Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: What is the future of Cordarrelle Patterson? (And Randall Cobb?) What rookies will be breakout players in 2015? And what are realistic expectations for Julio Jones?
Question 1
Rodgers and Cobb have been a great QB-WR combination for me this year. I believe that Cobb is at the end of his rookie contract and I'm afraid he may be allowed to leave as a free agent like James Jones. As Cobb is a smaller guy and has had several injuries, do you see Cobb returning to the Packers? If not, is Davante Adams his anointed successor or could Boykin possibly take over?
Andrew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
I saw a story a day or two ago that Green Bay and Cobb aren’t talking about a contract extension right now. But I’m sure he’ll be back. With that offense, they need three receivers. For Aaron Rodgers to do his thing, he needs three wide receivers, and at least two of them have to be really good. Otherwise, Jordy Nelson strains a hamstring or whatever, and suddenly they just don’t have enough weapons. Nelson and Cobb are both really good, and Adams is becoming one of those guys. But it would be too much of a gamble, I think, for the Packers to conclude that they should head into 2015 with Nelson and Adams as their starting receivers. Then one of them gets hurt, and Boykin is forced to become a heavily used starter and some nobody off the street is then the No. 3. Just not good enough. With Cobb-Nelson as their starters, then they can withstand having one of those guys sidelined for a month or so (elevating Adams to a starting role next year might not be much of a downgrade, and they’d have Boykin as a capable and experienced No. 3).
Question 2
I would like your thoughts regarding Corderelle Patterson for 2015. When I look at him on film I see a 3-inch taller version of Odell Beckham Jr. I am thinking of offering up Donte Moncrief for him in trade once the season is over. Your thoughts?
JOHN SHELBROCK (Frankenmuth, MI)
If you offer Moncrief for Patterson, I’m sure the trade will be accepted. I would think 98 percent of guys who play our little game would prefer Moncrief, and maybe all 32 NFL teams as well. After all, what has Patterson done in his first two years in the league? He’s shown top potential on end-arounds and kickoff returns. No complaints there. But in terms of being an actual wide receivers – route running, hands, etc. – it hasn’t happened yet. When he was a rookie, the Vikings were throwing him quick, short balls (flanker screens and stuff) and letting him run after the catch. This year they wanted him to be more of a true receiver (running downfield and whatnot) and he simply couldn’t do it. He was their featured receiver for the first nine games, and he couldn’t do it. Now they’ve got Charles Johnson in that role, and he’s doing all the nice things Patterson couldn’t, averaging 71 yards in the last five games. Moncrief, on the other hand, hasn’t played much but still has a pair of 100-yard games. He’s definitely going to be a starter next year (and beyond) and is working with the best young quarterback in the league. I expect Moncrief will be selected many rounds before Patterson in the vast majority of fantasy drafts next summer.
Question 3
Major blunder on my part. When the waivers went into effect I immediately grabbed Randle even though I knew I wanted to also grab Dwayne Allen to replace Donnell. Why I grabbed Randle, who as I type this doesn't look like he's going to start, my opponent grabbed Allen and immediately stuck him in his line up. I've been beating myself up pretty good over that move as my other RB's, Fred Jackson and Forsett, are not exactly chopped liver. Please talk me back in off the ledge and tell me it's going to be OK or throw out some other options I may have missed. Or just push my ass off and tell me what a moron I am. I lean towards the latter myself
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
Randle fits in really nicely with your team. The Cowboys have a late start, so it’s tough to know if DeMarco Murray will be active or not. But you’ve got Fred Jackson in your back pocket. So you start Forsett and Jackson for now, and then start looking at Randle again at about 4 pm Eastern. If Murray is inactive, you pull Jackson and put in Randle, and he could be the guy who lifts you to the championship. That’s a really good offensive line he’s running behind. He’s averaging 7 yards per carry. It’s a little nerve-racking, knowing you could have had a starting tight end with that waiver claim (and I think Allen is a top-10 tight end this week) but if Murray is inactive, Randle will be many times more valuable.
Question 4
If Julio Jones is active, should I start him? I'm worried he could be used as a decoy (like Megatron), I have Megatron as my WR1 so I have been burned by this situation before.
Benjamin MacLeod (Manchester, NH)
Jones is questionable. Per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, they’re going to have him run around some on Saturday, see what he feels like on Sunday and make a decision. They did the same last week before scratching him for the Pittsburgh game. Mike Smith says he thinks Jones will play. It’s a big game, so I would think that even if Jones is gimpy, he’ll likely be out there. As you point out, however, if he’s out there and definitely less than 100 percent, it would be logical for him to be used more as a decoy than in a regular game. This is an early kickoff on Sunday, so at least people will know if he’ll be inactive prior to the start of most of the games. My leaning will be to lower expectations for Jones, while expecting Roddy White and Harry Douglas to play larger roles than usual.
Question 5
I am in a keeper league where rookies can be kept for free the next year and if you were bad this is the time of the year to grab guys who may be good next year, regardless of draft class. Can you look into your crystal ball and see who will make a big splash next year?
