Ian Allan answers your fantasy football queries. Special jumbo edition. What to expect from the new kickoff rules. Kyren Williams ain't done yet. Draft lotteries. Bhayshul Tuten's declining value. And much, much more.
Question 1
How much of your Kyren Williams projection is tied to Stafford being the starting QB for the Rams? I agree with the love FI is giving Williams, but I'm finding myself uneasy about Williams' overall numbers (he's somewhat TD-reliant in PPR leagues) given the health uncertainty surrounding Stafford.
Adam Rich (Oshkosh, WI)
I remember Stafford not playing all that well late last year, passing for fewer than 190 yards in four of his last five games. Williams was doing just fine at that time – carrying the team’s offense.
Question 2
I've been playing Fantasy Football since 1990 (and using your magazine almost as long) and we've added a wrinkle – we will award yardage bonuses on return yards, both kickoffs and punts. 1 point per 10 yards (or fraction thereof). Do you guys even track who the returners are for each team? And how does the impact say a 3rd WR who also returns punts? Does he bump up from 11th round to 8th? Will kick returns increase this year? Basically how do I incorporate this into my draft strategy? And can we get Devin Hester to turn in his HOF blazer and come back and play?
EDWARD COOK (Chicago, IL)
The changes to the kickoff rules will make a difference. With touchbacks being placed at the 35, teams will be keeping kickoffs in play. In the preseason, teams are averaging 3.9 kickoffs for 101 yards – numbers over double what happened in the regular season last year. Punt returns aren’t as impactful (teams averaged 1.6 punt returns for 16 yards last year in the regular season). Your mission, given your scoring system, is to find kick returners who also see consistently playing time as regular field players. There aren’t many of them. Marvin Mims (pictured) is the first guy who comes to mind, since he’s been returning both punts and kickoffs for the Broncos the last two years. In 33 games as a pro, he’s averaged 22 yards on punt returns and 18 yards on kickoff returns (with the old kickoff rules, he returned only 7 kickoffs all of last year). He’ll probably be averaging something more like 70-100 yards on kickoff returns this year. If we call it an even 100 return yards, that will be 1,700 yards if he can stay healthy for all 17 games, which would be statistically the same as if he caught an extra 28 touchdown passes – maybe a top-15 receiver in your league. I worry a little about him holding up physically (with the extra kickoff returns) but they still have him listed as their first-string guy for both kickoffs and punts. But Mims-type players are the exception. I see only two other regular field players who finished last season with more than 200 yards on punt returns – Calvin Austin and Greg Dortch. Kickoffs are the more meaningful category, with probably six times as many yards. But there aren’t a lot of regular field players who also return kickoffs. Among players who saw a decent amount of work on the field last year, I see only a few who also returned at least 10 kickoffs: Austin Ekeler (19), Deebo Samuel (17), Kenneth Gainwell (18), Sean Tucker (15), Jerome Ford (15), Malik Washington (14) and Ray-Ray McCloud (14). But that’s just last year (I don’t expect Washington will be using Ekeler or Samuel on kickoffs).
Question 3
I’ve been a subscriber since the Jurassic Period of 1989. My last keeper spot is between Brock Purdy and Garrett Wilson. As a Niners fan I’d love to keep Purdy, but I’m leaning towards Wilson. This choice is clouded by the Niners WR room being a mess and Justin Fields being the Jets QB. Additionally, most of the best teams in our league lately have clusters of great WRs. I need to develop some young guns. What’s the call sir?
Russell Pitts (Fallbrook, CA)
Positional scarcity. I have concerns about effectively Garrett Wilson will be used, but he’s a No. 1 receiver. I was in a 12-team draft that wrapped up last week. Wilson went in the fourth round, while I selected Purdy in the 10th. (And there were 11 other quarterbacks that I like that were picked before the end of the 15th round, including five in the 14th and 15th).
Question 4
I'm a HUGE FI fan and have been since 1989. I won't wax here, but the archaic methods (butcher paper lined by hand, up until early am producing weekly newsletter on a word processor, and of course numbered ping-pong balls in a Folgers can - which we still use for the random draft) in the beginning are almost unbelievable today. I would like to thank the staff, especially fellow dinosaur IAN! You guys have provided me with an advantage over the years (sans last year!), and some great entertainment. 12team (6pts for Passing TD), 2 Keepers max. (which 1 or 2?) McBride 3, Mooney 11, Nix 12. I feel Nix and Mooney are no-brainers, but it's hard to give up McBride.
