T.J. Hockenson had a lackluster rookie season, but I’m not giving up on him. He plays a position where guys are far more likely to break out in their second season.

The first year was pretty meager. Hockenson started the season with 6 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown at Arizona, but he caught only 26 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown in his remaining 11 games.

But I expect he’ll take a nice step forward this year. I think he’ll be more comfortable mentally, and that the Lions will look for him to do more. And that’s pretty common at the tight end position.

With tight ends, only four rookies in the last 20 years have put up top-10 numbers. Only 13 (including those four) have finished with top-15 numbers. (This is using PPR scoring).

But if you look at second-year guys, the hit rate goes way up. In the last 20 years, 21 tight ends have put up top-10 numbers – five times as many. And 42 (those 21, plus another 21) have at least finished with top-15 numbers. That’s almost four times as many.

While Hockenson hasn’t done much yet, I think he looks like a pretty safe choice for at least top-15 numbers. Other second-year tight ends I would put in that group: Noah Fant and Jace Sternberger. Irv Smith, Dawson Knox and Josh Oliver are in the second-year tight end group, but I think they’re another level down.

On the chart here, I've got the rookies tagged with black dots. All of the other guys are players in their second season.

1ST- & 2ND-YEAR TIGHT ENDS WITH TOP-15 NUMBERS
YearPlayerRecYdsAvgTDPPRRk
2011Rob Gronkowski, N.E.901,32714.718330.91
2011Jimmy Graham, N.O.991,31013.211296.02
2018George Kittle, S.F.881,37715.75258.73
2004Antonio Gates, S.D.8196411.913255.42
2004Jason Witten, Dall.8798011.36223.03
2011Aaron Hernandez, N.E.7991011.57216.53
2019Mark Andrews, Balt.6485213.310209.25
2002Todd Heap, Balt.6883612.36193.41
2005Chris Cooley, Was.7177410.97190.44
2014Travis Kelce, K.C.6786212.96189.26
2002• Jeremy Shockey, NYG7489412.12175.43
2017• Evan Engram, NYG6472211.36173.65
2010Brandon Pettigrew, Det.7172210.24167.28
2014Larry Donnell, NYG636239.96161.312
2015Richard Rodgers, G.B.585108.88160.111
2012Kyle Rudolph, Min.534939.39158.311
2007Owen Daniels, Hou.6376812.23157.87
2010• Rob Gronkowski, N.E.4254613.010156.611
2009Jermichael Finley, G.B.5567612.35152.612
2011Jermaine Gresham, Cin.5659610.66151.614
2009John Carlson, Sea.5157411.37150.413
2019Dallas Goedert, Phil.5860710.55148.710
2008• John Carlson, Sea.5562711.45147.77
2014Zach Ertz, Phil.5870212.13146.213
2018David Njoku, Cle.5663911.44143.99
2010• Aaron Hernandez, N.E.4556312.56142.014
2008Greg Olsen, Chi.5457410.65141.49
2013• Tim Wright, T.B.5457110.65141.313
2013Coby Fleener, Ind.5260811.74140.814
2008Zach Miller, Oak.5677813.91139.810
2019Mike Gesicki, Mia.5157011.25138.012
2009Fred Davis, Was.4850910.66134.915
2007Tony Scheffler, Den.4954911.25133.911
2005Ben Troupe, Ten.555309.64132.010
2015Eric Ebron, Det.4753711.45130.713
2007Vernon Davis, S.F.525099.84126.912
2017Hunter Henry, LAC4557912.94126.914
2003Randy McMichael, Mia.4959812.23126.84
2018Evan Engram, NYG4557712.83126.313
2001Bubba Franks, G.B.363228.99122.28
2005• Heath Miller, Pitt.3945911.86120.914
2018O.J. Howard, T.B.3456516.65120.515
2008• Dustin Keller, NYJ4853511.23119.514
2003Jeremy Shockey, NYG4853511.22113.59
2019• Noah Fant, Den.4056214.13113.015
2002• Randy McMichael, Mia.3948512.44112.39
2002Alge Crumpler, Atl.3645512.65111.510
2004• Chris Cooley, Was.373148.56104.412
2006Heath Miller, Pitt.3439311.65103.313
2003Daniel Graham, N.E.3840910.84102.913
2004L.J. Smith, Phil.3437711.15101.713
2006• Owen Daniels, Hou.3435210.4599.214
2001Anthony Becht, NYJ363218.9598.113
2004Dallas Clark, Ind.2542316.9597.315
2001• Eric Johnson, S.F.403629.1396.215

—Ian Allan