Will there be a market for Philip Rivers when free agency opens up next week? (That is, if the NFL stays on schedule – they might up to push things back, with the coronavirus situation.)
Rivers has slipped, with his lack of mobility and declining arm strength leading to too many turnovers. With no ability to move, he really struggles when opponents can generate a good pass rush.
For fantasy purposes, his lack of mobility is a big strike against him. Rushing production is typically worth about twice as much in most fantasy scoring systems, so when he’s not running for 100 yards and a couple of touchdowns each year, it tends to cost him relative to other passers.
Consider, for example, the 26 quarterbacks who have started at least half the time over the last five years. Rivers ranks 5th in average passing production, at 283 yards per game, with an average of 29 touchdowns per season. Using 4 for TDs and 1 for every 20 passing yards, that’s 21.6 points per game – just behind Tom Brady and Matt Ryan.
| PASSING PRODUCTION PER GAME (last 5 years) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Pass | TDP | FPG |
| Drew Brees | 73 | 293 | 2.07 | 22.9 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 58 | 295 | 1.88 | 22.8 |
| Tom Brady | 76 | 280 | 1.96 | 22.0 |
| Matt Ryan | 79 | 291 | 1.77 | 21.8 |
| Philip Rivers | 80 | 283 | 1.81 | 21.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 71 | 259 | 1.94 | 21.0 |
| Jameis Winston | 70 | 277 | 1.69 | 20.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | 72 | 268 | 1.74 | 20.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | 79 | 267 | 1.73 | 20.4 |
| Russell Wilson | 80 | 247 | 1.94 | 20.2 |
| Carson Wentz | 56 | 253 | 1.73 | 19.9 |
| Jared Goff | 54 | 263 | 1.61 | 19.7 |
| Eli Manning | 67 | 258 | 1.60 | 19.4 |
| Derek Carr | 78 | 250 | 1.56 | 19.0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 50 | 252 | 1.58 | 19.0 |
| Blake Bortles | 60 | 245 | 1.53 | 18.6 |
| Dak Prescott | 64 | 247 | 1.52 | 18.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 50 | 236 | 1.64 | 18.5 |
| Andy Dalton | 69 | 244 | 1.52 | 18.3 |
| Cam Newton | 63 | 232 | 1.59 | 18.1 |
| Joe Flacco | 59 | 246 | 1.19 | 17.3 |
| Alex Smith | 56 | 236 | 1.27 | 17.0 |
| Case Keenum | 52 | 228 | 1.19 | 16.2 |
| Marcus Mariota | 61 | 214 | 1.25 | 15.8 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 41 | 209 | 1.17 | 15.4 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 46 | 199 | 1.13 | 14.6 |
But factor in rushing production, and Rivers drops from 5th down to 12th – barely above average. He’s averaged only 1 rushing yard in his last 80 games, with no TD runs. Rivers hasn’t run for any touchdowns in 139 straight games, the longest such streak in NFL history.
With his limited rushing production, Rivers has averaged fewer fantasy points (per start) than eight other quarterbacks who haven’t been as productive as passers, including Newton, Wilson, Rodgers, Winston, Prescott, Cousins and Bortles.
That’s using traditional scoring – same as above, only with 1 point for every 10 rushing yards and 6 points for rushing touchdowns.
| QUARTERBACKS PER GAME (last 5 years) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | FPG |
| Cam Newton | 63 | 232 | 1.59 | 35 | .40 | 24.0 |
| Drew Brees | 73 | 293 | 2.07 | 1 | .14 | 23.9 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 58 | 295 | 1.88 | 3 | .07 | 23.6 |
| Russell Wilson | 80 | 247 | 1.94 | 26 | .11 | 23.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 71 | 259 | 1.94 | 18 | .11 | 23.5 |
| Jameis Winston | 70 | 277 | 1.69 | 15 | .14 | 23.2 |
| Matt Ryan | 79 | 291 | 1.77 | 8 | .06 | 22.9 |
| Tom Brady | 76 | 280 | 1.96 | 3 | .11 | 22.9 |
| Dak Prescott | 64 | 247 | 1.52 | 19 | .33 | 22.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | 79 | 267 | 1.73 | 6 | .19 | 22.2 |
| Blake Bortles | 60 | 245 | 1.53 | 22 | .15 | 21.7 |
| Philip Rivers | 80 | 283 | 1.81 | 1 | .00 | 21.7 |
| Carson Wentz | 56 | 253 | 1.73 | 14 | .05 | 21.6 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 50 | 252 | 1.58 | 16 | .16 | 21.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | 72 | 268 | 1.74 | 8 | .04 | 21.5 |
| Jared Goff | 54 | 263 | 1.61 | 4 | .11 | 20.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 50 | 236 | 1.64 | 13 | .14 | 20.6 |
| Andy Dalton | 69 | 244 | 1.52 | 9 | .16 | 20.2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 46 | 199 | 1.13 | 36 | .30 | 20.0 |
| Alex Smith | 56 | 236 | 1.27 | 21 | .16 | 20.0 |
| Derek Carr | 78 | 250 | 1.56 | 5 | .04 | 19.7 |
| Eli Manning | 67 | 258 | 1.60 | 2 | .03 | 19.7 |
| Marcus Mariota | 61 | 214 | 1.25 | 22 | .20 | 19.2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 41 | 209 | 1.17 | 21 | .17 | 18.5 |
| Joe Flacco | 59 | 246 | 1.19 | 3 | .10 | 18.3 |
| Case Keenum | 52 | 228 | 1.19 | 6 | .08 | 17.2 |
Fit will matter with Rivers. If he winds up starting for Colts, I will have some interest. But I’m not positive there will be a team that wants to commit to him as its opening day starter.
—Ian Allan