Tom Fowler (Colfax, WA)
Thanks for the kind words. For our lottery, we didn’t use ping-pong balls but instead had 12 manila envelopes, each containing a placard and logo of each franchise. We were trying to channel was popular in the NBA in the ‘80s. I believe the first lottery was for the year Patrick Ewing came out. You pull them out, put them in a 12 to 1 order, then slowing reveal your draft order. Agreed on your keepers. With 6 points for TD passes, I think Nix is your best value.
Question 5
Long, long time subscriber. We are adding the TE position for the first time. 10-team league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR and a flex. How many TE's should I plug into the auction values as worth more than the minimum. I'm thinking 10.
Randy Newland (Sunrise, FL)
If everyone is picking about two tight ends, that would mean about 20 will be chosen, and a couple of guys along the lines of Dalton Schultz, Theo Johnson, Kyle Pitts, Chig Okonkwo, Darren Waller, Juwan Johnson, Brenton Strange and Ja’Tavion Sanders won’t even be selected. If everyone in the league is like me, then most of those guys won’t be rostered. That’s the safety net. It means that if you completely bungle the position, perhaps with both of your guys suffering season-ending injuries, you’ll have some chance to fall back on picking up the best of those free agent guys. Knowing that there will likely be a couple of decent tight ends available later, how much are you willing to commit to secure the rights to those modest tight ends outside the top 10? Ferguson, Loveland, Kincaid, Firemouth. Not much, I would think. I would be more inclined to skimp at the backup tight end spot, using those resources instead on other position. So I think if you plug something like 10 into the value-creator machine, it should work pretty well. (I say this not knowing your exact scoring rules and format.)
Question 6
With a revamped OL, why no love for D’Andre Swift? His ADP suggests higher ranking?
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
I have been waiting for them to replace him. While he played in all 17 games last year, Swift has had problems with injuries throughout his career. I think he’s also not as much of a thumper as most coaches would like. I think that’s played a role in him playing for three different teams in the last three years. But it’s looking like he’s going to be their guy for at least the short team. It looks like I might be too low on him.
Question 7
Which Top 50 WRs (or RBs) are most likely to run back a kickoff for a TD this year? (Are those probabilities already baked into your ranking stats?)
Neil Ellis (Santa Fe, CO)
I have only three notable names. I expect TreVeyon Henderson will be returning kickoffs for the Patriots, and took one to the house two weeks ago. Conservatively, I think it’s fair to say he’ll probably score on a kickoff return at some point (in my database, I have him scoring on a kickoff return every 25 games). And Marvin Mims is a really good kick returner who’s also viable as a field player. I would think Mims is about 50-50 to score on either a kickoff or punt returner. The other name to keep in mind is Travis Hunter, depending on how your league is scored. I don’t think Hunter will return any kicks, but I would think that at some point in the next two years, he’ll get his hands on an interception or fumble that he’ll take back the other way. Two other possibilities (that I view as less significant). Jayden Reed is listed as the primary punt returner for the Packers. And Kaleb Johnson was returning kickoffs for the Steelers last week; with his big body, I could see Johnson being a Dameon Pierce type kickoff returner who would be tough to bring down after building up a head of steam.
Question 8
I am joining a dynasty league that has been around for 10 years. I am getting the worst team, and have the first pick. There are 3 rounds of picking just rookies. Is there a list from you I should look at. My limited knowledge is leaning on Omarion Hampton.
Rob Randolph (Berthoud, CO)
I would think the No. 1 pick in over 95 percent of such drafts would be Ashton Jeanty. Maybe Hampton or even TreVeyon Henderson can outperform him, but I think Jeanty is the pick. Just hope he can stay healthy. I didn’t like the hit that Jeanty took against San Francisco. If he doesn’t do a better job of protecting himself by stepping out of bounds on occasion, he won’t stay healthy for long.
Question 9
In a .5 ppr and having the #2 pick, Is Chase a no brainer if he's there in that scenario? After Bijan is the next best rb, Barkley or Gibbs? Trying to understand if .5 is closer to full PPR projections or standard league projections.
