I see on the Sports Illustrated website that Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht was wondering out loud about the 18 interceptions Jameis Winston threw last year. In the last 20 years, only one quarterback selected in the first round has thrown more picks in his final college season. “Usually you find when a guy throws interceptions in college that doesn’t go away in the pros,” Licht says.
Marcus Mariota, on the other hand, threw only 4 interceptions in 445 attempts at Oregon last year, which is better than any quarterback selected in the first round in the last 20 years.
But is there anything to Licht’s theory? That is, is it true that if a player throws interceptions in college, that tends to carry over and continue to plague him in the pros?
Not as far as I can see.
Matt Ryan threw 19 interceptions his final year at Boston College (the most of anyone), and he hasn’t tended to be a quarterback who turns it over.
Among the other 10 quarterbacks who threw at least 11 interceptions their final year of college, I see Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Chad Pennington and Ryan Tannehill. All were good at avoiding turnovers in the pros.
Here are the first-round quarterbacks since 1995 – the 50 selected in the first round, plus Winston and Mariota. They’re ranked in order of interception percentage their final year of college, with the best quarterbacks near the top, and the worst near the bottom.
Among guys with at least 100 pass attempts in their third season in the pros, the best 10 are in bold. The worst ten (against, 3rd year and looking at interceptions only) have a block dot in front of their name.
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS -- INTERCEPTIONS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Att | Int | Pct |
2010 | Sam Bradford | 69 | 0 | 0.00% |
2015 | MARCUS MARIOTA | 445 | 4 | 0.90% |
2014 | Teddy Bridgewater | 427 | 4 | 0.94% |
2008 | Joe Flacco | 521 | 5 | 0.96% |
2005 | Alex Smith | 317 | 4 | 1.26% |
2004 | Philip Rivers | 483 | 7 | 1.45% |
2002 | David Carr | 476 | 7 | 1.47% |
2012 | Robert Griffin III | 406 | 6 | 1.48% |
2007 | Brady Quinn | 467 | 7 | 1.50% |
2002 | Joey Harrington | 322 | 5 | 1.55% |
2010 | Tim Tebow | 314 | 5 | 1.59% |
1999 | Daunte Culpepper | 402 | 7 | 1.74% |
2006 | Matt Leinart | 431 | 8 | 1.86% |
2011 | • Blaine Gabbert | 475 | 9 | 1.89% |
2006 | Jay Cutler | 462 | 9 | 1.95% |
1999 | Donovan McNabb | 251 | 5 | 1.99% |
1997 | Jim Druckenmiller | 250 | 5 | 2.00% |
2004 | • Ben Roethlisberger | 495 | 10 | 2.02% |
2003 | Byron Leftwich | 491 | 10 | 2.04% |
2003 | Carson Palmer | 489 | 10 | 2.04% |
2009 | Josh Freeman | 382 | 8 | 2.09% |
1999 | Akili Smith | 325 | 7 | 2.15% |
2004 | Eli Manning | 441 | 10 | 2.27% |
2012 | • Brandon Weeden | 564 | 13 | 2.30% |
1998 | Peyton Manning | 477 | 11 | 2.31% |
2007 | • JaMarcus Russell | 342 | 8 | 2.34% |
2014 | Blake Bortles | 382 | 9 | 2.36% |
2003 | • Kyle Boller | 421 | 10 | 2.38% |
2012 | Andrew Luck | 404 | 10 | 2.48% |
2011 | Cam Newton | 280 | 7 | 2.50% |
2005 | Aaron Rodgers | 316 | 8 | 2.53% |
2013 | EJ Manuel | 387 | 10 | 2.58% |
2005 | Jason Campbell | 270 | 7 | 2.59% |
2009 | Matthew Stafford | 383 | 10 | 2.61% |
1995 | • Kerry Collins | 264 | 7 | 2.65% |
1998 | • Ryan Leaf | 375 | 10 | 2.67% |
2011 | Christian Ponder | 299 | 8 | 2.68% |
2011 | Jake Locker | 332 | 9 | 2.71% |
1999 | • Tim Couch | 553 | 15 | 2.71% |
2009 | Mark Sanchez | 366 | 10 | 2.73% |
2000 | Chad Pennington | 433 | 12 | 2.77% |
2012 | Ryan Tannehill | 531 | 15 | 2.82% |
2002 | Patrick Ramsey | 449 | 13 | 2.90% |
2008 | Matt Ryan | 654 | 19 | 2.91% |
2014 | Johnny Manziel | 429 | 13 | 3.03% |
2006 | • Vince Young | 325 | 10 | 3.08% |
1999 | Cade McNown | 323 | 10 | 3.10% |
1995 | Steve McNair | 530 | 17 | 3.21% |
2004 | J.P. Losman | 422 | 14 | 3.32% |
2003 | • Rex Grossman | 503 | 17 | 3.38% |
2001 | Michael Vick | 161 | 6 | 3.73% |
2015 | JAMEIS WINSTON | 467 | 18 | 3.85% |
—Ian Allan