Are Thursday games lower scoring? Should we all be looking to avoid using players in these early games when a similar alternative is available on Sunday?
I don’t think so.
The issue, I think, is more about playing common opponents rather than what day the game is played.
When teams face divisional rivals twice per year, they start getting an idea of how offenses work and how to handle certain playmakers. They learn.
When we see low-scoring games on Thursdays, we tend to blame that on the short week. In reality, it’s probably more to do with who’s playing. All but one of the Thursday games this year features a matchup of two teams from the same division.
Compare the overall numbers. Over the last five years, teams have averaged 45.7 points (combined) in games outside the division. They’ve averaged only 43.2 points inside the division – 2.5 less.
A difference of 2.5 points, that’s significant. And this isn’t based on a handful of games, where a couple of teams happened to have big nights. This is 800 out-of-division games compared against 480 inside-division games.
So in my opinion, when you have two similar players, everything else being equal, the tendency should be to opt for the one playing against a defense that doesn’t see him as often.
The difference on the numbers below was the largest last year, when there was an average of 5 more points per game scored when the teams were from different divisions.
| SCORING IN DIVISIONAL GAMES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Division | Other | Diff |
| 2009 | 42.1 | 43.4 | 1.4 |
| 2010 | 42.0 | 45.3 | 3.3 |
| 2011 | 43.5 | 44.9 | 1.4 |
| 2012 | 44.7 | 46.0 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | 43.7 | 48.7 | 5.0 |
| Avg | 43.2 | 45.7 | 2.5 |
To be open and fair, I will point out that I also ran the numbers on the previous five years – 2004 thru 2008. I didn’t see much difference between those seasons. (In two of those, the scoring was actually higher inside the division). I’m not sure why this occurred, and whether it’s an indication that these more-current numbers are due mostly to chance. One possibility is that as computers and player analysis has become more advanced, teams have been able to do a better job of breaking down and cataloging plays, making their preparations for common opponents more effective. Something like that.
—Ian Allan