Bill Petilli (Weston, FL)
Half PPR is halfway between Standard and PPR. In my overall for that scoring system, Chase is #1, and then 11 straight running backs.
Question 10
In a 16 team standard scoring league, my keeper is between Etienne, Stroud, J. Wright and Guerendo. I’m leaning towards Etienne is that the right decision or should I make a trade for a better keeper? I have two first-round picks this year the number 1 and 14. Should I trade my 2nd round pick for a better running back like Chase Brown who I know is available.
BRIAN ROWELL (Saint Johns, MI)
I like the sound of that Chase Brown trade. I think he’ll be a top-10 back. The idea of getting him for a second-round pick sounds like a win-win to me (with the Brown owner getting a second-round pick for a player he was going to release and you getting a first-round player for a second-round price).
Question 11
What are your thoughts on Efton Chism? he sure looks like a Danny Amendola clone to me. Could this be a last round winner?
Tavis Medrano (Arcadia, CA)
To be honest with you, I hadn’t really considered him. I was thinking of him as an undrafted free agent trying to make the roster but more likely winding up on the practice squad. You’re a step ahead of me.
Question 12
Ian, magazine reader since 1991. Thank you for all the help through the years. How do you recommend using Travis Hunter? I’m thinking draft as early DB to capture his receiving stats from the DB position. That would allow me to have an extra receiver every week with potential for tackles, interceptions and passes defensed on that side of the ball. Trick is how early in draft do I target him?
scott miller (Encinitas, CA)
For the Jaguars, I think they’ll be using him primarily as a wide receiver, with him moonlighting on the defensive side. He could be more of a situational player on that side of the ball. I’m not expecting the number to be huge on the defensive side of the ball, particularly if he’s a really good cover corner. Teams could be ignoring him. Think Darrelle Revis. In Revis’ seven Pro Bowl seasons, he averaged 48 tackles and 3.4 interceptions. Patrick Surtain had 45 tackles and 4 interceptions last year. If we’re looking only at what Hunter does as a wide receiver, I’m thinking he’s a contender to finish with top-30 numbers. He’s talented, but he’s also a work in progress, still learning the nuances of the position.
Question 13
10 man, 1/2 PPR league with a 20-round draft. We start two backs and three receivers along with a flex. Is there anything I can do in the Auction Values section (or elsewhere) to account for the fact that I'll likely be starting 3-4 receivers a week against only two backs? Currently, I have 65 total backs being drafted with 45 going for more than the minimum. And 80 receivers getting drafted with 55 going for more than the minimum. Do those numbers seem reasonable?
Jeffrey Damiani (Ashland, MA)
I will let you plug in the total numbers for each position. You were at the drafts in your league in past years, so you will know better than I. We’ve got 6 starters per team (2 that are RB, 3 that are WR and one from either position). That’s 60 guys. But everyone will want to have some good backups, so let’s call it about 90 guys. Looking at the top 92 scorers at those positions, I see 39 running backs and 53 wide receivers. I would got with those levels for the benchmarks. Looks like about 120 points is what you can expect if you put off those positions until late. The values of players will be determined by how much they give you beyond 120 points.
Question 14
In your latest cheat you have Etienne with 139 points, Bigsby with 93, and Tuten with 68, yet you have Tuten as number one on the depth chart. What am I missing?
James Costello (Portland, ME)
We have a clumsy process, in which I’m updating projecting numbers in a spreadsheet, and then Andy Richardson is getting the spreadsheet at the last minute and trying to cross-reference the numbers against his depth charts, spotting changes. So I think we have a case of the depth charts not being caught up with the most recent numbers. To address the position group, entering camp I was expecting Bhayshul Tuten to emerge as Jacksonville’s top running back. That hasn’t happened. In the most recent game, Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby shared time when the first-unit offense was on the field. I expect they’re going to operate as a one-two punch, and it can be debated which one will be better. Possibly different answers for different scoring systems, with Bigsby being the better goal-line runner but having some struggles as a pass catcher. Tuten, I am confident, will be opening the season as Jacksonville’s third back.