MICHAEL BAKER (Jamestown, OH)
For quarterbacks, Bortles, Manziel and Bridgewater were the first three selected, but Derek Carr might have a better career than all of them. If NFL teams were redrafting, he would be selected before Manziel and Bridgewater. Zach Mettenberger also did some good things; I think he would be selected before Manziel. So the “in hindsight” draft order for quarterbacks might be Bortles/Carr (pretty similar), followed by Bridgewater/Mettenberger (also close) and then Manziel. For running backs, the following guys probably will be starters on opening day next year: Sankey, Hill, Hyde, Mason, Crowell, McKinnon. Another group probably will open the 2015 as backups (meaning they’ll start some games at some point): Sims, West, Freeman, Taliaferro, Blue and Andre Williams. At wide receiver, all five of the guys selected in the first round might be top-20 receivers next year: Beckham, Evans, Watkins, Benjamin and Cooks. (This should change the way we all look at rookie receivers going forward – they’re more pro-ready now). Making it even weirder, I don’t think any of the NFL teams are too disappointed with the wide receivers they selected in the second round. Lee, Matthews, Richardson, Adams, Latimer, Robinson and Landry are all on track for great careers. In particular, Matthews, Adams and Landry had superb rookie seasons. At tight end, I see four rookies with some potential to maybe be top-20 players next year at that position: Ebron, Seferian-Jenkins, Amaro and Rodgers.
Question 6
Thanks to FantasyIndex I have made the playoffs in 4 out of the last 5 fantasy seasons in my important keeper league. Unfortunately, I cannot seem to get the bounces come playoff time (zero league titles). I am looking for some deep sleepers to pick up as potential keepers for next season. I already have Carlos Hyde, Christine Michael, Robert Turbin, Davante Adams, Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, Devonta Freeman, and Cody Latimer on my roster. Are there any other potential projected cuts and/or pending free agents that could open a starting RB or WR opportunity for 2015?
William D'allesandro (Huntington, NY)
I think you’re set. Hyde, Michael, Adams, Freeman, Latimer. You have a big chunk of the young, possible breakout guys. You’re not going to be cutting any of those guys in a dynasty format. I’m not a huge fan of Khiry Robinson. To me, he looks like a guy who will always be a contributor, but I don’t see him ever become a top-15 back. I think I’ve got him at about 60th among running backs on my dynasty board. But he’s alright, and he fits nicely onto your roster (since you also have Ingram). You can double-check your roster against the dynasty rankings I’ve posted the last two Wednesdays, but I think your roster is in place.
Question 7
How much does losing Keenan Allen hurt Rivers? I have to start either Phillip or Orton. I am in the RTSports Championship and in the mix for 200 grand. With so many injuries as of late it's hard to keep up. This will be my only lineup dilemma for the rest of the year Ian. Need the proper help please? Thanks for getting me this close. Jordy, Megatron, Forsett, Olsen, Edelman, and T.Y. will take me to the promised land hopefully! Go Bills!
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
Both of these quarterbacks have thrown more than one touchdown in only one of their last six games, so with both there’s the potential you’re left with a disappointing 220 yards and a touchdown. But you’ve got to pick one. I’m going with Rivers. To me, San Francisco looks like a team that is falling apart, with all the injuries, infighting and drama. The coach already has his bags packed, and the team has been eliminated from playoff contention. I was surprised when San Francisco opened as a 2-point favorite; I think the Chargers are winning that game, and it’s not much of a road trip – just down the freeway. With the Bills, you’ve got a team traveling all the way across the country, and the Raiders have been surprisingly functional at home recently, with wins over the 49ers and Kansas City. For the year, Oakland’s defense has been about as good as San Francisco’s against the pass. The 49ers are allowing 18 fewer yards per game (238-220), but just one fewer touchdown pass. If you leave the defenses out of it and just look at the offenses, the Chargers are definitely a lot better than the Bills – 8 more touchdown passes and 22 more passing yards per game. I don’t think losing Keenan Allen is that big of a deal. They’ve still Malcom Floyd, Antonio Gates and Eddie Royal. They’ve got running backs who can catch. They’ll plug Seyi Ajirotutu into the lineup, and they might do more with Ladarius Green, who’s been underused all year. Overall, San Diego’s offense has scored 27 TD passes vs. only 5 TD runs. The San Francisco defense is sitting at a 24-6 ratio, so that’s a combined 51 TD passes vs. only 11 runs. So it looks very likely, I think, that Rivers gets you 2 TDs. For the other game, I see Buffalo (19-6) and Oakland (25-14) combining for 44 TD passes and 20 TD runs. So I see Orton as more of a 1-2 TD pass guy. Maybe he gets up to 2, but there’s a chance it will be just one. Ultimately, you just have to pick a guy. I think your odds are better if you go with Rivers. T.Y. Hilton hasn’t practiced all week, so you’ll need to be prepared to play without him.
Question 8
I've ridden the Index to the Finals for many years and I know the saying "don't sit your studs" but given that it is championship week, I am struggling with sitting down Matt Forte given the state of the Bears' offense and his ineptitude against the Lions in Week 5 (5 carries for 6 yards and 6 catches). It's a PPR/Keeper league so my options at running back are Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, C.J. Anderson or Giovani Bernard, starting two. If I promote C.J. from the flex spot, that leaves Forte, Bernard, Moncrief or John Brown at Flex. What's your take? Thanks for all your help.
Anthony Cillis (Lagrangeville, NY)
Forte, Charles, Anderson. All three of those guys are starting. Two as running backs, and one in the flex. They’re all starting running backs who are playing well, and they’re all catching passes. With the Bears, they’ve got the quarterback switch from Cutler to Clausen, but I don’t now that has much of an impact on Forte. I mean, Cutler hasn’t been playing well for a couple of months anyway. How much worse do you think Clausen is going to be? The Lions have the great run defense, so there’s a chance Forte might run for only 20-40 yards, but he’s still going to catch a bunch of dumpoff balls. Right now he’s on pace to finish the season with 100 catches. He’s catching just over 6 balls per game. Bernard isn’t even in the mix; he’s struggled pretty much all year. If you plug in somebody else at the last minute at flex, it would be Donte Moncrief. I don’t think T.Y. Hilton will play in that game, so Moncrief should be the No. 1 receiver.