Do rookie receivers -- even really good ones -- need some time to adjust to the pros? Looking at the last 10 years, there haven't been very many who've been able to step in an excel right away.
Who's planning on selecting Tavon Austin? I'm in that boat; I've selected two teams so far, and he's on both of them.
But the track record for rookie receivers, even franchise-type guys, isn't very good.
In the last 10 years, there have been 15 selected with top-10 picks. Only two of those guys were really good right out of the gate -- A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Five others had some value (guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Roy Williams).
But the majority of top-10 rookie receivers (8 of 15) were essentially washouts in their first year. So if you were to play off those numbers, they would suggest you should shy away from Austin for at least this year.
Every player is different, of course. None of those other 15 guys are slot receivers like Austin. None of them ever RAN for over 300 yards in a game (like Austin did last year against Oklahoma). I think the Rams will make Austin their key guy and pump him a lot of balls.
| RECEIVERS PICKED IN THE TOP 10, 2003- | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | No | Rec | TD | |
| 2003 | Andre Johnson | 66 | 976 | 4 |
| 2003 | Charles Rogers | 22 | 243 | 3 |
| 2004 | Roy Williams | 54 | 817 | 8 |
| 2004 | Larry Fitzgerald | 58 | 780 | 8 |
| 2004 | Reggie Williams | 27 | 268 | 1 |
| 2005 | Braylon Edwards | 32 | 512 | 3 |
| 2005 | Troy Williamson | 24 | 372 | 2 |
| 2005 | Mike Williams | 29 | 350 | 1 |
| 2007 | Calvin Johnson | 48 | 756 | 5 |
| 2007 | Ted Ginn, Jr. | 34 | 420 | 3 |
| 2009 | Michael Crabtree | 48 | 625 | 2 |
| 2009 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 9 | 124 | 1 |
| 2011 | A.J. Green | 65 | 1057 | 7 |
| 2011 | Julio Jones | 54 | 959 | 8 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon | 64 | 865 | 5 |
| 2013 | Tavon Austin | ? | ? | ? |
--Ian Allan