Question 15
I’m in a 12 team 3WR keeper league where you can keep players for 2 years after you draft them at increasing cost. I draft from the 5 slot. Omarion seems like he’s trending towards a more expensive ADP than the rankings advise. Is taking him in the 3rd round over someone like DJ Moore or Joe Burrow ill advised? If I had him this year, he would cost me a 2nd round pick next year. It’s possible he makes it back to me in the 4th, but seems doubtful based on mocks I’ve done plus a lot of guys going in the first three rounds of regular drafts are kept by managers (maybe 1/3). Thanks!
Kyle Kintner (San Marcos, CA)
The Bears have a lot of different weapons. They can spread things around. That would make me nervous about taking DJ Moore in the third round. Joe Burrow very easily could throw 40-plus touchdowns. I’m thinking that kind of a season, but he’s a quarterback, so I’ll let you factor in the positional dynamics. Hampton in the third, you wouldn’t be getting him at a steal price, but if he’s anywhere near as good as he’s supposed to be, I imagine he’ll be going in the second round next year.
Question 16
Last year Travis Eteinne owners got snake bit when the Jags moved him into a time share with Tank Bigsby. How concerned should someone be of this happening in Seattle, Minnesota and with the New York Jets where they have young capable backs behind the presumptive starter? Are there any other similar situations on other teams I'm missing?
Brian Boyd (Maple Grove, MN)
Jets are definitely a one-two punch. That’s a certainty. Andy wrote up the Jets capsule this week and speculated that Braelon Allen likely will be a better value than Breece Hall, relative to where they’re picked. I agree. I think we’ll also see a combo backfield with Vikings, with Jordan Mason adding some thump. Seattle is a little different, but with Kenneth Walker’s history of injuries, I imagine we’ll be seeing Charbonnet.
Question 17
Keeper League. PPR standard scoring. Must keep Pacheco, Shakir, Olave, R.Rice, R.Davis or Pearsall.
Jeff Zwiers (Bellingham, WA)
Not interested in Olave’s history of concussions, and I think Rice will get a notable suspension. So I would be rolling with the Fight Doctor.
Question 18
1/2 pt PPR, 16-team league where good RB talent is spread extremely thin. There are 2 starting RB spots. Do you think it would be a compelling approach to select & place both Gibbs & Montgomery in those spots? Is that an advantage over what most other teams would have for their aggregate RB pts output on a typical week?
Greg Resin (Palos Verdes Estates, CA)
Particularly in leagues with 12-plus teams, I’m interested in pairing up backs if I can. That is, when you pick a back, make an effort to also land his insurance police – he’s real-life backup. Montgomery is a little different. He has a stand-alone value, but he’s also got value as an insurance back. If Gibbs misses any games, Montgomery should soften the blow by putting up top-5 numbers for a run of games. I like that.
Question 19
Possibly one of your longest subscribers and always value your insight. It's that time of year again where I ask your thoughts on my one keeper. The league is PPR, 10 team 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 RB/WB and 1 WR/TE with 8 bench, and 3 IR. Choices are Mooney drafted in the 13th round, J Meyers in the 6th, T. Tracy in the 6th or nobody and not losing a pick in the round drafted. Mooney? Thanks, for helping make the playoffs and always finishing strong.
John Lesjack (Cranberry Township, PA)
Mooney has a shoulder injury. It’s possible he won’t be ready in Week 1. But I don’t imagine he’ll be out for two long. If he’s back before October (and I expect he will be) he’ll offer nice payoff relative to that 13th-round cost. I think he’s your guy.
Question 20
Keeper question here. I am in a 12 team league half point ppr. I am drafting#12(snaking). Who would you keep,Jefferson(hamstring injury), or D.Henry? I am being very careful with injured veteran players, after drafting McCaffrey last year with the #1 pick.
DEL AVERY (Pasco, WA)
Jefferson says he’s feeling good. My gut tells me to go with him over an older back. (But if we’re going strictly off the stat projections, Henry is a little higher than Jefferson).
Question 21
I've been a subscriber for over 15 years and greatly enjoy your insights and perspectives. I have a question on how to create a scoring profile and auction values that reflect a league with 2 flex spots and no kickers. 14 teams, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1 TE/K/DST/ 2 flex/6 bench PPR. Any thoughts on whether a 50/50 split RB/WR for the flex players sounds good?
