John Harbaugh was asked about Justice Hill, the Oklahoma State running back the Ravens drafted in the fourth round a year ago. Harbaugh said he expects Hill to make a big jump in 2020, calling four running backs "a good problem to have." Maybe for the Ravens, probably not for fantasy teams.
When I'm not busy arguing about the early selection of Jonathan Taylor in fantasy drafts I'm seeing so far, I guess I'll complain about the early selection of J.K. Dobbins. He's been going off the board in the fourth or fifth round -- seriously -- of FFPC drafts. For a guy who's likely to be the No. 3 running back in Baltimore, that's crazy talk.
But if you ask Harbaugh, all four running backs -- Mark Ingram (pictured), Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins and Justice Hill -- will be involved. "There's roles there for those guys," he says. This on a team whose quarterback just an NFL record for quarterback rushing, mind you.
I took a look at the last five years of Harbaugh's Ravens. Not only did the No. 4 running back not do anything at all, the No. 3 running back didn't either.
Baltimore's top 4 running backs (rushing attempts) from each of the last five years are shown below. I took the liberty of deleting the quarterbacks, so we don't have to see either Lamar Jackson's rushing record or Joe Flacco carrying 25 times for 54 yards. On each of those five teams, the No. 3 and 4 running backs are shown in bold.
| RAVENS TOP-4 RUNNING BACKS, 2015-PRESENT | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yds | No | Rec | TD |
| 2019 | Mark Ingram | 202 | 1018 | 26 | 247 | 15 |
| 2019 | Gus Edwards | 133 | 711 | 7 | 45 | 2 |
| 2019 | Justice Hill | 58 | 225 | 8 | 70 | 2 |
| 2019 | De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Gus Edwards | 137 | 718 | 2 | 20 | 2 |
| 2018 | Alex Collins | 114 | 411 | 15 | 105 | 8 |
| 2018 | Kenneth Dixon | 60 | 333 | 6 | 51 | 2 |
| 2018 | Javorius Allen | 41 | 110 | 35 | 196 | 5 |
| 2017 | Alex Collins | 212 | 973 | 23 | 187 | 6 |
| 2017 | Javorius Allen | 153 | 591 | 46 | 250 | 6 |
| 2017 | Terrance West | 39 | 138 | 2 | 23 | 2 |
| 2017 | Danny Woodhead | 14 | 56 | 33 | 200 | 0 |
| 2016 | Terrance West | 193 | 774 | 34 | 236 | 6 |
| 2016 | Kenneth Dixon | 88 | 382 | 30 | 162 | 3 |
| 2016 | Justin Forsett | 31 | 98 | 11 | 36 | 0 |
| 2016 | Javorius Allen | 9 | 34 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| 2015 | Justin Forsett | 151 | 641 | 31 | 153 | 2 |
| 2015 | Javorius Allen | 137 | 514 | 45 | 353 | 3 |
| 2015 | Terrance West | 46 | 180 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| 2015 | Lorenzo Taliaferro | 13 | 47 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
Over the last five years, Baltimore's No. 3 running back had no more than 60 rushing attempts. The team's top No. 4 running back had 41 attempts. Add in receptions, and you're still looking at an average of 4-5 touches per game for the best of these No. 3 and 4 running backs.
Baltimore is a great running team -- probably the league's best this year, maybe even if you leave Jackson out of it. But I think Ingram is starting and Edwards will at least open as the No. 2. Dobbins maybe mixes in as the No. 3. But that doesn't make him a guy to draft in the first five rounds of a fantasy league, and it makes Harbaugh's talk about Hill taking a big leap basically valueless.
Buy if you want, but tread carefully.
--Andy Richardson