Setting aside weather for now and assuming a 26-23 Denver win, Ian Allan puts together his list of every skill-position player from both teams.

Here’s a first take on the individual numbers I expect in Super Bowl XLVIII. (Let’s see … X L V I I I … Yes. Got that right. Can we just start calling it Super Bowl 48?).

This is just a first draft. A week from now, we’ll have some idea what the weather might be like. If the conditions are good, it will be tough for the Seahawks – any defense, really, to get many stops against that Denver offense. If it’s snowing or cold or really windy – or some combination of those three – than I think it will be the Seahawks.

We’ll also need to check on injuries. I’m assuming that Percy Harvin and Knowshon Moreno will be fine.

These projections are based on the weather being OK and the Broncos winning about 26-23.

Players are ranked in order of expected production, with no weight given to positions. I’m putting them in three different scoring systems.

Standard: 6 points for TDs, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 10 run/rec yards, 1 for every 20 passing yards. Kicking points standard. Defenses get 6 points for touchdowns on turnovers and special teams, 2 for takeaways and 1 for each sack. Individual players (Holliday, Harvin, Tate, Baldwin) get credit for possibility they’ll score on a kick return.

PPR: Same as above but players also get 1 point for each reception. Defensive scoring also slightly different; same as above, but they get slight bonuses for allowing fewer points. I’ve got Denver holding Seattle to 23 points. A half point for that. And Seattle gets minus-1 point for Denver scoring 26.

TD-only: 6 points for all touchdowns (including individuals maybe scoring on a kick return), 4 for TD passes, 3 for field goals and 1 for extra points. 2 points for safeties and 2-point conversions, but those aren’t worked into my model in any way.