Alan Brodecki (Katy, TX)
Nobody will be using a tight end in the flex. Those guys aren’t good enough. So let’s redefine this as each team is starting 6 WR-RB. There are 14 times, so that’s 84 starters at those positions. But with byes and injuries, everyone will be interested in carrying 2 additional good players at those positions. So that’s either 112 players. After that point, we’re into the guys we don’t care so much about (keeping in mind that everyone will be signing and releasing players throughout the season). Looking at our 112-player pool, I see 46 running backs and 66 wide receivers. That makes sense. With PPR scoring, there will be more wide receivers in those flex spots. I see WR 66 is Donte Thornton and RB 46 is Cam Skattebo. To me, those guys don’t really pass the sniff test. I wouldn’t be interested in paying more than the minimum for them. With the list in front of me, I would slide things up to about 100 players. I see Cooper Kupp (137 pts) as the #63 WR and Austin Ekeler (136) as the #36 RB. Those might be the sweet spot guys. So for the 98 players above those guys, I’m interested in how much they give me beyond 136 points. That’s what I would try for my first draft.
Question 22
Will the Fantasy Index be doing the podcasts again this season?
Scott MacDoniels (Chesterfield, MO)
There is no podcast this year. Sorry.
Question 23
Our 10-team league is going to test the Best Ball format this year. We are still having a waiver wire and regular player moves. How does the strategy change from other formats? 1QB, 2RB's, 2WR's, TE, 2 Flex. Do you have any resources you'd recommend? Assuming players with big play ability with less consistency have a little more value here. Thanks for being a great resource for all these years.
Troy Marshall (Hiawatha, IA)
I wouldn’t worry too much about trying to land guys who might catch a couple of long touchdowns. Those plays don’t happen that often. Let’s instead just focus on getting lines in the water – active guys who are on the field and contributing every week. The less explosive guys also produce viable stat lines.
Question 24
I have the #7 pick in a 10-team standard-scoring league. It's not a great spot. Based on my rankings, the WRs available there are part of a large tier and indistinguishable. I'm leaning toward RB. Henry is a likely option, but McCaffrey, Jeanty, Jacobs and Taylor will also be there. Do you prefer an RB there if Lamb and JJ are gone? And if so, which one? Thanks.
Richard Weber (Fort Myers, FL)
I would likely go running back with my first two picks, then turn attention to wide receivers.
Question 25
I have the first pick in a 12 team PPR league (Very competitive). 19 roster spots. Start QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, TE and one flex. At first I figured Chase is a no brainer, but there a caveat to the scoring, RB get .25 point for each carry. Now I'm leaning to Bijan.
Barry St Peter (Westfield, MA)
In my PPR projections, I’ve got Chase 60 points ahead of Bijan. That’s without carries. If Bijan were to carry the ball 240-plus times, he’d finish with more points. That seems to make him the choice, with RB being harder to find.
Question 26
I'm in 12 team PPR league. All TDs are worth 6 points. I have the 4th pick in this draft. Who would you pick at number 4?
John Wozniak (Lackawanna, NY)
I’d be looking at Chase, I’d be looking at Burrow, and I’d be looking at running backs. I know guys don’t like taking quarterbacks, but what if we have a really strong feeling Burrow is going to throw over 40 touchdowns. I think that gets him in the conversation.
Question 27
Could you list this years new head coaches for their teams?
Ken Freeman (Green Bay, WI)
There are seven. Ben Johnson (Chi), Brian Schottenheimer (Dall), Liam Coen (Jags), Pete Carroll (LV), Mike Vrabel (NE), Aaron Glenn (NYJ), Kellen Moore (NO).
Question 28
Keepers: I’m keeping Trey McBride in the 9th round but must select one more keeper. Chiba Hubbard in the 11th round or Baker Mayfield in the 15th round? Thank you.
Michael Strutt (Butler, PA)
Two good choices. It’s harder to find running backs, so I will go with Hubbard.
Question 29
Didn't you (FFI) used to have a depth Chart included on your FFI magazine?
Lewis Michael (Renton, WA)
The depth charts don’t appear in the magazine, but they are included in our updates in August (and throughout the year).
Question 30
Dynasty. Would you trade S. Barkley as a keeper for J Taylor – Keeper, K Walker - 5th, J Ford - 18th
William Gwinn (San Leon, TX)
Barkley was awfully good for you last year. Would be tough to stab him in the back like that. But Taylor is almost as good and younger.