What do we make of the Denver Broncos? So dominant for most of last season, piling up a record 71 touchdowns in the regular season. Then completely overrun in the Super Bowl, shut out until the fourth quarter.
The Broncos averaged 37.9 points in the regular season, but they scored only 24, 26 and 8 points in their three playoff games.
History shows us that any time an offense puts up big numbers, it’s difficult to follow the next season. Twenty other offenses have scored over 55 touchdowns in a season (just offensive touchdowns here – no kick or turnover returns), and 75 percent of those teams scored at least a dozen fewer touchdowns the next year.
Only three of these superstar offenses managed to nudge forward by 1-2 touchdowns in their next year.
Denver’s lost some pieces. Eric Decker signed with the Jets, and Knowshon Moreno is with Miami now.
We’ll grant that the game is more wide open nowadays, with scoring up everywhere. But it looks like even a Denver optimist shouldn’t be slotting them for anything more than about 56-57 touchdowns this year, and that’s a big drop from 2013.
OFFENSES SCORING 56-PLUS TOUCHDOWNS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Before | TDs | Diff |
1981 | Dallas Cowboys | 56 | 39 | -17 |
1984 | Washington Redskins | 59 | 44 | -15 |
1985 | Miami Dolphins | 67 | 50 | -17 |
1986 | San Diego Chargers | 57 | 40 | -17 |
1995 | San Francisco 49ers | 60 | 48 | -12 |
1999 | San Francisco 49ers | 60 | 28 | -32 |
1999 | Denver Broncos | 58 | 29 | -29 |
1999 | Minnesota Vikings | 58 | 45 | -13 |
2001 | St. Louis Rams | 63 | 57 | -6 |
2002 | St. Louis Rams | 57 | 35 | -22 |
2004 | Kansas City | 56 | 58 | +2 |
2005 | Kansas City | 58 | 43 | -15 |
2005 | Indianapolis Colts | 61 | 49 | -12 |
2007 | San Diego Chargers | 56 | 41 | -15 |
2008 | New England Patriots | 67 | 42 | -25 |
2011 | New England Patriots | 56 | 57 | +1 |
2012 | Green Bay Packers | 63 | 49 | -14 |
2012 | New Orleans Saints | 62 | 53 | -9 |
2012 | New England Patriots | 57 | 59 | +2 |
2013 | New England Patriots | 59 | 44 | -15 |
2014 | Denver Broncos | 71 | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan