A lot of guys will go into fantasy drafts locked into the premise that the quarterback position must be filled later. There’s always some good ones available in the 6th, 7th or 8th round, so best to avoid trying to go after a franchise-type option with a top 10 or 15 pick.
Fair enough. If you happen to hit on a LeVeon Bell or DeMarco Murray, then you look like a genius. But far more often, you miss on one (or both) of those running backs you take in the first two rounds. And there’s a difference between taking one of the top few quarterbacks and trying to cobble together a committee of lesser-type guys like Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler.
In today’s wide-open NFL, a few quarterbacks every year are putting up mind-blowing stats. Think 40-plus touchdowns and 5,000 yards. And those kind of levels simply don’t get reached by guys like Dalton, Tannehill and Cutler.
If you want elite numbers, you have to go after the true franchise quarterbacks, and we all know who those guys are.
In the last six seasons, 15 quarterbacks have put up 36-plus touchdowns in a season. (That’s combined rushing and receiving.) All but two of those seasons have been compiled by the league’s four elite passers – Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers.
The two exceptions are Matthew Stafford, who zoomed up to 41 touchdowns in his third year after playing in only three games in 2010. And Andrew Luck moved up from 23 to 40 touchdown passes last year. Luck now looks like one of those franchise HOF-type guys now.
Scoring systems and league formats vary, but in general I think the top passers are probably being selected too late in most fantasy drafts. In 2014, Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Luck were probably all undervalued. Brees had an off year, throwing only 33 TDs, but at least he still averaged 310 passing yards per game.
| QUARTERBACKS WITH 36-PLUS TOUCHDOWNS SINCE 2009 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | TDP | TDR |
| 2009 | Drew Brees, Saints | 16 | 34 | 2 |
| 2010 | Tom Brady, Patriots | 16 | 36 | 1 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers, Packers | 16 | 45 | 3 |
| 2011 | Drew Brees, Saints | 16 | 46 | 1 |
| 2011 | Tom Brady, Patriots | 16 | 39 | 3 |
| 2011 | Matthew Stafford, Lions | 16 | 41 | 0 |
| 2012 | Drew Brees, Saints | 16 | 43 | 1 |
| 2012 | Aaron Rodgers, Packers | 16 | 39 | 2 |
| 2012 | Tom Brady, Patriots | 16 | 34 | 4 |
| 2012 | Peyton Manning, Broncos | 16 | 37 | 0 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning, Broncos | 16 | 55 | 1 |
| 2013 | Drew Brees, Saints | 16 | 39 | 3 |
| 2014 | Andrew Luck, Colts | 16 | 40 | 3 |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers, Packers | 16 | 38 | 2 |
| 2014 | Peyton Manning, Broncos | 16 | 39 | 0 |
—Ian Allan