What's the soundest strategy to pursue with a first-round pick in a fantasy draft? Looking at the durability of each position, Ian Allan comes up with some unexpected results.
Running backs aren’t as durable as quarterbacks or wide receivers. That’s the risk with taking them in the first round – they’re far more likely to get hurt, and then your fantasy season goes to hell.
That’s the theory, anyway.
Check out this little study.
For this one, I set touchdowns aside. Looked only at yards. For each of these three positions – QB, RB, WR – I took the top 50 players of this century (2000-2013). Looking only at guys who started at least 15-16 games, I took the top 50 in average yards per game.
Then I looked at how those players did the NEXT season. That is, if you have a big stud producer, and a guy who stayed healthy (some of those 15-game starters maybe were rested for Week 17 or whatever), then how did they do the following season?
I set aside guys who didn’t play at all the next year. If a player either retired or blew out his new in July or whatever, I just eliminated him from the get-go. To be eligible, the player had to start at least one game in the following year.
I results, for me, were a little surprising.
I thought the running backs would miss the most games, by far. Instead, they were the most durable.
Of the 50 quarterbacks, five of them missed over half of the season. That’s 10 percent of the group. Another seven missed 3-7 games. The guys who started 14-16 games, I’m going to call them “healthy”.
For the wide receivers, three missed half of the season. Seven missed 7-9 games. So that’s 20 percent of those top receivers missing at least 3 games in the followup seasons.
For the running games, none of them missed half of the season. Only five missed 3-7 games. So only 10 percent missed three-plus games.
Total missed games: Quarterbacks 89, wide receivers 74, running backs 39.
We can also look at the fluctuation of what happened on the field. That is, when a running back averages 100 yards one year, how much does he tend to fall off in the followup season? For this one, I went with per-game production. I didn’t want to penalize the QB and WR positions too much for playing fewer games.
For quarterbacks, the top 50 averaged 287 yards in their big seasons. They decline to 266 yards, on average, the next year. (Again, setting aside injuries). That’s a drop of 7 percent.
For wide receiver, they averaged 92 yards in their big seasons, then dropped to 77 yards. That’s a drop of almost 17 percent – over twice as much.
For running backs, they averaged 97 yards in the superstar seasons, falling to 88 yards in the followup. That’s a drop of 9 percent.
This is just a subset – the top 50 at each position while looking at three two-season blocks (so about the top 4 players each year). But not the results I expected.
I am heading back to the drawing board. May make some shifts in philosophy at the top of my draft board this year.
| QUARTERBACKS DECLINING 20 PERCENT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Start | Yards | Decline |
| 2008 | Tom Brady | 1 | 76 | 75% |
| 2003 | Rich Gannon | 7 | 182 | 38% |
| 2003 | Drew Bledsoe | 16 | 179 | 34% |
| 2010 | Brett Favre | 13 | 193 | 27% |
| 2007 | Marc Bulger | 12 | 199 | 26% |
| 2005 | Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 223 | 24% |
| 2001 | Elvis Grbac | 14 | 217 | 22% |
| 2012 | Philip Rivers | 16 | 225 | 22% |
| 2002 | Kurt Warner | 6 | 236 | 22% |
| WIDE RECEIVERS DECLINING 20 PERCENT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Start | Yards | Decline |
| 2005 | Javon Walker | 1 | 27 | 69% |
| 2001 | Derrick Alexander | 12 | 37 | 57% |
| 2008 | Chad Ochocinco | 13 | 42 | 54% |
| 2012 | Larry Fitzgerald | 16 | 50 | 43% |
| 2005 | Muhsin Muhammad | 15 | 50 | 43% |
| 2005 | Joe Horn | 13 | 50 | 42% |
| 2004 | Randy Moss | 13 | 59 | 42% |
| 2007 | Marvin Harrison | 5 | 49 | 42% |
| 2006 | Santana Moss | 14 | 56 | 39% |
| 2002 | David Boston | 8 | 64 | 36% |
| 2008 | Randy Moss | 16 | 63 | 32% |
| 2011 | Reggie Wayne | 16 | 60 | 29% |
| 2011 | Brandon Lloyd | 15 | 64 | 29% |
| 2002 | Rod Smith | 16 | 64 | 28% |
| 2008 | Terrell Owens | 16 | 66 | 27% |
| 2004 | Anquan Boldin | 9 | 64 | 26% |
| 2002 | Jimmy Smith | 16 | 64 | 25% |
| 2001 | Isaac Bruce | 16 | 69 | 25% |
| 2008 | Reggie Wayne | 16 | 72 | 24% |
| 2009 | Larry Fitzgerald | 16 | 68 | 24% |
| 2003 | Marvin Harrison | 15 | 85 | 21% |
| RUNNING BACKS DECLINING 20 PERCENT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Start | Yards | Decline |
| 2004 | Jamal Lewis | 12 | 84 | 35% |
| 2004 | Ahman Green | 15 | 78 | 34% |
| 2010 | Chris Johnson | 16 | 85 | 32% |
| 2013 | Adrian Peterson | 14 | 90 | 31% |
| 2007 | Frank Gore | 15 | 73 | 31% |
| 2006 | Edgerrin James | 16 | 72 | 28% |
| 2002 | Curtis Martin | 16 | 68 | 28% |
| 2003 | Ricky Williams | 16 | 86 | 26% |
| 2004 | Deuce McAllister | 14 | 77 | 25% |
| 2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 16 | 69 | 25% |
| 2011 | Chris Johnson | 16 | 65 | 23% |
| 2009 | Adrian Peterson | 16 | 86 | 21% |
| 2013 | Alfred Morris | 16 | 80 | 21% |
| 2013 | Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 79 | 21% |
—Ian Allan