What do we make of the Denver Broncos? So dominant for most of last season, piling up a record 71 touchdowns in the regular season. Then completely overrun in the Super Bowl, shut out until the fourth quarter.

The Broncos averaged 37.9 points in the regular season, but they scored only 24, 26 and 8 points in their three playoff games.

History shows us that any time an offense puts up big numbers, it’s difficult to follow the next season. Twenty other offenses have scored over 55 touchdowns in a season (just offensive touchdowns here – no kick or turnover returns), and 75 percent of those teams scored at least a dozen fewer touchdowns the next year.

Only three of these superstar offenses managed to nudge forward by 1-2 touchdowns in their next year.

Denver’s lost some pieces. Eric Decker signed with the Jets, and Knowshon Moreno is with Miami now.

We’ll grant that the game is more wide open nowadays, with scoring up everywhere. But it looks like even a Denver optimist shouldn’t be slotting them for anything more than about 56-57 touchdowns this year, and that’s a big drop from 2013.

OFFENSES SCORING 56-PLUS TOUCHDOWNS
YearTeamBeforeTDsDiff
1981Dallas Cowboys5639-17
1984Washington Redskins5944-15
1985Miami Dolphins6750-17
1986San Diego Chargers5740-17
1995San Francisco 49ers6048-12
1999San Francisco 49ers6028-32
1999Denver Broncos5829-29
1999Minnesota Vikings5845-13
2001St. Louis Rams6357-6
2002St. Louis Rams5735-22
2004Kansas City5658+2
2005Kansas City5843-15
2005Indianapolis Colts6149-12
2007San Diego Chargers5641-15
2008New England Patriots6742-25
2011New England Patriots5657+1
2012Green Bay Packers6349-14
2012New Orleans Saints6253-9
2012New England Patriots5759+2
2013New England Patriots5944-15
2014Denver Broncos71??

—Ian Allan