If specialized strength of schedule means anything, then the Bears and Panthers should get some advantage this year for passing production.
Chicago’s 16 games are against teams that allowed (on average) 267 passing yards and 1.63 TD passes per game. (If you prefer to think in season-long totals, rather than per game, 1.63 TDs translates into 26 touchdowns in 16 games.) Those are the kind of numbers you like to see if you’re considering selecting guys like Allen Robinson (pictured).
The Panthers will face opponents that allowed slightly more touchdown passes last year (1.68 per game) but with 5 fewer yards.
If we use 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 yards, the five easiest schedules project to belong to the Panthers and the four teams in the NFC North – Bears, Packers, Lions, Vikings.
The hardest schedules (for passing) project to belong to the non-Patriots teams in the AFC East (Dolphins, Jets, Bills), and with the Raiders, Cardinals and Texans.
With Miami, its opponents last year allowed only 239 passing yards and 1.37 touchdowns (just under 22 per season). That’s powered by playing two games against New England.
With all of these numbers, I’m not saying it’s what should be expected from team. I’m definitely not suggesting the Bears will average 267 passing yards. It’s just a statement of fact: that’s how many yards and touchdowns (on average) their opponents allowed last year. And if defenses play similarly this year (which won’t happen for many teams) than the Bears, Panthers and Packers might finish with slightly better passing production than expected.
|SOS: PASSING (Weeks 1-17)|
Most fantasy leagues, of course, are done before Week 17 rolls around. If we leave out the final game for each team, the results change slightly. But I still see the Bears, Panthers and Packers with the easier pass schedules, and the Dolphins still with the worst.
|SOS: PASSING (Weeks 1-16)|