SUPER BOWL PROJECTIONS (Standard scoring)
RkPosTmPlayerPassRecRunTDPTDPoints
1.QBDENPeyton Manning282011.93.0122.0
2.QBSEARussell Wilson2030271.34.1719.2
3.RBSEAMarshawn Lynch01485.00.7714.5
4.RBDENKnowshon Moreno02664.00.5112.0
5.WRDENDemaryius Thomas0710.00.469.9
6.WRDENEric Decker0600.00.398.3
7.PKDENMatt Prater000.00.008.3
8.WRDENWes Welker0540.00.407.8
9.TEDENJulius Thomas0480.00.457.5
10.PKSEASteven Hauschka000.00.007.5
11.RBDENMontee Ball0944.00.266.8
12.WRSEAPercy Harvin0433.00.326.5
13.STDENDenver000.00.196.4
14.WRSEADoug Baldwin0401.00.265.7
15.WRSEAGolden Tate0391.00.275.6
16.STSEASeattle 000.00.185.3
17.TESEAZach Miller0270.00.264.2
18.WRSEAJermaine Kearse0210.00.142.9
19.RBSEARobert Turbin0312.00.092.1
20.TESEALuke Willson0100.00.051.3
21.WRDENAndre Caldwell090.00.051.1
22.TEDENJacob Tamme040.00.04.6
23.WRDENTrindon Holliday010.00.08.5
24.RBSEADerrick Coleman020.00.02.4
25.TEDENVirgil Green020.00.03.3
26.TESEAKellen Davis020.00.01.3
27.QBDENBrock Osweiler300.02.00.2
28.RBSEAMichael Robinson010.00.01.2
29.RBDENRonnie Hillman010.00.01.2
30.QBSEATarvaris Jackson200.01.00.2
31.WRSEARicardo Lockette010.00.01.1
32.RBSEAChristine Michael001.00.00.1
33.QBDENZac Dysert100.00.00.0
34.TEDENJoel Dreessen000.00.00.0
35.WRSEABryan Walters000.00.00.0
36.RBDENC.J. Anderson000.00.00.0
SUPER BOWL PROJECTIONS (PPR scoring)
RkPosTmPlayerPassRecRunTDPTDPoints
1.QBDENPeyton Manning282011.93.0122.0
2.QBSEARussell Wilson2030271.34.1719.2
3.RBSEAMarshawn Lynch01485.00.7716.2
4.RBDENKnowshon Moreno02664.00.5115.0
5.WRDENDemaryius Thomas0710.00.4614.8
6.WRDENEric Decker0600.00.3913.0
7.WRDENWes Welker0540.00.4012.7
8.TEDENJulius Thomas0480.00.4512.1
9.WRSEAPercy Harvin0433.00.329.9
10.WRSEADoug Baldwin0401.00.268.4
11.WRSEAGolden Tate0391.00.278.4
12.PKDENMatt Prater000.00.008.3
13.RBDENMontee Ball0944.00.268.0
14.PKSEASteven Hauschka000.00.007.5
15.STDENDenver000.00.196.9
16.TESEAZach Miller0270.00.266.6
17.STSEASeattle 000.00.184.3
18.WRSEAJermaine Kearse0210.00.144.2
19.RBSEARobert Turbin0312.00.092.5
20.TESEALuke Willson0100.00.052.1
21.WRDENAndre Caldwell090.00.051.8
22.TEDENJacob Tamme040.00.041.0
23.RBSEADerrick Coleman020.00.02.8
24.WRDENTrindon Holliday010.00.08.6
25.TEDENVirgil Green020.00.03.5
26.TESEAKellen Davis020.00.01.5
27.RBSEAMichael Robinson010.00.01.4
28.RBDENRonnie Hillman010.00.01.3
29.QBDENBrock Osweiler300.02.00.2
30.WRSEARicardo Lockette010.00.01.2
31.QBSEATarvaris Jackson200.01.00.2
32.RBSEAChristine Michael001.00.00.1
33.TEDENJoel Dreessen000.00.00.1
34.QBDENZac Dysert100.00.00.0
35.WRSEABryan Walters000.00.00.0
36.RBDENC.J. Anderson000.00.00.0
SUPER BOWL PROJECTIONS (TD-only scoring)
RkPosTmPlayerPassRecRunKickPoints
1.PKDENMatt Prater.00.00.00.008.3
2.QBDENPeyton Manning1.93.00.01.007.8
3.PKSEASteven Hauschka.00.00.00.007.5
4.QBSEARussell Wilson1.34.00.17.006.4
5.RBSEAMarshawn Lynch.00.08.68.004.6
6.RBDENKnowshon Moreno.00.12.40.003.1
7.WRDENDemaryius Thomas.00.46.00.002.8
8.TEDENJulius Thomas.00.45.00.002.7
9.WRDENWes Welker.00.40.00.002.4
10.WRDENEric Decker.00.39.00.002.3
11.WRSEAPercy Harvin.00.28.01.031.9
12.WRSEAGolden Tate.00.24.00.031.6
13.WRSEADoug Baldwin.00.25.00.011.6
14.RBDENMontee Ball.00.02.24.001.6
15.TESEAZach Miller.00.26.00.001.5
16.STDENDenver.00.00.00.071.2
17.STSEASeattle .00.00.00.071.1
18.WRSEAJermaine Kearse.00.14.00.00.8
19.RBSEARobert Turbin.00.01.08.00.5
20.WRDENTrindon Holliday.00.01.00.07.5
21.TESEALuke Willson.00.05.00.00.3
22.WRDENAndre Caldwell.00.05.00.00.3
23.TEDENJacob Tamme.00.04.00.00.2
24.TEDENVirgil Green.00.03.00.00.2
25.RBSEADerrick Coleman.00.02.00.00.1
26.TESEAKellen Davis.00.01.00.00.1
27.QBDENBrock Osweiler.02.00.00.00.1
28.RBSEAMichael Robinson.00.01.00.00.1
29.QBSEATarvaris Jackson.01.00.00.00.1
30.RBDENRonnie Hillman.00.00.00.00.0
31.WRSEARicardo Lockette.00.01.00.00.0
32.RBSEAChristine Michael.00.00.00.00.0
33.QBDENZac Dysert.00.00.00.00.0
34.TEDENJoel Dreessen.00.00.00.00.0
35.WRSEABryan Walters.00.00.00.00.0
36.RBDENC.J. Anderson.00.00.00.00.0

--Ian Allan