After projecting the winners and losers of all of the remaining games, Ian comes to the conclusion that the winner of the NFC East very likely could finish with an 8-8 record -- while 9-7 teams in other divisions won't make the playoffs.

Let’s try take two on the projected wins for each team. I posted this earlier today and managled it on multiple levels.

The Giants and Falcons, for starters, can be declared deceased. I've got those teams finishing at about 4-12. By my calculations, they're down there with the likes of the Jaguars and Bucs.

What you see below is a combination of what's already happened, and what's yet to come. For each of the remaining games, I assign a win probability. The more certain that win looks, the more of that one win I assign to said team.

In the case of the Broncos and Jaguars, for example, I went with 99%. So for that game, Denver gets .99 of a win, and the Jaguars get the remaining .01. If a game is a 50-50 deal, I just split the win between the two teams.

You follow that process for every team and every game, you get a general idea of what will happen -- or what you think will happen.

According to my calculations, Denver and New England will get the byes in the AFC. New Orleans and Seattle in the NFC (and essentially no difference between those teams).

Green Bay, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Dallas look like the other division winners. Dallas just edges Philadelphia, while Baltimore comes in just a shade ahead of Cincinnati.

Wildcards: Kansas City, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Chicago.

According to my numbers, three teams might finish with 9-7 records (Houston, Detroit, Miami) and not make the playoffs -- even while the 8-8 Cowboys will.

Look it over. Let me know where you think I've gone wrong.

SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION -- REMAINING GAMES

Week 6 Green Bay 45% at Baltimore 55%6p
Cincinnati 55% at Buffalo 45%6p
NY Giants 15% at Chicago 85%6p
Detroit 50% at Cleveland 50%6p
Washington 25% at Dallas 75%6p
Jacksonville 1% at Denver 99%6p
St. Louis 20% at Houston 80%6p
Oakland 15% at Kansas City 85%6p
Carolina 40% at Minnesota 60%6p
New Orleans 45% at New England 55%6p
Pittsburgh 45% at NY Jets 55%6p
Indianapolis 50% at San Diego 50%6p
Arizona 15% at San Francisco 85%6p
Tennessee 15% at Seattle 85%6p
Philadelphia 55% at Tampa Bay 45%6p
Week 7
Seattle 60% at Arizona 40%6p
Tampa Bay 45% at Atlanta 55%6p
St. Louis 35% at Carolina 65%6p
Cincinnati 45% at Detroit 55%6p
Cleveland 10% at Green Bay 90%6p
Denver 70% at Indianapolis 30%6p
San Diego 60% at Jacksonville 40%6p
Houston 50% at Kansas City 50%6p
Buffalo 15% at Miami 85%6p
Minnesota 45% at NY Giants 55%6p
New England 70% at NY Jets 30%6p
Dallas 45% at Philadelphia 55%6p
Baltimore 55% at Pittsburgh 45%6p
San Francisco 50% at Tennessee 50%6p
Chicago 50% at Washington 50%6p
Week 8
Atlanta 20% at Arizona 80%6p
NY Jets 20% at Cincinnati 80%6p
Washington 5% at Denver 95%6p
Dallas 45% at Detroit 55%6p
San Francisco 80% at Jacksonville 20% (in England) Cleveland 15% at Kansas City 85%6p
Green Bay 55% at Minnesota 45%6p
Miami 15% at New England 85%6p
Buffalo 5% at New Orleans 95%6p
Pittsburgh 45% at Oakland 55%6p
NY Giants 25% at Philadelphia 75%6p
Seattle 55% at St. Louis 45%6p
Carolina 60% at Tampa Bay 40%6p
Week 9
Kansas City 55% at Buffalo 45%6p
Atlanta 20% at Carolina 80%6p
Baltimore 60% at Cleveland 40%6p
Minnesota 20% at Dallas 80%6p
Chicago 40% at Green Bay 60%6p
Indianapolis 40% at Houston 60%6p
Cincinnati 50% at Miami 50%6p
Pittsburgh 5% at New England 95%6p
New Orleans 70% at NY Jets 30%6p
Philadelphia 50% at Oakland 50%6p
Tampa Bay 5% at Seattle 95%6p
Tennessee 45% at St. Louis 55%6p
San Diego 40% at Washington 60%6p
Week 10
Houston 55% at Arizona 45%6p
Seattle 80% at Atlanta 20%6p
Cincinnati 40% at Baltimore 60%6p
Detroit 30% at Chicago 70%6p
Philadelphia 25% at Green Bay 75%6p
St. Louis 25% at Indianapolis 75%6p
Washington 45% at Minnesota 55%6p
Dallas 25% at New Orleans 75%6p
Oakland 40% at NY Giants 60%6p
Buffalo 20% at Pittsburgh 80%6p
Denver 75% at San Diego 25%6p
Carolina 15% at San Francisco 85%6p
Miami 60% at Tampa Bay 40%6p
Jacksonville 5% at Tennessee 95%6p
Week 11
NY Jets 45% at Buffalo 55%6p
New England 60% at Carolina 40%6p
Baltimore 45% at Chicago 55%6p
Cleveland 20% at Cincinnati 80%6p
Kansas City 15% at Denver 85%6p
Oakland 15% at Houston 85%6p
Arizona 55% at Jacksonville 45%6p
San Diego 30% at Miami 70%6p
San Francisco 35% at New Orleans 65%6p
Green Bay 60% at NY Giants 40%6p
Washington 35% at Philadelphia 65%6p
Detroit 45% at Pittsburgh 55%6p
Minnesota 5% at Seattle 95%6p
Atlanta 45% at Tampa Bay 55%6p
Indianapolis 45% at Tennessee 55%6p
Week 12
Indianapolis 55% at Arizona 45%6p
New Orleans 80% at Atlanta 20%6p
NY Jets 15% at Baltimore 85%6p
Pittsburgh 35% at Cleveland 65%6p
Tampa Bay 10% at Detroit 90%6p
Minnesota 10% at Green Bay 90%6p
Jacksonville 5% at Houston 95%6p
San Diego 30% at Kansas City 70%6p
Carolina 30% at Miami 70%6p
Denver 55% at New England 45%6p
Dallas 50% at NY Giants 50%6p
Tennessee 55% at Oakland 45%6p
Chicago 50% at St. Louis 50%6p
San Francisco 50% at Washington 50%6p
Week 13
Pittsburgh 15% at Baltimore 85%6p
Atlanta 20% at Buffalo 80%6p
Tampa Bay 15% at Carolina 85%6p
Jacksonville 15% at Cleveland 85%6p
Oakland 15% at Dallas 85%6p
Green Bay 45% at Detroit 55%6p
New England 50% at Houston 50%6p
Tennessee 40% at Indianapolis 60%6p
Denver 60% at Kansas City 40%6p
Chicago 50% at Minnesota 50%6p
Miami 45% at NY Jets 55%6p
Arizona 35% at Philadelphia 65%6p
Cincinnati 55% at San Diego 45%6p
St. Louis 15% at San Francisco 85%6p
New Orleans 30% at Seattle 70%6p
NY Giants 30% at Washington 70%6p
Week 14
St. Louis 30% at Arizona 70%6p
Minnesota 15% at Baltimore 85%6p
Dallas 40% at Chicago 60%6p
Indianapolis 45% at Cincinnati 55%6p
Tennessee 5% at Denver 95%6p
Atlanta 5% at Green Bay 95%6p
Houston 80% at Jacksonville 20%6p
Cleveland 5% at New England 95%6p
Carolina 15% at New Orleans 85%6p
Oakland 25% at NY Jets 75%6p
Detroit 35% at Philadelphia 65%6p
Miami 45% at Pittsburgh 55%6p
NY Giants 20% at San Diego 80%6p
Seattle 40% at San Francisco 60%6p
Buffalo 50% at Tampa Bay 50%6p
Kansas City 50% at Washington 50%6p
Week 15
Washington 65% at Atlanta 35%6p
NY Jets 40% at Carolina 60%6p
Chicago 60% at Cleveland 40%6p
Green Bay 45% at Dallas 55%6p
San Diego 15% at Denver 85%6p
Baltimore 45% at Detroit 55%6p
Houston 45% at Indianapolis 55%6p
Buffalo 50% at Jacksonville 50%6p
New England 60% at Miami 40%6p
Philadelphia 40% at Minnesota 60%6p
Seattle 65% at NY Giants 35%6p
Kansas City 60% at Oakland 40%6p
Cincinnati 55% at Pittsburgh 45%6p
New Orleans 50% at St. Louis 50%6p
San Francisco 65% at Tampa Bay 35%6p
Arizona 35% at Tennessee 65%6p
Week 16
New England 40% at Baltimore 60%6p
Miami 45% at Buffalo 55%6p
New Orleans 50% at Carolina 50%6p
Minnesota 15% at Cincinnati 85%6p
NY Giants 15% at Detroit 85%6p
Pittsburgh 10% at Green Bay 90%6p
Denver 60% at Houston 40%6p
Tennessee 60% at Jacksonville 40%6p
Indianapolis 45% at Kansas City 55%6p
Cleveland 30% at NY Jets 70%6p
Chicago 45% at Philadelphia 55%6p
Oakland 30% at San Diego 70%6p
Atlanta 10% at San Francisco 90%6p
Arizona 5% at Seattle 95%6p
Tampa Bay 20% at St. Louis 80%6p
Dallas 45% at Washington 55%6p
Week 17
San Francisco 55% at Arizona 45%6p
Carolina 55% at Atlanta 45%6p
Green Bay 50% at Chicago 50%6p
Baltimore 45% at Cincinnati 55%6p
Philadelphia 30% at Dallas 70%6p
Jacksonville 5% at Indianapolis 95%6p
NY Jets 40% at Miami 60%6p
Detroit 45% at Minnesota 55%6p
Buffalo 5% at New England 95%6p
Tampa Bay 5% at New Orleans 95%6p
Washington 45% at NY Giants 55%6p
Denver 90% at Oakland 10%6p
Cleveland 40% at Pittsburgh 60%6p
Kansas City 45% at San Diego 55%6p
St. Louis 15% at Seattle 85%6p
Houston 45% at Tennessee 55%6p