showing up at Ole Miss as a quarterback, he caught only 39 passes there.
And drops aren’t easy to correct. Vance McDonald, Eric Ebron and Demetrius Harris come to mind as tight ends who’ve had ball-catching issues, and they’ve never really been able to solve them. (Harris was recently released by the Browns after another dropped-plagued season – he shows up on the list above.)
To me, Knox makes sense as a second tight end in typical fantasy leagues. I’m pretty confident he’s not going to develop into a top-10 option in 2020.
—Ian Allan